|
3 OF 3 China IPO files |
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Pre-IPO analysis, grading & scoring |
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|
. Business Model Rating Criteria |
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|
A = high growth market, potential leader; B = more competitive market; C= 'public venture capital' |
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|
. Calculations |
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. IPO Price to annualized Sales Ratio -- (Price / Sales) |
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Numerator |
Denominator |
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IPO market capitalization… |
Annualized Sales (based on recent results) |
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(post-IPO # of shares times mid-point of IPO price range) |
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. IPO Price to annualized Earnings (loss) -- (Price / Earnings) |
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Numerator |
Denominator |
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|
IPO market cap |
Annualized Earnings (loss) from the last quarter |
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|
=================== |
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SEARCH BY COMPANY |
In your browser use 'Edit/Find' to search for companies |
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|
or ticker for analysis |
below |
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|
=================== |
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Qiao Xing-Mobile (QXM) |
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Mobile handsets: C+, 7 |
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May 2, 2007 @ $12 |
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Tongjitang ChiMed (TCM) |
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modernized trad Chinese medicine: C+, 8 |
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March 15, 2007 @ $10 |
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Xinhua Finance (XFML) |
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Chinese media company: B-, 8 |
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March 8, 2007 @ $13 |
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3SBio Inc. (SSRX) |
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Chinese biotech: C+, 7 |
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Feb 6, 2007, @ $16 |
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JA Solar (JASO) |
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China-based solar cells mfg: C, 7 |
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Feb 6, 2007 @ $15.00 |
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|
Solarfun Power (SOLF) |
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solar cells and modules: C+, 7 |
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Dec 20, 2006 @ $12.50 |
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Fuwei Films (FFHL) |
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plastic film for various markets: C+, 6 |
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Dec 18, 2006 @ $8.28 |
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Melco Entertnmnt (MPEL) |
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casino gaming/entertainment in Macau: B-, 8 |
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Dec 18, 2006 @ $19 |
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Trina Solar Ltd (TSL) |
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soilar power modules: C+, 7 |
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Dec 18,, 2007 @ $18.50 |
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|
=================== |
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|
Pre-IPO analysis, grading & scoring |
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|
Qiao Xing-Mobile Com |
QXM, C+, 7 |
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|
Mobile handsets |
Post-IPO shrs: 52.5m |
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|
Beijing, China |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
IPO Mkt |
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|
Rev ($mm) |
$225 |
Cap (mm) |
||||
|
Gross margin % |
12% |
18% |
27% |
$683 |
||
|
Operating profit margin % |
7% |
15% |
21% |
@$13 |
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|
Profit (loss) |
$37 |
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|
Profit (loss) % |
0.0% |
12.4% |
16.4% |
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|
VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
|
Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
|
|
Qiao Xing-Mobile (QXM) |
$683 |
3.0 |
18 |
2.9 |
2.7 |
32% |
|
SCORECARD |
Mgt |
Market |
Market Do- |
Proprie- |
Total |
|
|
1-5, 5 is high |
Growth |
mination |
tary |
rating |
||
|
20 is perfect |
2 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
7 |
|
|
China's tax laws |
||||||
|
. On March 16, 2007, the Enterprise Income Tax Law of the PRC, or the New Tax Law, was |
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|
promulgated. Under the New Tax Law, which will become effective on January 1, 2008, domestic |
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|
