|
Summary ratios for the week of July 10 |
||||||
|
(P/E ratios based on annualizing the March quarter, unless otherwise noted) |
||||||
|
VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
|
Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
|
|
Summary -- scheduled for week of July 10 |
||||||
|
Allied World AssurcAWH |
$2,095 |
5.2 |
228 |
1.2 |
1.2 |
15% |
|
property, casualty, reinsurance |
Post-IPO shrs: 59mm |
|||||
|
Cowen Group (COWN) |
$300 |
0.7 |
33 |
1.4 |
1.9 |
75% |
|
investment bank |
2005 & March qtr results are proforma |
Post-IPO shrs: 20mm |
||||
|
Valero GP Holdings VEH |
$978 |
not an operating co |
2.4 |
2.4 |
41% |
|
|
pipeline spin-off from NYSE:VLI |
Post-IPO shrs: 42.5mm |
|||||
|
========================================================================= |
||||||
|
SEARCH BY COMPANY |
Use 'Edit, find on this page' to search for companies |
|||||
|
for analysis |
scheduled below |
|||||
|
========================================================================= |
||||||
|
Analysis -- week of July 10 |
||||||
|
Allied World Assurance (AWH) |
AWH, C+, 7 |
|||||
|
property, casualty, reinsurance |
Post-IPO shrs: 59mm |
|||||
|
Hamilton HM 12, Bermuda |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
Mar 31 qtr |
IPO Mkt |
|
|
Gross Premiums ($mm) |
$1,573 |
$1,708 |
$1,560 |
$498 |
Cap (mm) |
|
|
Net income (loss) $mm |
$288.0 |
$197.0 |
($160.0) |
$98.0 |
$2,095 |
|
|
Net income % |
18.3% |
11.5% |
-10.3% |
19.7% |
@$35.5 |
|
|
Combined ratio* |
84.9% |
95.9% |
124.4% |
85.1% |
||
|
*Exp & loss |
||||||
|
VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
|
Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
|
|
Allied World AssurcAWH |
$2,095 |
5.2 |
228 |
1.2 |
1.2 |
15% |
|
SCORECARD |
Mgt |
Market |
Market Do- |
Proprie- |
Total |
|
|
1-5, 5 is high |
Growth |
mination |
tary |
rating |
||
|
20 is perfect |
2 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
7 |
|
|
Dividend policy |
||||||
|
The board of directors currently intends to authorize the payment of a quarterly cash |
||||||
|
dividend of approximately $0.13 per common share to shareholders of record, beginning |
||||||
|
in the first full fiscal quarter following the completion of this IPO |
||||||
|
Business |
||||||
|
. Underwrites a direct property and casualty insurance as well as reinsurance through |
||||||
|
operations in Bermuda, the United States, Ireland and the United Kingdom. |
||||||
|
. Operates in three geographic markets: Bermuda, Europe and the United States. |
||||||
|
. Formed in November 2001by a group of investors, including AIG, Chubb, the Goldman |
||||||
|
Sachs Funds and the Securitas Capital Fund, to respond to a global reduction in |
||||||
|
insurance industry capital and a disruption in available insurance and reinsurance |
||||||
|
coverage |
||||||
|
. 235 full-time employees worldwide |
||||||
|
. Total net loss for the year ended December 31, 2005 was $160 million, of which $456 |
||||||
|
million in property losses related to Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma |
||||||
|
Focus |
||||||
|
. Since formation in November 2001, has focused on the direct insurance markets. |
||||||
|
. Direct insurance is insurance sold by an insurer that contracts directly with an insured, |
||||||
|
as distinguished from reinsurance, which is insurance sold by an insurer that contracts |
||||||
|
with another insurer. |
||||||
|
Business mix |
||||||
|
. For the year ended December 31, 2005, direct property insurance, direct casualty |
||||||
|
insurance and reinsurance accounted for approximately 26.5%, 40.6% and 32.9%, |
||||||
|
respectively, of total gross premiums written of $1,560 million. |
||||||
|
. For the three months ended March 31, 2006, direct property insurance, direct casualty |
||||||
|
