|
Financial Performance & Scoring -- © 2006 Gaskins IPO Desktop/IPOdesktop |
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Pre-IPO analysis, grading & scoring -- updated Nov 3 |
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. Business Model Rating Criteria |
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A = high growth market, potential leader; B = more competitive market; C= 'public venture capital' |
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. Calculations |
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. IPO Price to annualized Sales Ratio -- (Price / Sales) |
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Numerator |
Denominator |
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IPO market capitalization… |
Annualized Sales (last six month's revenues times 2) |
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(post-IPO # of shares times mid-point of IPO price range) |
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. IPO Price to annualized Earnings (loss) -- (Price / Earnings) |
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Numerator |
Denominator |
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IPO market cap |
Annualized Earnings (loss) from the last quarter |
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========================================================================= |
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SEARCH BY COMPANY |
In your browser use 'Edit/Find' to search for companies |
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or ticker for analysis |
scheduled below |
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========================================================================= |
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Summary ratios for the week of Nov 6 (IPOs not previously analyzed, scored & graded) |
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(P/E ratios based on annualizing recent results, see notes) |
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VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
|
Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
|
|
ACA Capital (ACA) |
$589 |
1.4 |
11 |
1.2 |
1.2 |
29% |
|
financial guaranty ins & asset mgt: C+, 7 |
Post-IPO shrs:14.9mm |
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|
ActivBiotics (ACTV) |
$194 |
n/a |
-10 |
3.2 |
3.1 |
27% |
|
biotech-inflammatory/bacterial: C, 5 |
Post-IPO shrs:14.9mm |
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|
Canadian Solar (CSIQ) |
$382 |
9.7 |
53 |
3.8 |
3.8 |
28% |
|
solar module products: C+, 7 |
Post-IPO shrs:27.3mm |
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|
Capella Education CPLA |
$285 |
1.7 |
28 |
3.7 |
3.7 |
26% |
|
online post-secondary education: C+, 7 |
Post-IPO shrs:15.4mm |
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|
KBW Inc. (KBW) |
$608 |
1.6 |
16 |
1.7 |
1.8 |
21% |
|
invesment bank -- financial services: B-, 7 |
Post-IPO shrs:30.4mm |
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|
Metabolix (MBLX) |
$239 |
31.5 |
-28 |
2.7 |
2.8 |
32% |
|
biotech,environmentally safe alternatives: C, 7 |
Post-IPO shrs:18.4mm |
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|
OneBeacon Insrnce (OB) |
$2,500 |
1.2 |
9 |
1.5 |
2.0 |
20% |
|
property/casualty insurer: C+, 7 |
Post-IPO shrs:100mm |
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|
PhysiciansFormulaPHYS |
$219 |
2.1 |
27 |
3.9 |
-12.8 |
46% |
|
cosmetics-high end mass market: C+, 7 |
Post-IPO shrs13.7mm |
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|
Thermage (THRM) |
$269 |
5.0 |
-35 |
3.6 |
3.6 |
27% |
|
devices for wrinkles: C, 7 |
Post-IPO shrs:22.4mm |
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|
========================================================================= |
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|
SEARCH BY COMPANY |
In your browser use 'Edit/Find' to search for companies |
|||||
|
or ticker for analysis |
scheduled below |
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|
========================================================================= |
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|
ACA Capital Holdings |
ACA, C+, 7 |
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|
financial guaranty ins & asset mgt |
Post-IPO shrs:14.9mm |
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|
New York, NY |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
June 05* |
June 06* |
IPO Mkt |
|
Rev ($mm) |
$112 |
$193 |
$331 |
$145 |
$215 |
Cap (mm) |
|
Premiums earned |
$19 |
$30 |
$33 |
$16 |
$13 |
$589 |
|
Investment income |
$53 |
$126 |
$255 |
$114 |
$160 |
@$16 |
|
Interest Exp ($mm) |
$39 |
$101 |
$214 |
$95 |
$137 |
|
|
Interest % of rev |
35% |
52% |
65% |
66% |
64% |
|
|
Profit (loss) ($mm) |
$20 |
-$4 |
$29 |
$13 |
$26 |
|
|
Profit (loss) % |
18% |
-2% |
9% |
9% |
12% |
|
|
*for the six months ended June 30 |
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|
Six months ended June 30, 2006 compared with six months ended June, 2005 |
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|
Net premiums down, investment income up |
||||||
|
. The growth in total revenues was primarily due to increases in investment income as a result of |
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|
the impact of rising short-term interest rates |
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|
. Aan increase in insured credit swap premiums received in ACA’s Structured Credit line of |
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|
business attributable to its growing volume of business in this area and fee income in the CDO |
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|
Asset Management line of business as a result of increased assets under management and the |
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|
increase in deals closed in 2006 to date compared to the same period in 2005. |
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|
VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
|
Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
|
|
ACA Capital (ACA) |
$589 |
1.4 |
11 |
1.2 |
1.2 |
29% |
|
SCORECARD |
Mgt |
Market |
Market Do- |
Proprie- |
Total |
|
|
1-5, 5 is high |
Growth |
mination |
tary |
rating |
||
|
20 is perfect |
2 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
7 |
|
|
Business |
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|
. Provides financial guaranty insurance products to participants in the global credit derivatives |
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|
markets, structured finance capital markets and municipal finance capital markets. |
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|
. Also provides asset management services to specific segments of the structured finance capital |
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|
markets. |
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|
Three principal operating business lines: |