enterprises and foreign investment enterprises will be subject to a |
||||||
|
. Unified enterprise income tax rate of 25%, except that enterprises that were approved to be |
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|
established prior to March 16, 2007 may continue to enjoy the existing preferential tax treatments |
||||||
|
until December 31, 2012. Details of the 5-year transitional period arrangement (i.e. from January |
||||||
|
1, 2008 to December 31, 2012) for enterprises approved to be established prior to March 16, 2007 |
||||||
|
are expected to be set out in more detailed implementation rules to be adopted in the future. |
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|
. In addition, certain qualifying high-technology enterprises may still benefit from a preferential |
||||||
|
tax rate of 15% under the New Tax Law. |
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|
Business |
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|
. One of the leading domestic manufacturers of mobile handsets in China in terms of unit sales |
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|
volume. |
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|
. Manufactures and sell mobile handsets based primarily on GSM global cellular technologies. |
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|
Changing sales mix |
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|
. In 2006, 42.8% of total handset revenue was derived from sale of handsets produced at the |
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|
Huizhou facility, 56.3% from those produced through EMS (Electronic Message Service) |
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|
arrangements and 0.9% from those sourced from original design manufacturers, or ODMs. |
||||||
|
. Expects to reduce reliance on EMS (Electronic Message Service) providers and lower product |
||||||
|
costs once the new facility in Huizhou commences operation in the second half of 2007 |
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|
Prior to 2004 |
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|
. Prior to 2004, the substantial majority of our revenue was derived from selling handset products |
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|
sourced from ODMs under the "CECT" brand name. |
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|
. Over the last two years, GXM has gradually increased in-house design and manufacturing |
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|
capabilities. |
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|
Sales |
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|
. Sells products primarily to national and provincial distributors, which resell products to end |
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|
customers in mainland China through their own distribution networks principally composed of |
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|
local distributors and retail outlets. |
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|
. All products are currently sold under the "CECT" brand name. |
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|
Competition |
||||||
|
. While China's mobile handset market is expected to grow significantly, competition is intense |
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|
. The market has become highly fragmented in recent years as an increasing number of handset |
||||||
|
producers have entered the market. |
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|
. Based on MII data, there are currently over 60 mobile handset manufacturers in China. |
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|
. QXM focus's on developing and marketing differentiated products for the Chinese handset |
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|
market. |
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|
. This strategy,according to QXM, has allowed the company to maintain market position while |
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|
avoiding direct competition with mass market competitive products. |
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|
Shareholders |
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|
. Pre-Ipo Qiao Xing Universal Telephone (XING). owns 80.5%. |
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|
. Qiao Xing Universal Telephone, Inc. engages in the manufacture and distribution of |
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|
telecommunications products in the People's Republic China. |
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|
. XING's market cap was $413mm April 26, 2007, but it is not a fully SEC-reporting comany |
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|
. Pre-IPO 19.5% held by two funds |
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|
Use of $134mm in IPO proceeds from sale of 12.5mm shares |
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|
(shareholders intend to sell 4.16mm shares) |
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|
o $44 million to repay shareholder loans to Xing. The shareholder loans from Xing were |
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|
unsecured, non-interest bearing and had no fixed repayment terms |
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|