insurance and reinsurance accounted for approximately 24.1%, 26.2% and 49.7%, |
||||||
|
respectively, of total gross premiums written of $498 million. |
||||||
|
. On a written basis, the business mix is more heavily weighted to reinsurance during the |
||||||
|
first three months of the year due to the large number of reinsurance accounts with |
||||||
|
effective dates in January. |
||||||
|
AWH ratings |
||||||
|
. The principal insurance subsidiary, Allied World Assurance Company, Ltd, and other |
||||||
|
insurance subsidiaries currently have an "A" (Excellent; 3rd of 16 categories) financial |
||||||
|
strength rating from A.M. Best. |
||||||
|
Competition |
||||||
|
Competes with major U.S. and non-U.S. insurers and reinsurers, including other |
||||||
|
Bermuda-based insurers and reinsurers, on an international and regional basis. |
||||||
|
. Since September 2001, a number of new Bermuda-based insurance and reinsurance |
||||||
|
companies have been formed and some of those companies compete in the same |
||||||
|
market segments in which AWH operates. |
||||||
|
. In the direct insurance business, competes with insurers that provide property and |
||||||
|
casualty-based lines of insurance such as: ACE Limited, AIG, Axis Capital Holdings |
||||||
|
Limited, Chubb, Endurance Specialty Holdings Ltd., Factory Mutual Insurance Company, |
||||||
|
HCC Insurance Holdings, Inc., Lloyd’s of London, Munich Re Group, Swiss Reinsurance, |
||||||
|
XL Capital Ltd, and Zurich Financial Services. |
||||||
|
. In the reinsurance business, competes with reinsurers that provide property and |
||||||
|
casualty-based lines of reinsurance such as: ACE Limited, Arch Capital Group Ltd., |
||||||
|
Berkshire Hathaway, Inc., Endurance Specialty Holdings Ltd., Everest Re Group, Ltd., |
||||||
|
Lloyd’s of London, Montpelier Re Holdings Ltd., Munich Re Group, PartnerRe Ltd., |
||||||
|
Platinum Underwriters Holdings, Ltd., RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd., Swiss Re, |
||||||
|
Transatlantic Holdings, Inc. and XL Capital Ltd. |
||||||
|
. In addition, risk-linked securities and derivative and other non-traditional risk transfer |
||||||
|
mechanisms and vehicles are being developed and offered by other parties, including |
||||||
|
entities other than insurance and reinsurance companies. The availability of these non |
||||||
|
traditional products could reduce the demand for traditional insurance and reinsurance. A |
||||||
|
number of new, proposed or potential industry or legislative developments could further |
||||||
|
increase competition in the industry. |
||||||
|
Use of $287mm in IPO proceeds |
||||||
|
. Half of the net proceeds to repay a portion of a bank loan |
||||||
|
. Remainder for general corporate purposes, including to increase the capital of |
||||||
|
subsidiaries |
||||||
|
Balance sheet overview |
||||||
|
. As of December 31, 2005, had $6,610 million of total assets and $1,420 million of |
||||||
|
shareholders’ equity. |
||||||
|
. As of March 31, 2006, had $6,642 million of total assets and $1,479 million of |
||||||
|
shareholders’ equity. |
||||||
|
. Not currently encumbered by asbestos, environmental or any other similar exposures. |
||||||
|
================================================ |
||||||
|
Cowen Group (COWN) |
COWN |
|||||
|
investment bank |
2005 & March qtr results are proforma |
Post-IPO shrs: 20mm |
||||
|
New York, NY |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
Mar 31 qtr |
IPO Mkt |
|
|
Revenue ($mm) |
$293 |
$293 |
$285 |
$101 |
Cap (mm) |
|
|
Employee comp % |
53% |
58% |
67% |
68% |
$300 |
|
|
Operating income % |
-25.3% |
20.1% |
-6.2% |
4.2% |
@$20 |
|
|
Net income (loss) $mm |
($74.4) |
$55.1 |
($19.2) |
$2.3 |
||
|
Net income % |
-25.4% |
18.8% |
-6.7% |
2.3% |
||
|