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|
. Structured Credit |
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|
. Municipal Finance, which are both financial guaranty insurance lines of business, and |
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|
. CDO Asset Management business. |
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|
. Conducts the financial guaranty insurance businesses through ACA Financial Guaranty |
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|
Corporation, ACA "A" rated, regulated insurance subsidiary. |
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|
. Conducts the asset management business through ACA Management, L.L.C., a subsidiary of |
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|
ACA Financial Guaranty. |
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|
. As of June 30, 2006, had insured credit exposure of $31.4 billion and assets under management |
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|
for third parties were $12.1 billion |
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|
Risk |
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|
FASB Financial Guaranty Insurance Review. |
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|
. In January and February 2005, the SEC staff discussed with several financial guaranty industry |
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|
participants the differences in loss reserve recognition practices in the industry. |
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|
. In June 2005, at the request of the SEC, the FASB added a project to their agenda to review and |
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|
codify accounting standards for financial guaranty insurance contracts as they relate to loss |
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|
reserving policies and later added a review of accounting policies in the financial guaranty |
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|
insurance industry as they relate to premium recognition and deferred policy acquisition costs |
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|
. Proposed guidance is expected to be issued by the FASB later in 2006 and final guidance is |
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|
expected to be issued in 2007. When the FASB reaches a conclusion, ACA and the financial |
||||||
|
guaranty insurance industry may have to change certain aspects of ACA’s, and the industry's, |
||||||
|
relevant accounting policies. |
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|
. The impact…could be material. Until the issue is resolved, ACA will continue to apply its |
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|
existing accounting policies as disclosed in the audited financial statements as of December 31, |
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|
2005 and 2004 and for the years ended December 31, 2005, 2004 and 2003. |
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|
. ACA believes that any new guidance would principally impact its Municipal Finance business. |
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|
2004 Recapitalization |
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|
. In 2004, ACA recapitalized its balance sheet and reinforced its credit profile with a $169.7 |
||||||
|
million equity capital investment, including $105.0 million from Bear Stearns Merchant Banking |
||||||
|
and $64.7 million of incremental capital from pre-existing stockholders, management and an |
||||||
|
additional institutional stockholder. |
||||||
|
. This capital raise was necessitated by the revised minimum capital requirements established by |
||||||
|
S&P, which increased requirements had precipitated the placement of ACA Financial Guaranty's |
||||||
|
financial strength rating on CreditWatch negative by S&P. |
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|
. Following the capital raise, ACA Financial Guaranty was removed from CreditWatch negative |
||||||
|
and allowed to retain its "A" financial strength rating by S&P, to expand ACA current businesses |
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|
and to increase ACA’s product offerings |
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|
Employees |
||||||
|
As of June 30, 2006, had 102 full-time employees. |
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|
Competition |
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|
Structured Credit Business (credit protection in the form of credit swaps) |
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|
Compete with hedge funds, insurance companies including financial guarantors that, like ACA |
||||||
|
Financial Guaranty, insure the obligations of subsidiaries providing credit protection through |
||||||
|
swaps, banks, derivative products companies such as Athilon Capital Corp. and non-bank financial |
||||||
|
institutions. |
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|
Municipal Finance Business |
||||||
|
As the sole "A" rated financial guarantor, ACA’s target market in the municipal finance line of |
||||||
|
business is different than that of other financial guarantors. |
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|
. Does not compete directly with "AAA" rated financial guarantors. Radian Group Inc., as the only |
||||||
|
AA rated financial guarantor, is able to participate in ACA’s target market, although to a lesser |
||||||
|
degree than ACA. |
||||||
|
. Strongest competition in the target market is from letter of credit banks and high-yield municipal |
||||||
|
mutual funds that purchase uninsured non-investment grade municipal obligations. |
||||||
|
. Also competes with structural alternatives to third-party credit enhancement, including senior |
||||||
|
subordinated structures |
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|
CDO Asset Management Business. |
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|
. The financial services industry, and in particular, the market for CDO Asset Management |
||||||
|
services, is highly competitive with low barriers to entry. |
||||||
|
. Competitors include The TCW Group, Inc., Vanderbilt Capital Advisors, LLC, Blackrock |
||||||
|
Financial Management, Inc., Clinton Group Inc. and GSC Partners, among many financial |
||||||
|
institutions |
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|
Use of $122mm in IPO proceeds from sale of 6.9mm shares |
||||||
|
(shareholders intend to sell 3.9mm shares) |
||||||
|
General corporate purposes |
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|
========================================================== |
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|
ActivBiotics |
ACTV, C, 5 |
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|
biotech-inflammatory/bacterial |
Post-IPO shrs:14.9mm |
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|