o $80 million to make loans or capital contributions to CECT, of which (i) $60 million will be |
||||||
|
used to fund working capital requirements in connection with planned capacity expansion and (ii) |
||||||
|
$20 million will be used to purchase equipment for new manufacturing facility in Huizhou. |
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|
=================== |
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|
Tongjitang Chinese Med |
TCM, C+, 8 |
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|
modernized trad Chinese medicine |
Post-IPO shrs: 33.5mm ADS equivalents |
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|
Shenzhen, Guangdong, China |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
IPO Mkt |
||
|
Rev ($mm) |
$62 |
Cap (mm) |
||||
|
Gross profit % |
46% |
59% |
67% |
$536 |
||
|
Profit (loss) ($mm) |
$17.2 |
@$16 |
||||
|
Profit (loss) % |
5% |
32% |
28% |
|||
|
VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
|
Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
|
|
Tongjitang ChiMed TCM |
$536 |
8.6 |
31 |
2.9 |
3.0 |
30% |
|
SCORECARD |
Mgt |
Market |
Market Do- |
Proprie- |
Total |
|
|
1-5, 5 is high |
Growth |
mination |
tary |
rating |
||
|
20 is perfect |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
8 |
|
|
American Depositary Shares, each ADS represents four shares |
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|
Tax issues |
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|
. Currently, Tongjitang Pharmaceutical is entitled to (a) an exemption from the national enterprise |
||||||
|
income tax for 2006 and 2007, and (b) a 7.5% national enterprise income tax rate for 2008, 2009 |
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|
and 2010. |
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|
. After 2010, Tongjitang Pharmaceutical will be subject to a 15.0% tax rate as long as it maintains |
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|
its manufacturing FIE status in the Guiyang economic and technological development zone. |
||||||
|
Uniform tax rate in process |
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|
. However, since China joined the World Trade Organization, or WTO, in November 2001, |
||||||
|
preferential tax treatments have been criticized as not being WTO-compliant. On October 4, 2006, |
||||||
|
China Securities Daily reported that the State Council of China recently approved a draft bill to |
||||||
|
apply a uniform tax rate to both foreign-invested enterprises and domestic enterprises and plans to |
||||||
|
submit this draft bill to the National People's Congress, the Chinese legislature, for review and |
||||||
|
possible enactment in March 2007. |
||||||
|
. According to this report, the uniform tax rates range from 24.0% to 27.0% and there is likely to |
||||||
|
be a three to five year transition period for foreign-invested enterprises during which they would |
||||||
|
be able to continue to enjoy their existing preferential tax treatments. |
||||||
|
. If the uniform tax regime is adopted, then the effective tax rate of Tongjitang Pharmaceutical |
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|
could increase significantly |
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|
Business |
||||||
|
. Specialty pharmaceutical company in China |
||||||
|
. Flagship product, Xianling Gubao, is the leading traditional Chinese medicine for the treatment |
||||||
|
of osteoporosis in China |
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|
. Sales of Xianling Gubao accounted for 68.7%, 66.6% and 77.2% of net revenues in 2004, 2005 |
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|
and 2006, respectively. |
||||||
|
. TCM expects that the sales of Xianling Gubao will continue to comprise a substantial majority of |
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|
revenues in the near future. |
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|
Xianling Gubao product |
||||||
|
Approved in 2002 by the SFDA as both a prescription medicine and an OTC medicine for the |
||||||
|
treatment of osteoporosis. |
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|
> Hospitals. In 2004, 2005 and 2006, 1,602, 1,982 and 2,257 Chinese hospitals, respectively, |
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|
included Xianling Gubao on their lists of approved prescription medicines, or formularies |
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|
. Under the PRC Ministry of Health hospital classification system, the best and largest hospitals in |
||||||
|
China are designated as "Class 3" hospitals, followed by lower-ranked "Class 2" and "Class 1" |
||||||
|
hospitals. |
||||||
|
. Of the formulary hospitals for Xianling Gubao, 361 in 2004 and 441 in 2005 were "Class 3" |
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|
hospitals, representing 38.7% and 46.6% of all "Class 3" hospitals in China, respectively. |
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|
. The number of "Class 3" formulary hospitals for Xianling Gubao increased to 488 in 2006. |
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|
> Retail stocking pharmacies |
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|
. Since May 2004, has also been marketing Xianling Gubao as an OTC medicine to retail |
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|