One time sale of NYSE seats-pretax not included in March 31 numbers |
$24.8 |
|||||
|
Note: March, 2006 quarter assumes 45% tax rate, which COWN indicates is the go forward rate |
||||||
|
VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
|
Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
|
|
Cowen Group (COWN) |
$300 |
0.7 |
33 |
1.4 |
1.9 |
75% |
|
SCORECARD |
Mgt |
Market |
Market Do- |
Proprie- |
Total |
|
|
1-5, 5 is high |
Growth |
mination |
tary |
rating |
||
|
20 is perfect |
2 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
6 |
|
|
Compare & Contrast |
||||||
|
VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price |
|
Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
July 10 |
|
|
Cowen Group (COWN) |
$300 |
0.7 |
33 |
1.4 |
1.9 |
|
|
Merril Lynch (MER) |
$65,750 |
1.1 |
34.6 |
1.7 |
2.1 |
$71.16 |
|
Goldman (GS) |
$64,670 |
0.9 |
6.6 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
$150.00 |
|
Greenhil (GHL) |
$1,640 |
4.1 |
14.5 |
12.0 |
12.0 |
$56.24 |
|
Lazard (LAZ) |
$1,400 |
1.0 |
17.8 |
-1.7 |
-1.7 |
$37.21 |
|
Piper Jaffray (PJC) |
$1,210 |
1.3 |
12.6 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
$58.00 |
|
TWeisel (TWPG) |
$408 |
1.3 |
5.1 |
2.4 |
2.4 |
$18.32 |
|
Note: TWPG income for the March, 2006 quarter includes $11mm in income tax beneit |
||||||
|
TWPG's P/E ratio assuming a 45% tax rate for the March quarter is 78 |
||||||
|
Overview |
||||||
|
., This appears to be a forced spin-off because COWN has become an orphan within |
||||||
|
Societe Generate and is ‘not part of its future strategy’ |
||||||
|
. With a net worth of only $207mm, COWN is not well capitalized, relative to its major |
||||||
|
competition, and may suffer competitively as a result.. |
||||||
|
. Plus, the IPO market now is so competitive that majors are competing on almost every |
||||||
|
potential IPO deal, and there are very few smaller opportunities where COWN can effectively |
||||||
|
differentiate itself for competitive advantage. |
||||||
|
. Trends in both investment banking and trading commissions are both flowing against |
||||||
|
COWN: COWN is trying to swim upstream while the current is taking them downstream, |
||||||
|
not good. |
||||||
|
Business |
||||||
|
. Investment bank providing research, sales and trading and investment banking services |
||||||
|
to companies and institutional investor clients |
||||||
|
. Primarily in the healthcare, technology, media and telecommunications and consumer |
||||||
|
sectors. |
||||||
|
Trends are against COWN |
||||||
|
Investment banking trends |
||||||
|
. In 2005, COWN’s year-over-year investment banking revenue growth was lower than |
||||||
|
that at their larger competitors in part because |
||||||
|
. Larger competitors benefited from an increase in leveraged buyouts, which are less |
||||||
|
prevalent in COWN’s target sectors than in other sectors of the economy |
||||||
|
. Debt issuances, which COWN does not currently offer. |
||||||
|
Commission trading trends |
||||||
|
. Increased competition in the brokerage industry has led to pricing pressures on |
||||||
|
commissions. |
||||||
|
. The entrance of new competitors such as electronic communication networks into the |
||||||
|
brokerage sector has resulted in commission rates declining over the past five years. |
||||||
|
Market Opportunity and Focus |
||||||
|
. Focus on the healthcare, technology, media and telecommunications and consumer |
||||||
|
sectors |
||||||
|
. Target sectors accounted for $60 billion, or 37%, of the public equity capital markets |
||||||
|
financings and $563 billion, or 46%, of merger and acquisition activity during 2005. |
||||||
|
. These sectors also accounted for 50% of the market capitalization of the Russell 2000 |
||||||
|
in 2005; however, because COWN is primarily focused on the healthcare, technology, |