Lexington, MA |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
June 05* |
June 06* |
IPO Mkt |
|
Profit (loss) ($mm) |
-$17.0 |
-$15.2 |
-$23.4 |
-$9.1 |
-$9.6 |
Cap (mm) |
|
*for the six months ended June 30 |
$194 |
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|
@$13 |
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|
VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
|
Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
|
|
ActivBiotics (ACTV) |
$194 |
n/a |
-10 |
3.2 |
3.1 |
27% |
|
SCORECARD |
Mgt |
Market |
Market Do- |
Proprie- |
Total |
|
|
1-5, 5 is high |
Growth |
mination |
tary |
rating |
||
|
20 is perfect |
2 |
2 |
1 |
5 |
||
|
Business |
||||||
|
. Biopharmaceutical focused on treatment of inflammatory diseases and bacterial infections. |
||||||
|
Product candidates |
||||||
|
Rifalazil |
||||||
|
. Lead product candidate, Rifalazil, is a proprietary, orally administered antibacterial agent, which |
||||||
|
is in a Phase III clinical trial for the treatment of intermittent claudication associated with |
||||||
|
peripheral arterial disease, or PAD. |
||||||
|
. PAD is a result of atherosclerosis of the arteries of the lower extremities. Intermittent |
||||||
|
claudication is pain, cramping or fatigue in the lower extremities brought on by exertion or |
||||||
|
walking and is the most common symptom of PAD. |
||||||
|
M40403 |
||||||
|
. Second product candidate, M40403, is a proprietary small molecule that is designed to mimic the |
||||||
|
function of a naturally occurring enzyme, which plays a role in several inflammatory disease |
||||||
|
states. |
||||||
|
. ACTV plans to initiate a Phase II clinical trial of M40403 for the management of post-operative |
||||||
|
ileus, or POI, which is the temporary impairment of bowel function following surgery. |
||||||
|
Accounting problems |
||||||
|
. ACTV's accounting fim reported material weaknesses due to inadequate finance department |
||||||
|
resources, and specifically a lack of sufficiently trained financial staff, which led to an overall |
||||||
|
inadequate design in and operating effectiveness of ACTV's internal controls over financial |
||||||
|
reporting, as these controls did not provide reasonable assurance that transactions were recorded as |
||||||
|
necessary to permit preparation of our financial statements in accordance with generally accepted |
||||||
|
accounting principles. |
||||||
|
. Recently, ACTV reorganized the finance department and retained an independent senior financial |
||||||
|
consultant, who works with ACTV 16 hours a week, or more if we request, for the next three |
||||||
|
months or longer by mutual agreement. |
||||||
|
. ACTV estimates the aggregate cost of employing these individuals to be $500,000 annually. |
||||||
|
Employees |
||||||
|
21 employees as of September 30, 2006. |
||||||
|
Competition |
||||||
|
ACTV expects that competitive products for its product candidates, if successfully developed, |
||||||
|
may include the following: |
||||||
|
o Rifalazil for Intermittent Claudication Associated with PAD. Cilostazol and pentoxifylline are |
||||||
|
approved for use in treating intermittent claudication but have the limitations |
||||||
|
. ACTV believes that Kos Pharmaceuticals and Takeda Pharmaceuticals, which currently co |
||||||
|
market Advicor for the treatment of high cholesterol, may be seeking to expand the label for this |
||||||
|
therapy to include intermittent claudication. |
||||||
|
. In addition, ACTV is are aware of several therapeutics for PAD that are in various stages of |
||||||
|
clinical development using a variety of therapeutic approaches. |
||||||
|
. The companies currently sponsoring the development of these agents include Genzyme, Otsuka, |
||||||
|
Taisho, Atherogenics, Flow Medic, Corautus and deCode Genetics. |
||||||
|
. ACTV believes that no product on the market or product candidate in development other than |
||||||
|
Rifalazil seeks to target intermittent claudication associated with PAD using an anti-Chlamydial |
||||||
|
agent. |
||||||
|
o Rifalazil for Carotid Artery Atherosclerosis. |
||||||
|
. There are no currently approved drug treatments for the reduction of the progression of carotid |
||||||
|
artery atherosclerosis. |
||||||
|
. However, ACTV is aware of several companies that are sponsoring clinical trials for possible |
||||||
|
label expansions of existing products to address this indication. The companies currently |
||||||
|
sponsoring such studies include Kos Pharmaceuticals, AstraZeneca, Takeda Pharmaceuticals and |
||||||
|
Pfizer. |
||||||
|
. ACTV believes that no product on the market or product candidate in development other than |
||||||
|
Rifalazil is designed to be a once-weekly short course therapy to reduce progression of carotid |
||||||
|
artery atherosclerosis related to Chlamydia infection. |
||||||
|
o M40403 for POI. |
||||||
|
. There are no approved therapies directly targeted for the management of POI. ACTV is aware of |
||||||
|
two other companies, Aeolus Pharmaceuticals Corporation and Eukarion, Inc., whose business |
||||||
|
plan is based on SOD mimetic technology. |
||||||
|
. To ACTV's knowledge, neither company is focused on POI. Tranzyme Pharma is developing |
||||||
|
TZP-101, currently in a Phase I clinical trial, for the management of gastrointestinal motility |
||||||
|
disorders, such as POI. Adolor Corporation, in partnership with GlaxoSmithKline, has submitted a |
||||||
|
NDA that is under current review by the FDA for Entereg, a selective opioid antagonist, for the |
||||||
|
management of POI due to opioid-induced effects on bowel function. |
||||||
|
. In addition, Wyeth Corporation and Progenics Corporation are co-developing methylnaltrexone, |
||||||
|
a peripheral opioid antagonist, for the management of POI. Wyeth Corporation and Progenics |
||||||
|
Corporation recently completed enrollment in their second pivotal Phase III trial for this product |
||||||
|
candidate. |
||||||
|
Use of $53mm in IPO proceeds |
||||||
|
o to fund clinical trials of Rifalazil; |
||||||
|
o to fund clinical trials of M40403; and |
||||||
|
o for other research and development activities and for general corporate purposes. |
||||||
|
========================================================= |
||||||
|
Canadian Solar Inc. |
CSIQ, C+, 7 |
|||||
|
solar module products |
Post-IPO shrs:27.3mm |
|||||
|
Jiangsu, China |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
June 05* |
June 06* |
IPO Mkt |
|
Rev ($mm) |
$4 |
$10 |
$18 |
$7 |
$26 |
Cap (mm) |
|
Gross Profit % |
41% |
33% |
39% |
44% |
28% |
$382 |
|
Operating Income % |
16% |
19% |
28% |
31% |
20% |
@$14 |
|
Profit (loss) ($mm) |
$0.8 |
$1.5 |
$3.8 |
$1.9 |
-$4.6 |
|
|
Profit (loss) % |
18.5% |
15.5% |
20.8% |
27.1% |
-17.7% |
|
|
Note: June 30, 2006 six months includes $8.2mm loss on financial instruments |
$4.4 |
$7.6 |
$9.2 |
$4.4 |
||
|
*for the six months ended June 30 |
||||||
|
VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