pharmacies. |
||||||
|
. In 2005 and 2006, over 20,000 and 37,000 retail pharmacies in China stocked Xianling Gubao, |
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|
> National catalog |
||||||
|
. In September 2004, Xianling Gubao was added to the national medicine catalog of the National |
||||||
|
Medical Insurance Program, a government-administered medical insurance program, which is the |
||||||
|
largest in China. |
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|
. As of the end of 2006, the number of participants enrolled in this program was 157.4 million, |
||||||
|
according to a statement made on January 18, 2007 by the Ministry of Labor and Social Security, |
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|
or the MLSS. |
||||||
|
. According to a statement made by the MLSS on February 21, 2006, the Chinese government |
||||||
|
intends to expand program enrollment to 300 million by the end of 2010. |
||||||
|
Seasonal Variations |
||||||
|
Sales of Xianling Gubao are affected by seasonal variations in consumer demand. In most regions |
||||||
|
in China, winter starts in the last quarter of each year. The |
||||||
|
. Lower temperatures in winter normally result in a higher incidence of pain and other symptoms |
||||||
|
associated with osteoporosis, arthritic rheumatism and other bone-related diseases and conditions. |
||||||
|
. As a result, hospitals and retail pharmacies typically experience seasonal peaks in demand for |
||||||
|
Xianling Gubao in the last quarter of each year. |
||||||
|
. Accordingly, hospitals and retail pharmacies begin to stock greater quantities of Xianling Gubao |
||||||
|
in September, and the fourth quarter is our peak season for sales. |
||||||
|
. In the first quarter, strong winter-season sales are usually offset by the slow-down of businesses |
||||||
|
during the Chinese New Year holiday season that effectively lasts more than half a month. |
||||||
|
. During this holiday season, many businesses in China, including retail pharmacies and most |
||||||
|
departments in hospitals, are either closed or substantially reduce the level of their activities |
||||||
|
. Conversely, TCM typically experiences seasonal lows in demand for Xianling Gubao in |
||||||
|
summer, affecting sales in the third quarter |
||||||
|
Intellectual property |
||||||
|
. Owns 17 patents, all of which are registered in the PRC. |
||||||
|
. As of December 31, 2006, we owned six invention patents and 11 external design patents. We |
||||||
|
also have 15 pending invention patent applications in China |
||||||
|
Competition |
||||||
|
. According to the 2006 China Pharmaceutical Market Research Report prepared by Compass |
||||||
|
International, a Beijing-based research company, in 2005 there were over 1,200 traditional |
||||||
|
Chinese medicine manufacturers in China (not including manufacturers of traditional sliced |
||||||
|
herbs). |
||||||
|
. Of these manufacturers, in 2005, large-sized manufacturers contributed to 27.4% of the total |
||||||
|
sales of this sector, compared to 30.3% and 42.3% of sales by small- and medium-sized |
||||||
|
manufacturers, respectively, according to the same research report. |
||||||
|
> TCM faces competition from other China-based manufacturers of traditional Chinese medicines. |
||||||
|
Primary traditional Chinese medicines competing with Xianling Gubao are: |
||||||
|
. Qiang Gu (Bone-Strengthening) Capsules, and |
||||||
|
. Gu Song Bao Capsules/Granules. |
||||||
|
> Qiang Gu Capsules are manufactured by Guizhou Fuhua Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. and Gu Song |
||||||
|
Bao Capsules are manufactured by Beijing Qihuang Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. Both companies are |
||||||
|
PRC domestic pharmaceutical companies. |
||||||
|
. In addition, TCM faces competition from manufacturers of western medicine with similar |
||||||
|
curative effects, which therefore can be used as substitutes for TCM's traditional Chinese |
||||||
|
medicine products. |
||||||
|
. The major western medicines that compete with Xianling Gubao include (1) calcium |
||||||
|
supplements such as Osteoform, Caltrate and Gai Zhong Gai, (2) hormonal replacement therapies |
||||||
|
such as Livial, Premarin, Ipriflavone and Ranoxifene, (3) bisphosphonates such as Fosamax, and |
||||||
|
(4) calcitonin derivatives, such as elcatonin. |
||||||
|
. Except for Gai Zhong Gai, these western medicines are manufactured by the PRC subsidiaries of |
||||||
|
U.S.- or European-based pharmaceutical companies. |
||||||
|
. Many of these western medicines, including calcium supplements and bisphosphonates, are also |
||||||
|
included in the national and provincial medicine catalogs and therefore purchases of them are |
||||||
|
reimbursable to National Insurance Program participants. |
||||||
|
> The following sets forth the primary SFDA-approved medicines that compete with TCM's other |
||||||
|
principal products: |
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|
. Alprazolam (Xanax) |
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|
. Zolpidem (Ambien) |
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|
. Flunarizine (Sibelium) |
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|
Use of $119mm in IPO proceeds |
||||||
|