||||||
|
media and telecommunications and consumer sectors of the economy, COWN’s period |
||||||
|
over-period operating results from time to time have been different from those indicated |
||||||
|
by broader market trends. |
||||||
|
History |
||||||
|
. Founded in 1918 in New York City |
||||||
|
. Acquired by Société Générale in 1998 |
||||||
|
Reason’s for the spin-off |
||||||
|
. Société Générale has elected to divest the COWN business primarily because Société |
||||||
|
Générale does not believe that COWN’;s business is one of its core businesses or that |
||||||
|
COWN is part of its future strategy. |
||||||
|
. This is due, in part, to the different client bases of Société Générale and COWN and the |
||||||
|
different needs of those clients. COWN targets small- and mid-capitalization clients and |
||||||
|
Société Générale targets a client base of larger capitalization clients. In addition, since its |
||||||
|
acquisition of COWN in 1998, COWN has had limited success in cross-selling products |
||||||
|
and services of Société Générale, such as commercial banking products, cash |
||||||
|
management services and derivative products. In addition, Société Générale believes |
||||||
|
there is limited future potential for cross-selling COWN’s investment banking services to |
||||||
|
its corporate clients. |
||||||
|
Spin-off |
||||||
|
If the underwriters do not exercise their overallotment option, investors in COWN, Société |
||||||
|
Générale and COWN senior employees would own, respectively, 74.8%, 11.2% and |
||||||
|
14.0% of COWN’s common stock |
||||||
|
Competition |
||||||
|
. In recent years, there has been substantial consolidation and convergence among |
||||||
|
companies in the financial services industry, including among many former competitors. |
||||||
|
. In particular, a number of large commercial banks have established or acquired broker |
||||||
|
dealers or have merged with other financial institutions. |
||||||
|
. Many of these firms have the ability to offer a wider range of products than COWN |
||||||
|
offers, including loans, deposit taking, insurance and asset management. |
||||||
|
. Many of these firms also have more extensive investment banking services, which may |
||||||
|
enhance their competitive position. |
||||||
|
. They also have the ability to support investment banking and securities products with |
||||||
|
commercial banking, insurance and other financial services revenue in an effort to gain |
||||||
|
market share, which could result in pricing pressure in our business. |
||||||
|
. This trend toward consolidation and convergence has significantly increased the capital |
||||||
|
base and geographic reach of COWN’s competitors. |
||||||
|
Use of IPO proceeds |
||||||
|
. COWN will not receive any proceeds from the sale of shares of common stock being |
||||||
|
offered by SG Americas Securities Holdings. |
||||||
|
. SG Americas Securities Holdings will receive all net proceeds from the sale of shares of |
||||||
|
COWN common stock in this offering. |
||||||
|
======================================================== |
||||||
|
Valero GP Holdings VEH |
VEH, C+, 7 |
|||||
|
pipeline spin-off from NYSE:VLI |
Post-IPO shrs: 42.5mm |
|||||
|
San Antonio, Texas |
see note below |
IPO Mkt |
||||
|
Gross Premiums ($mm) |
not an operating company |
Cap (mm) |
||||
|
Net income (loss) $mm |
$978 |
|||||
|
Net income % |
@$23 |
|||||
|
Note: |
||||||
|
Limited Partnership Units spin-off from NYSE:VLI |
||||||
|
. VEH anticipates an initial quarterly distribution of $0.30 per unit, or $1.20 per unit on an |
||||||
|
annualized basis, which is a 5.3% return at the price range midpoint of $23 |
||||||
|
VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
|
Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