|
Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
|
|
Canadian Solar (CSIQ) |
$382 |
9.7 |
53 |
3.8 |
3.8 |
28% |
|
SCORECARD |
Mgt |
Market |
Market Do- |
Proprie- |
Total |
|
|
1-5, 5 is high |
Growth |
mination |
tary |
rating |
||
|
20 is perfect |
2 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
7 |
|
|
Note: based on a shortage of silicon for solar modules, the gross profit margin is not in contrl |
||||||
|
Business |
||||||
|
. Solar module products that convert sunlight into electricity for a variety of uses. Solar modules |
||||||
|
are an array of interconnected solar cells encased in a weatherproof frame |
||||||
|
. Sell products to customers located in various markets worldwide, including Germany, Spain, |
||||||
|
Canada, China and Japan. |
||||||
|
. Incorporated in Canada and conducts all manufacturing operations in China. |
||||||
|
Risk for growth |
||||||
|
. Current industry wide shortage of high-purity silicon that may constrain CSIQ's revenue growth |
||||||
|
and decrease gross margins and profitability" |
||||||
|
. CSIQ believes its current silicon raw material supply agreements and toll manufacturing |
||||||
|
arrangements will enable CSIQ to secure solar cells sufficient for a major portion of estimated |
||||||
|
2006 and a portion of estimated 2007 production output. |
||||||
|
Government Subsidies |
||||||
|
. CSIQ believes that the near-term growth of the market for on-grid applications depends in large |
||||||
|
part on the availability and size of government subsidies and economic incentives. |
||||||
|
. Today, the cost of implementing and operating a solar power system substantially exceeds the |
||||||
|
cost of purchasing power provided by the electric utility grid in many locations. |
||||||
|
Products |
||||||
|
Products are sold primarily under CSIQ's own brand name and also produced on an OEM basis |
||||||
|
for customers. |
||||||
|
Standard solar modules |
||||||
|
. Range of standard solar modules built to general specifications for use in a wide range of |
||||||
|
residential, commercial and industrial solar power generation systems. |
||||||
|
. Currently sells standard solar modules to distributors and system integrators. |
||||||
|
Specialty solar modules |
||||||
|
. Also designs and produces specialty solar modules and products based on customers' |
||||||
|
requirements. |
||||||
|
. Specialty solar modules and products consist of customized modules that CSIQ's customers |
||||||
|
incorporate into their own products, such as solar-powered bus stop lighting, and complete |
||||||
|
specialty products, such as solar-powered car battery chargers. |
||||||
|
Services |
||||||
|
Also implements solar power development projects, primarily in conjunction with government |
||||||
|
organizations to provide solar power generation in rural areas of China. |
||||||
|
Competitors |
||||||
|
. International competitors include BP Solar International Inc., or BP Solar, Sharp Solar |
||||||
|
Corporation, or Sharp Solar, SolarWorld AG, or SolarWorld |
||||||
|
. Competitors located in China such as Suntech Power Holdings Co., Ltd. or Suntech Power. |
||||||
|
Technology trends |
||||||
|
. CSIQ believes many of its competitors are developing and are currently producing products |
||||||
|
based on new solar power technologies that may ultimately have costs similar to, or lower than, |
||||||
|
CSIQ's projected costs. |
||||||
|
. For example, while crystalline technology currently accounts for 94% of the solar power market, |
||||||
|
some of competitors are developing or currently producing products based on alternative solar |
||||||
|
technologies, such as thin film photovoltaic materials, which they believe will ultimately cost the |
||||||
|
same as or less than crystalline silicon technologies, which CSIQ uses. |
||||||
|
. Solar modules produced using thin film materials, such as amorphous silicon and cadmium |
||||||
|
telluride, require significantly less silicon to produce than crystalline silicon solar modules, such |
||||||
|
as CSIQ's products, and are less susceptible to increases in silicon costs. |
||||||
|
. CSIQ may also face competition from semiconductor manufacturers, several of which have |
||||||
|
already announced plans to start production of solar modules. In addition, the entry barriers are |
||||||
|
relatively low in the solar module manufacturing business given the low capital requirements and |
||||||
|
relatively less technological complexity involved. |
||||||
|
. Due to the scarcity of high-purity silicon, supply chain management and access to financing are |
||||||
|
key entry barriers at present. However, if high-purity silicon capacity increases, these barriers may |
||||||
|
no longer exist and many new competitors may enter into the industry resulting in rapid industry |
||||||
|
fragmentation and loss of CSIQ's market share. |
||||||
|
Use of $77.4mm in IPO proceeds from sale of 6.3mm shares |
||||||
|
(shareholders intend to sell 1.4mm shares) |
||||||
|
o $30.0 million to purchase or prepay for solar cells and silicon raw materials; |
||||||
|
o $35.0 million for expansion into solar cell manufacturing, including purchasing |
||||||
|
o Remaining amount for general corporate purposes |
||||||
|
======================================================== |
||||||
|
Capella Education |
CPLA, C+, 7 |
|||||
|
online post-secondary education |
Post-IPO shrs:15.4mm |
|||||
|
Minneapolis, Minnesota |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
Sept 05* |
Sept 06* |
IPO Mkt |
|
Rev ($mm) |
$82 |
$118 |
$149 |
$107 |
$129 |
Cap (mm) |
|
Instructional costs&services |
53.7% |
50.0% |
47.7% |
48.6% |
47.7% |
$285 |
|
Operating income ($mm) |
$4.1 |
$9.9 |
$14.9 |
$10.6 |
$10.2 |
@$18.5 |
|
Operating income % |
5.0% |
8.4% |
10.0% |
9.9% |
7.9% |
|
|
Profit (loss) ($mm) |
$4.4 |
$18.9 |
$10.3 |
$7.3 |
$7.7 |
|
|
Profit (loss) % |
5.4% |
16.0% |
6.9% |
6.8% |
6.0% |
|
|
Enrollment |
9,313 |
12,252 |
14,613 |
13,308 |
16,374 |
|
|
Note: 2004 includes a tax benefit of $8.2mm |
*for the nine months ended Sept 30 |
|||||
|
For the nine months ended Sept 30 notice operating income is down both on an absolute and % basis |
||||||
|
VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
|
Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
|
|
Capella Education CPLA |
$285 |
1.7 |
28 |
3.7 |
3.7 |
26% |
|
SCORECARD |
Mgt |
Market |
Market Do- |
Proprie- |
Total |
|
|
1-5, 5 is high |
Growth |
mination |
tary |
rating |
||
|
20 is perfect |
2 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
7 |
|
|
Compare & contrast |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price |
|
Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
Nov 7 |
|
|
Apollo Group Inc. (APOL)* |
$6,100 |
2.8 |
19 |
13.8 |
15.1 |
$35.25 |
|
Career Education (CECO) |
$2,070 |
1.1 |
60 |
2.2 |
3.7 |
$21.86 |
|
Capella Education CPLA |
$285 |
1.7 |
28 |
3.7 |
3.7 |
26% |
|
* (University of Phoenix) quarter ended February 28, 2006 because |