. US$40.0 million to enhance marketing of Xianling Gubao and other products |
||||||
|
. US$10.0 million to strengthen the research and development infrastructure and broaden and |
||||||
|
commercialize the product pipeline |
||||||
|
. balance to fund working capital and for general corporate purposes, which may include product |
||||||
|
licensing and strategic acquisitions of businesses, business units |
||||||
|
=================== |
||||||
|
Xinhua Finance Media |
XFML, B-, 8 |
|||||
|
Chinese media company. |
Post-IPO ADS equivalents: 68mm |
|||||
|
Shanghai, China |
2006 |
IPO Mkt |
||||
|
Rev ($mm) |
proforma ====> |
$62 |
Cap (mm) |
|||
|
Operating income % |
1% |
$888 |
||||
|
Profit (loss) ($mm) |
($2.2) |
@$13 |
||||
|
Profit (loss) % |
-4% |
|||||
|
The unaudited pro forma condensed consolidated statements of operations for the year ended |
||||||
|
December 31, 2006 present adjustments as if the acquisitions had been consummated on January |
||||||
|
1, 2006., for proforma results see page 11 of the S-1 filed Feb 21, 2007 |
||||||
|
. XFML's consolidated financial statements are prepared and presented in accordance with United |
||||||
|
States generally accepted accounting principles |
||||||
|
VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
|
Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
|
|
Xinhua Finance (XFML) |
$888 |
14.3 |
-404 |
2.8 |
2.8 |
34% |
|
SCORECARD |
Mgt |
Market |
Market Do- |
Proprie- |
Total |
|
|
1-5, 5 is high |
Growth |
mination |
tary |
rating |
||
|
20 is perfect |
2 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
8 |
|
|
Compare & contrast-- with international advertising agencies |
||||||
|
VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price |
|
Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
March 2 |
|
|
Xinhua Finance (XFML) |
$888 |
14.3 |
-404 |
2.8 |
2.8 |
|
|
Interpublic Grp (IPG) |
$5,450 |
0.9 |
-151 |
2.8 |
-5.5 |
$12.36 |
|
Omnicom Group (OMC) |
$17,480 |
1.5 |
20 |
4.5 |
-5.6 |
$103.78 |
|
Publicis Groupe SA (PUB) |
$8,290 |
1.5 |
14 |
n/a |
n/a |
$45.13 |
|
Note: valuation ratios for XFML are closest to IPG |
||||||
|
. Same price-to-book value of 2.8 |
||||||
|
. Looks like XFML mis-stated its price-to-tangible book value ratio |
||||||
|
. XFML's comparative price to sales ratios appears quite high |
||||||
|
Summary comments: |
||||||
|
. A China-based advertising agency with increasing critical mass, could become a leader in the |
||||||
|
business and financial media areas, focused on an affluent segment of China's market. |
||||||
|
. Right now most revenue (76%) is from advertising agency-related sources |
||||||
|
. On a combined basis XFML also generates and markets its own media content, although that |
||||||
|
division's revenue doesn't yet make a significant contribution |
||||||
|
. Strong, unique agreements to sell advertising space, some exclusively, see 'strategic |
||||||
|
partnerships' below |
||||||
|
. Consolidated financial statements present in accordance with United States generally accepted |
||||||
|
accounting principles (GAAP), which is a good sign for the investment community in the United |
||||||
|
States |
||||||
|
. Valuation ratios seem high |
||||||
|
Business |
||||||
|
. Established on November 7, 2005 by the parent, Xinhua Finance Limited. Acquired companies |
||||||
|
to build an integrated platform of media products and services |
||||||
|
. Outlets reach an estimated 210 million potential television viewers, a potential listening audience |
||||||
|
of 33 million people, and the readers of leading magazines and newspapers. |
||||||
|
2006 Sources of Revenue |
||||||
|
And % of revenues for 2006) plus cost of revenues (% of revenues) |
||||||
|
o advertising services, 76.1%--47% |
||||||
|
o advertising sales, 11.3%--3.2% |
||||||
|
o content production, 11.1%--4.8% |
||||||
|
o publishing services, 1.5%--2.4% |
||||||
|
Five operating groups |
||||||
|
o Advertising |
||||||
|
which refers to XFML's advertising agency that creates and places advertising for television, print |
||||||
|
media and campus billboards; |
||||||
|
o Media production |
||||||
|
which refers to the in-house production studios that create and produce a diverse array of high |
||||||
|
quality programs, including business, entertainment, educational and animation shows; |
||||||
|
o Broadcasting |
||||||
|
which refers to the distribution of programming through Inner Mongolia Satellite Television; |
||||||
|
production and syndication of the Fortune China series of financial programs, including Fortune |
||||||
|
Morning 7 a.m., a popular financial news programs in China; and the production and distribution |
||||||
|
of bilingual content for China Radio International's EasyFM stations in Beijing and Shanghai; |
||||||
|
o Print |
||||||
|
which refers to XFML's exclusive rights to sell advertising for and provide management and |
||||||
|
information consulting services to, Money Journal magazine and the Economic Observer |
||||||
|
newspaper; |
||||||
|
o Research |
||||||
|
which refers to XFML's market research group that provides research services on products, |
||||||
|
advertisements and markets. |
||||||
|
The biggest component is advertising services, 76% of revenues |
||||||
|
XFML generates advertising services in several way |
||||||
|