|
|
Valero GP Holdings VEH |
$978 |
see above note |
2.4 |
2.4 |
41% |
|
|
Business |
||||||
|
. VEH owns the general partner of Valero L.P., as well as the incentive distribution rights |
||||||
|
and a 21.4% limited partner interest in Valero L.P. , a publicly traded Delaware limited |
||||||
|
partnership NYSE: VLI |
||||||
|
. VEH does not own any operating assets directly. |
||||||
|
The overall parent |
||||||
|
Valero Energy Corp. (VLO), $40 billion market cap, 22,000 full time employees |
||||||
|
The direct parent |
||||||
|
Valero L.P. (VLI), $2.3 billion market cap |
||||||
|
. Through its subsidiaries, engages in the transportation of crude oil and refined products, |
||||||
|
and the provision of terminalling and storage services. |
||||||
|
. Operates in four segments: Refined Product Terminals, Refined Product Pipelines, |
||||||
|
Crude Oil Pipelines, and Crude Oil Storage Tanks. |
||||||
|
. The Refined Product Terminals segment provides storage and handling services for |
||||||
|
petroleum products, specialty chemicals, and other liquids, as well as sells bunker fuel |
||||||
|
and provides ancillary services, such as pilotage, tug assistance, line handling, launch |
||||||
|
service, emergency response services, and other ship services. |
||||||
|
Valero LP’s Competition |
||||||
|
Crude oil handling & storage |
||||||
|
. The main competition at Valero L.P.’s St. Eustatius and Point Tupper locations for crude |
||||||
|
oil handling and storage is from "lightering," which is the process by which liquid cargo is |
||||||
|
transferred to smaller vessels, usually while at sea. |
||||||
|
. The price differential between lightering and terminalling is primarily driven by the |
||||||
|
charter rates for vessels of various sizes. Lightering generally takes significantly longer |
||||||
|
than discharging at a terminal. Depending on charter rates, the longer charter period |
||||||
|
associated with lightering is generally offset by various costs associated with terminalling, |
||||||
|
including storage costs, dock charges and spill response fees. |
||||||
|
. However, terminalling is generally safer and reduces the risk of environmental damage |
||||||
|
associated with lightering, provides more flexibility in the scheduling of deliveries and |
||||||
|
allows Valero L.P.’s customers to deliver their products to multiple locations. Lightering in |
||||||
|
U.S. territorial waters creates a risk of liability for owners and shippers of oil under the |
||||||
|
U.S. Oil Pollution Act of 1990 and other state and federal legislation. In Canada, similar |
||||||
|
liability exists under the Canadian Shipping Act. Terminalling also provides customers |
||||||
|
with the ability to access value-added terminal services. |
||||||
|
. Sale of bunker fuel |
||||||
|
. Competes with ports offering bunker fuels to which, or from which, each vessel travels |
||||||
|
or are along the route of travel of the vessel. |
||||||
|
. Valero L.P. also competes with bunker fuel delivery locations around the world. In the |
||||||
|
Western Hemisphere, alternative bunker locations include ports on the U.S. East Coast |
||||||
|
and Gulf Coast and in Panama, Puerto Rico, the Bahamas, Aruba, Curaçao, and Halifax, |
||||||
|
Nova Scotia |
||||||
|
Use of Proceeds |
||||||
|
. VEH will not receive any proceeds from the sale of the units in this offering. |
||||||
|
. All of the units being sold in this offering are being offered by other subsidiaries of |
||||||
|
Valero Energy. |
||||||
|
Debt |
||||||
|
The pro forma total debt as of March 31, 2006 is zero as the result of a planned capital |
||||||
|
contribution to Valero GP Holdings by parent Valero Energy subsidiaries of debt notes. |
||||||
|
======================================================= |
||||||