||||||
|
November 4, 2006: Apollo has announced that a restatement of its historical financial statements will be |
||||||
|
certain "to record additional charges for compensation expenses" relating to its stock options granting |
||||||
|
practices. This is a material development from the Company's October 18, 2006 announcement that a |
||||||
|
restatement could be "possible." In addition, the Company also announced on Friday that its Chief |
||||||
|
Financial Officer and Treasurer Kenda B. Gonzales ("Ms. Gonzales") has resigned and Chief Accounting |
||||||
|
Officer Dan Bachus ("Mr. Bachus") has been placed on "administrative leave." |
||||||
|
Business |
||||||
|
. An exclusively online post-secondary education services company. |
||||||
|
. Through the wholly owned subsidiary, Capella University, offers a variety of doctoral, master's |
||||||
|
and bachelor's programs in the following disciplines: business, organization and management; |
||||||
|
education; psychology; human services; and information technology. |
||||||
|
. At September 30, 2006, offered 766 online courses and 13 academic programs with 76 |
||||||
|
specializations to 16,400 learners. |
||||||
|
Competition |
||||||
|
. Competes primarily with public and private degree-granting regionally accredited colleges and |
||||||
|
universities. |
||||||
|
. As well as a number of for-profit institutions offering online programs such as Walden |
||||||
|
University and the University of Phoenix. |
||||||
|
Use of $61.5mm in IPO proceeds from sale of 3.6mm shares |
||||||
|
(shareholders intend to sell 368,000 shares) |
||||||
|
. CPLA declared a special distribution payable post-IPO to shareholders of record as of October 3, 2006 |
||||||
|
. Aggregate amount of the special distribution will be equal to the gross proceeds received by CPLA from the IPO |
||||||
|
. CPLA says it is a return of capital to existing shareholders without requiring shareholders to sell their shares |
||||||
|
========================================================= |
||||||
|
KBW Inc. |
KBW, B-, 7 |
|||||
|
invesment bank -- financial services |
Post-IPO shrs:30.4mm |
|||||
|
New York, NY |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
June 05* |
June 06* |
IPO Mkt |
|
Rev ($mm) |
$272 |
$300 |
$308 |
$139 |
$193 |
Cap (mm) |
|
Employee comp & benefit |
$147.0 |
$170.0 |
$187.0 |
$85.0 |
$113.0 |
$608 |
|
Employee comp % |
54% |
57% |
61% |
61% |
59% |
@$20 |
|
Profit (loss) ($mm) |
$38.0 |
$31.0 |
$17.4 |
$6.1 |
$18.6 |
|
|
Profit (loss) % |
14% |
10% |
6% |
4% |
10% |
|
|
Note: |
*for the six months ended June 30 |
|||||
|
March 31 quarter earnings were $10.1mm, larger than June 30 quarter earnings of $8.4mm |
||||||
|
Note on Expenses |
||||||
|
. In mid 2004, expanded research and equity sales and trading to include European financial |
||||||
|
services industry equities. |
||||||
|
. This expansion resulted in substantial growth in the London office personnel which increased |
||||||
|
employee compensation and related communication and data processing expense and occupancy |
||||||
|
expense. |
||||||
|
. In addition, the majority of the personnel who joined in 2004 in connection with this expansion |
||||||
|
had employment contracts that included guaranteed year-end bonuses for 2004 and 2005, which |
||||||
|
guarantees did not carry over to 2006. |
||||||
|
VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
|
Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
|
|
KBW Inc. (KBW) |
$608 |
1.6 |
16 |
1.7 |
1.8 |
21% |
|
Compare & contrast |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
|
Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
|
|
KBW Inc. (KBW) |
$608 |
1.6 |
16 |
1.7 |
1.8 |
21% |
|
Cowen Group (COWN) |
$219 |
0.6 |
9.1 |
1.1 |
1.4 |
$14.60 |
|
Piper Jaffray (PJC) |
$1,360 |
1.3 |
12.1 |
1.7 |
2.3 |
$65.38 |
|
TWeisel (TWPG) |
$446 |
1.6 |
24.8 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
$17.25 |
|
Note: TWPG income for the June, 2006 six months eliminates the tax benefit & applies a 40% combined tax rate |
||||||
|
COWN income for the June, 2006 six months eliminates gain on exchange membership, and applies 40% tax rate |
||||||
|
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
||||||
|
Segment % comparison |
Investment |
Commiss |
Other |
|||
|
six months ended June 30, 2006 |
Banking% |
% |
% |
|||
|
KBW Inc. (KBW) |
49% |
32% |
19% |
|||
|
Cowen Group (COWN) |
50% |
12% |
38% |
|||
|
TWeisel (TWPG) |
46% |
45% |
9% |
|||
|
Piper Jaffray (PJC) |
51% |
34% |
15% |
|||
|
SCORECARD |
Mgt |
Market |
Market Do- |
Proprie- |
Total |
|
|
1-5, 5 is high |
Growth |
mination |
tary |
rating |
||
|
20 is perfect |
2 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
7 |
|
|
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
||||||
|
Business |
||||||
|
. Full service investment bank specializing in the financial services industry, founded in 1062 |
||||||
|
. Principal activities are: |
||||||
|
• Investment banking (50% of revenue for the quarter ended June 30, 2006) |
||||||
|
Provides a full range of investment banking services, including mergers and acquisitions ("M&A") |
||||||
|
and other strategic advisory services, equity and fixed income securities offerings, structured |
||||||
|
• Equity and fixed income sales and trading (35% of revenue for the quarter ended June 30, 2006) |
||||||
|
Trades a broad array of financial services stocks, with an emphasis on the small and mid cap |
||||||
|
segment, and a wide range of fixed income securities. Sales force is trained in the analysis of |
||||||
|
financial services companies and has strong relationships with many of the world's largest |
||||||
|
institutional investors. |
||||||
|
• Equity and fixed income research |
||||||
|
. Provides fundamental, objective analysis that identifies investment opportunities and helps |
||||||
|
investor customers make better investment decisions. |
||||||
|
. As of June 30, 2006, KBR’s research department covered an aggregate of 489 financial services |
||||||
|
companies, including 352 companies in the United States and 137 in Europe. |
||||||
|
. KBR believes it covers more financial services companies in the United States and in Europe |
||||||
|
than any other firm. |
||||||
|
Service expansion |
||||||
|
. Within its full service business model, KBR has expanded from a focus on the bank and thrift |
||||||
|
sector |
||||||
|
. To include insurance companies, broker-dealers, mortgage banks, asset management companies, |
||||||
|
mortgage real estate investment trusts ("REITs"), consumer and specialty finance firms, financial |
||||||
|
processing companies and securities exchanges. |
||||||
|
Client (company) Focus |
||||||
|
. Emphasizes serving clients in the small and mid cap segments of the financial services industry, |
||||||
|
market segments KBR believes have traditionally been underserved by larger investment banks |
||||||
|