o Acts as an advertising agent to place advertisements on certain programs aired by Beijing |
||||||
|
Television Station and other television stations, on billboards on some university campuses in |
||||||
|
Shanghai and in certain print and electronic media (by the advertising group); |
||||||
|
o Designs and produces television, print and billboard advertisements (by the advertising group); |
||||||
|
o Markets services, primarily events organization (by the print group, the broadcasting group and |
||||||
|
the advertising group); |
||||||
|
o Research services (by the research group); and |
||||||
|
o Advertising, sponsorship and sponsored programming on Inner Mongolia Satellite Television |
||||||
|
and provision of content and advisory services to Shanghai Camera (by the broadcasting group). |
||||||
|
Strategic partnerships |
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|
> Some of these key contracts have long terms, while others have short terms ranging from one |
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year to a few years and will need renewal. The longer term contracts, which all expire in 2014 or |
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later, or have no expiration, include, but are not limited to, the following: |
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o agreements to provide consulting and advisory services to, offer content to, and be the exclusive |
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external advertising agent for, Shanghai Camera Media Investment Co., Ltd., or Shanghai Camera, |
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which has the exclusive rights to sell advertising for and provides most of the content of Inner |
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Mongolia Satellite Television; |
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o agreements with Economic Observer Press Office that allow us to have the exclusive rights to |
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sell advertising for the Economic Observer and to provide management and information |
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consulting services; |
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o agreement with the exclusive advertising agent for China Radio International that allow us to |
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have the exclusive rights to sell advertising for and the right to provide content to its EasyFM |
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stations in Beijing and Shanghai. We intend to only provide non-news content pursuant to this |
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agreement; and |
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o agreement with Money Journal Press Office that allows us to have the exclusive rights to sell |
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advertising for, and to provide management and information consulting services to, Money |
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|
Journal. |
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> Shorter term contracts, which expire in 2009 or earlier, include, but are not limited to, the |
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following: |
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o agreement with Hunan Television Station that allows us to broadcast Fortune Morning 7 a.m. on |
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Hunan Satellite Television; |
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o agreement with Dow Jones that allows Money Journal to publish Dow Jones content; and |
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o agreement with Beijing Television Station's advertising agents that allow us to act as advertising |
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agent for certain programs. |
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> XFML's business relies on certain key contracts to which it is not a party. Instead, XFML has |
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contracts with the companies that in turn have those key contracts with third parties. The contracts |
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XFML has allow XFML to benefit financially and strategically from its contracting |
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|
counterparties' roles in the following key contracts: |
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|
o contracts with Shanghai Camera, which has the exclusive rights to sell advertising for and |
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|
provides most of the content of Inner Mongolia Satellite Television under a contract it has with |
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|
Inner Mongolia Television Station; |
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|
o contracts with Beijing Guoguang Guangrong Advertising Co., Ltd., or Guoguang Guangrong, |
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|
the exclusive advertising agent for China Radio International's domestic stations, giving XFML |
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|
the exclusive rights to sell advertising for and the rights to provide content to the EasyFM radio |
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