. Dedicated to building long-term relationships and growing with our clients, providing them with |
||||||
|
capital raising opportunities and strategic advice at every stage of their development |
||||||
|
Industry recognition |
||||||
|
Investment banking: |
||||||
|
• Number one ranking as U.S. M&A advisor to financial services companies in each of the years |
||||||
|
‘2005, 2004 and 2003, ranked by number of deals. |
||||||
|
• Prominent presence in recent large cap financial services M&A including the following advisory |
||||||
|
engagements: the pending sale of North Fork Bancorporation to Capital One Financial Corporation; |
||||||
|
the acquisition by Bank of America Corporation of MBNA Corporation; the sale of |
||||||
|
Household International to HSBC; and the pending sale of Texas Regional Bancshares to BBVA. |
||||||
|
• Number one ranking as manager of U.S. IPOs and follow-on equity offerings for financial |
||||||
|
services companies in each of the years 2005 and 2004, ranked by number of deals. |
||||||
|
Sales and trading: |
||||||
|
• Number one All-America financial services equity sales team in each of the years 2005, 2004 |
||||||
|
and 2003, as ranked by Institutional Investor. |
||||||
|
• Number one ranking by trading volume as trader of U.S. bank stocks with less than $5 billion |
||||||
|
market capitalization for 2005 and for the first six months of 2006. |
||||||
|
• Among the leading traders by trading volume of the Nasdaq 100 Financial Index and one of the |
||||||
|
top three market makers for 52% of its constituent stocks, as measured during the twelve months |
||||||
|
ending June 30, 2006. |
||||||
|
Research: |
||||||
|
• Number one in five of the seven categories of KBR’s research coverage, and second place in the |
||||||
|
other two categories, in the December 2005 "Best of the Boutiques" survey by Institutional |
||||||
|
Investor. |
||||||
|
• Five of KBR analysts named in the Wall Street Journal's "Best on the Street 2006 Analysts |
||||||
|
Survey" in May 2006. |
||||||
|
Employee owned |
||||||
|
. Since KBR’s founding has been entirely employee owned. |
||||||
|
. As of June 30, 2006, over 300 of our 430 employees were stockholders, and there is currently no |
||||||
|
single holder with more than 4.2% of outstanding shares. |
||||||
|
. KBR has a high degree of employee loyalty, low turnover, and a collective commitment to join |
||||||
|
our resources and ideas to create integrated solutions to meet client and customer needs. |
||||||
|
Competition |
||||||
|
Investment banking |
||||||
|
. Many competitors have substantially greater capital and resources than KBW does and offer a |
||||||
|
broader range of financial products and services. |
||||||
|
. The scale of competitors has increased in recent years as a result of substantial consolidation |
||||||
|
among companies in the securities and investment banking industries. |
||||||
|
. In addition, a number of large commercial banks, insurance companies and other broad-based |
||||||
|
financial services firms have established or acquired underwriting or financial advisory businesses |
||||||
|
and broker-dealers or have merged with other financial institutions. |
||||||
|
. In particular, the ability to provide financing has become an important advantage for some of |
||||||
|
larger competitors and, because KBR does not provide such financing, it may be unable to |
||||||
|
compete as effectively for clients in a significant part of the investment banking market. |
||||||
|
Trading commissions |
||||||
|
. KBR has experienced intense price competition in some of its businesses, in particular discounts |
||||||
|
in trading commissions. |
||||||
|
. A particular source of this pricing pressure has been Internet-based and other alternative trading |
||||||
|
platforms, the expansion of which has led to a reduction of trading commissions. KBR believes |
||||||
|
that this trend toward alternative trading systems will continue. |
||||||
|
. In addition, the trend, particularly in the equity underwriting business, toward multiple book |
||||||
|
runners and co-managers has increased the competitive pressure in the investment banking |
||||||
|
industry, and may lead to lower average transaction fees. |
||||||
|
Asset management |
||||||
|
KBR faces competition in the pursuit of investors for investment funds, in the identification and |
||||||
|
completion of investments in attractive portfolio companies and in the recruitment and retention of |
||||||
|
asset management professionals. |
||||||
|
Use of $67.3mm in IPO proceeds from sale of 3.75mm shares |
||||||
|
(shareholders intend to sell 2.7mm shares) |
||||||
|
For general corporate purposes, including support of and expansion of existing businesses, and to |
||||||
|
fund strategic investments as they arise in the future |
||||||
|
=========================================================== |
||||||
|
Metabolix (MBLX) |
MBLX, C, 7 |
|||||
|
biotech,environmentally safe alternatives |
Post-IPO shrs:18.4mm |
|||||
|
Cambridge, MA |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
June 05* |
June 06* |
IPO Mkt |
|
Rev ($mm) |
$2 |
$4 |
$3 |
$2 |
$4 |
Cap (mm) |
|
Profit (loss) ($mm) |
-$6.6 |
-$5.1 |
-$7.6 |
-$3.4 |
-$4.3 |
$239 |
|
Profit (loss) % |
-275% |
-138% |
-271% |
-227% |
-113% |
@$13 |
|
*for the six months ended June 30 |
||||||
|
VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
|
Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
|
|
Metabolix (MBLX) |
$239 |
31.5 |
-28 |
2.7 |
2.8 |
32% |
|
SCORECARD |
Mgt |
Market |
Market Do- |
Proprie- |
Total |
|
|
1-5, 5 is high |
Growth |
mination |
tary |
rating |
||
|
20 is perfect |
2 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
7 |
|
|
Business |
||||||
|
. Biotechnology company that develops and plans to commercialize environmentally sustainable, |
||||||
|
economically attractive alternatives to petrochemical-based plastics, fuels and chemicals. |
||||||
|
. Strategy is to develop technology platforms that integrate advanced biotechnology with current |
||||||
|
industrial practice and to commercialize these platforms with industry leading strategic partners. |
||||||
|
. From founding in 1992, has been engaged solely in research and development activities and has |
||||||
|
not had significant sales of PHA Natural Plastics. |
||||||
|
. Currently producing and selling pre-commercial quantities of PHA Natural Plastics at a pilot |
||||||
|
plant for market development. |
||||||
|
Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) Agreement to Purchase Shares |
||||||
|
ADM has agreed to purchase $7.5 million of MBLX shares of common stock in a private |
||||||
|
placement concurrent with the IPO |
||||||
|
First platform: |
||||||
|
Strategic alliance with Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) |
||||||
|
. MBLX’s first platform, which MBLX will be commercializing through a strategic alliance with |
||||||
|
Archer Daniels Midland Company, or ADM, is a proprietary, large-scale fermentation system for |
||||||
|
producing a versatile family of naturally occurring polymers known as polyhydroxyalkanoates, |
||||||
|
which MBLX calls PHA Natural Plastics. |
||||||
|
. Through the alliance with ADM, MBLX intends to sell these polymers as environmentally |
||||||
|
friendly, but functionally equivalent alternatives to petrochemical-based plastics in a wide range of |
||||||
|
commercial applications, including disposable goods, packaging, agricultural products, consumer |
||||||
|
goods and electronics. |
||||||
|
. Also, as part of the strategic alliance with ADM, MBLX has announced plans to build a 50,000 |
||||||
|
ton annual capacity commercial scale plant, or Commercial Manufacturing Facility, that will |
||||||
|
produce biodegradable PHA Natural Plastics out of corn sugar, an abundant agriculturally |
||||||
|
produced renewable resource. |
||||||
|
. MBLX is currently producing pre-commercial quantities of PHA Natural Plastics jointly with |
||||||
|
ADM at a pilot plant having a capacity of 8 tons per month. |
||||||
|
ADM is repaid first |
||||||
|
. The cost of planning, designing, constructing and operating the Commercial Manufacturing |
||||||
|
Facility being developed to serve the alliance with ADM Polymer Corp., a wholly-owned |
||||||
|
subsidiary of ADM, and the cost of ancillary facilities and services related to the production of |
||||||
|
PHA Natural Plastics by the Joint Sales Company, will be very significant. |
||||||
|
. Although the final costs of construction have not been determined, MBLX estimates that its |
||||||
|
portion of these expenses will be between $25 and $35 million. |
||||||
|
. ADM will be advancing a disproportionate share of the financial capital needed for such |
||||||
|
activities and as such, all profits, after payment of all royalties, reimbursements and fees, from the |
||||||
|
Joint Sales Company will first be distributed to ADM until ADM's disproportionate investment in |
||||||
|
the Joint Sales Company has been returned. |
||||||
|
Second platform: |
||||||
|
. An early stage, is a system using switchgrass to co-produce both PHA Natural Plastics and |
||||||
|
biomass feedstock for the production of ethanol. |
||||||
|
. MBLX believes that using switchgrass to co-produce these products can offer superior economic |
||||||
|
value and productivity as compared to single product systems that produce them individually. |
||||||
|
. MBLX has already achieved significant milestones in this program and can produce small |
||||||
|
amounts of PHA Natural Plastics in switchgrass. |
||||||
|
. MBLX goals for this program are to have commercially viable switchgrass varieties in pilot field |
||||||
|
trials within four years and to establish strategic alliances with attractive partners to commercially |
||||||
|
exploit this platform. |
||||||
|
. Since MBLX’s switchgrass program is still in the research and development stage, MBLX has |
||||||
|
not yet determined a commercialization strategy for this program, which would include a business |
||||||
|
plan for procuring commercial quantities of switchgrass. |
||||||
|
ADM & BP, mostly deferred revenue |
||||||
|
. Entered into the alliance with ADM in November 2004 and a joint development arrangement |
||||||
|
with BP in February 2005. |
||||||
|
. As of June 30, 2006, all payments received from ADM had been recorded as deferred revenue on |
||||||
|
the balance sheet. |
||||||
|
. MBLX expects that future payments from ADM, through at least the construction phase of the |
||||||
|
Commercial Alliance Agreement, including quarterly operating payments, and other payments |
||||||
|
will be classified as deferred revenue as well. |
||||||
|
. MBLX anticipates recognizing revenue for the payments received from ADM after the |
||||||
|
obligations under the multiple element arrangements are delivered. |
||||||
|
. The deferred revenue associated with the BP arrangement was recognized in full during the first |
||||||
|
quarter of 2006 when the alliance was terminated. |
||||||
|
Payments received from ADM & BP |
||||||
|
MBLX received the following payments from these arrangements to offset operating cash needs |
||||||
|
during 2004 and 2005 and first six months of 2006: |
||||||
|
• upfront payment of $3.0 million from ADM in November 2004; |
||||||
|
• milestone payment of $2.0 million from ADM in May 2006; |
||||||
|
• cost sharing payments from ADM for pilot manufacturing plant construction and operations of |
||||||
|
$620,000 during 2005 and an additional $587,000 during the first six months ended June 30, 2006; and |
||||||
|
• upfront payment of $1.0 million and three subsequent quarterly payments of $500,000 each, |
||||||
|
totaling $2.5 million in payments from BP during 2005 and 2006. |
||||||
|
United States Government Contracts and Grants |
||||||
|
As of June 30, 2006, gross proceeds of $3.13 million remained to be received under MBLX’s |
||||||
|
various government contracts and grants, which include amounts for reimbursement to |
||||||
|
subcontractors, as well as reimbursement for MBLX’s employees' time and benefits and other |
||||||
|
expenses related to performance under the various contracts. |
||||||
|
MIT intellectual property relationship |
||||||
|
. A substantial portion of MBLX’s core technology is protected by patents that are owned by |
||||||
|
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, or MIT, and exclusively licensed to MBLX for the life of |
||||||
|
the patents. |
||||||
|
. The MIT license covers 11 issued U.S. patents, one U.S. application and numerous foreign |
||||||
|
counterparts. |
||||||
|
Use of $75.3mm in IPO proceeds |
||||||
|
• $10 to $15 million will be used to acquire plant and equipment for pilot manufacturing |
||||||
|
operations and for formulation operations related to the Commercial Manufacturing Facility; |
||||||
|
• $15 to $20 million will be used to conduct pilot manufacturing, sales and marketing activities |
||||||
|
related to developing the market for PHA Natural Plastics prior to operations commencing at the |
||||||
|
Commercial Manufacturing Facility; |
||||||
|
• $35 million will be used for continued research and development related to: the ADM alliance, |
||||||
|
expansion of the switchgrass biomass biorefinery program and the initiation of new programs to |
||||||
|
extend the platform technology (for example to the production of certain key chemicals and |
||||||
|
chemical intermediates); and |
||||||
|
• the balance of the funds will be used for administrative expenses related to the expansion of |
||||||
|
commercial and research and development activities noted above and costs related to being a |
||||||
|
publicly traded company as well as for working capital and other general corporate purposes |
||||||
|
======================================================== |
||||||
|
OneBeacon Insurance |
OB, C+, 7 |
|||||
|
property/casualty insurer |
Post-IPO shrs:100mm |
|||||
|
Hanover, NH |
2005 |
Sept 9mos* |
IPO Mkt |
|||
|
Net writte premiums ($mm) |
proforma results ==> |
$1,989 |
$1,526 |
Cap (mm) |
||
|
Income from continuing operations |
$214 |
$210 |
$2,500 |
|||
|
Profit (loss) % |
10.8% |
13.8% |
@$25 |
|||
|
*for the nine months ended Sept 30 |
||||||
|
Combined ratio (loss and expense) |
||||||
|
. Declined from 131.8% in 2001 to 98.6% in 2005 and to 95.6% in the first nine months of 2006. |
||||||
|
. Less than 100% combined ratio suggests profitability in the insurance business |
||||||
|
VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
|
Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV* |
in IPO |
|
|
OneBeacon Insrnce (OB) |
$2,500 |
1.2 |
9 |
1.5 |
2.0 |
20% |
|
SCORECARD |
Mgt |
Market |
Market Do- |
Proprie- |
Total |
|
|
1-5, 5 is high |
Growth |
mination |
tary |
rating |
||
|
20 is perfect |
2 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
7 |
|
|
*Note on price-to-tangible book value |
||||||
|
subtracts deferred acquisition costs of $243mm, and other assets of $212mm from capitalization of $1683mm |
||||||
|
Parent on NYSE |
||||||
|
White Mountains Insurance Group Ltd. (NYSE:WTM), $6.12bb market cap |
||||||
|
Dividend Policy |
||||||
|
. Intends to pay quarterly cash dividends at an initial rate of $0.21 per common share, $.84 |
||||||
|
annualized |
||||||
|
. 3.36% annualized rate at the range mid-point of $25 |
||||||
|
Business |
||||||
|
. Property and casualty insurance writer that provides a range of specialty insurance products as |
||||||
|
well as a variety of segmented commercial and personal insurance products. |
||||||
|
. With roots dating back to 1831, OB has been operating for more than 175 years and has many |
||||||
|
long-standing relationships with independent agencies, which constitute the primary distribution |
||||||
|
channel. |
||||||
|
Financial overview |
||||||
|
. OB manages its Primary Insurance Operations, the predominant segment, through three separate |
||||||
|
but related underwriting units: specialty lines, commercial lines and personal lines. |
||||||
|
. In 2005, net written premiums totaled $2.1 billion |
||||||
|
. At December 31, 2005 OB had total assets of $10.3 billion and total common shareholder's |
||||||
|
equity of $1.6 billion |
||||||
|
Competition |
||||||
|
Property and casualty insurance is highly competitive. |
||||||
|
. In specialty lines, OB competes with numerous regional and national insurance companies, most |
||||||
|
notably The Chubb Corporation, American International Group, The St. Paul Travelers |
||||||
|
Companies, CNA Financial Corporation and the regional Farm Bureaus. |
||||||
|
. In commercial and personal lines, OB competes with numerous regional and national insurance |
||||||
|
companies, most notably The St. Paul Travelers Companies, Inc., Zurich Financial Services |
||||||
|
Group, CNA Financial Corporation, Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc., The Hanover |
||||||
|
Insurance Group, Inc., W.R. Berkley Corporation, The Chubb Corporation, The Progressive |
||||||
|
Corporation, Allstate Insurance Company and Liberty Mutual Insurance Company. |
||||||
|
Ratings |
||||||
|
. OB currently have an "A" rating with a stable outlook from A.M. Best ("Excellent", the third |
||||||
|
highest of 15 ratings), "A" rating with a stable outlook from Standard & Poor's ("Strong", the sixth |
||||||
|
highest of 21 ratings), "A2" rating with a stable outlook by Moody's ("Good", the sixth highest of |
||||||
|
21 ratings), and "A" rating with a stable outlook by Fitch ("Strong", the sixth highest of 24 |
||||||
|
ratings). |
||||||
|
. These financial strength ratings do not refer to OB's ability to meet non-insurance obligations |
||||||
|
and are not a recommendation to purchase or discontinue any policy or contract issued by OB or |
||||||
|
to buy, hold, or sell OB securities. |
||||||
|
Employees |
||||||
|
As of September 30, 2006, OB employed approximately 3,400 persons |
||||||
|
Selling shareholder |
||||||
|
. 100% of proceeds from sale of 20mm shares to White Mountains Holdings Bermuda Ltd., a |
||||||
|
direct wholly owned subsidiary of White Mountains |
||||||
|
. Acquired by White Mountains in 2001. White Mountains is a holding company whose principal |
||||||
|
businesses provide property and casualty insurance and reinsurance |
||||||
|
. Post IPO White Mountains will 80% of the equity interest in OB and will have 97.6% combined |
||||||
|
voting power |
||||||
|
======================================================= |
||||||
|
Physicians Formula |
PHYS, C+, 7 |
|||||
|
cosmetics-high end mass market |
Post-IPO shrs13.7mm |
|||||
|
Azusa, CA |
2004 |
2005 |
June 05* |
June 06* |
IPO Mkt |
|
|
Rev ($mm) |
$62 |
$79 |
$43 |
$51 |
Cap (mm) |
|
|
Gross Profit % |
61.3% |
59.5% |
60.5% |
57.6% |
$219 |
|
|
Profit (loss) ($mm) |
$4.2 |
$7.8 |
$5.1 |
$4.0 |
@$16 |
|
|
Profit (loss) % |
6.8% |
9.9% |
11.9% |
7.8% |
||
|
Adjusted EBITDA ($mm) |
$13.0 |
$18.0 |
$10.7 |
$11.4 |
||
|
Adjusted EBITDA % |
21% |
23% |
25% |
22% |
||
|
*for the six months ended June 30 |
||||||
|
VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
|
Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
|
|
PhysiciansFormulaPHYS |
$219 |
2.1 |
27 |
3.9 |
-12.8 |
46% |
|
SCORECARD |
Mgt |
Market |
Market Do- |
Proprie- |
Total |
|
|
1-5, 5 is high |
Growth |
mination |
tary |
rating |
||
|
20 is perfect |
2 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
7 |
|
|
Business |
||||||
|
. Specializes in developing and marketing innovative, premium-priced products for the mass |
||||||
|
market channel. |
||||||
|
. One of the fastest growing cosmetics companies,of the ten largest in the U.S. mass market |
||||||
|
channel by retail sales, with a rapidly growing and loyal consumer base. |
||||||
|
. PHYS believes its products provide above-average profitability for retailers due to higher price |
||||||
|
points and sales per linear foot |
||||||
|
Recent developments |
||||||
|
Revenue |
||||||
|
. PHYS expects to report between $17.0 million and $18.0 million in net sales for the three months |
||||||
|
ended September 30, 2006, compared to net sales of $14.0 million for the prior-year period. |
||||||
|
. The increase in net sales was attributable to increased total distribution. Total distribution |
||||||
|
represents the number of stores in which PHYS sells products multiplied by the number of stock |
||||||
|
keeping units per store. |
||||||
|
Gross profit & operating income |
||||||
|
. For the three months ended September 30, 2006, PHYS expects to report between $8.5 million |
||||||
|
and $9.5 million of gross profit, compared to gross profit of $8.5 million for the prior-year period, |
||||||
|
and gross margin of between 50% and 53%, compared to gross margin of 61% for the prior-year |
||||||
|
period. |
||||||
|
. This decrease in gross margin was caused by higher inbound freight costs and a higher write |
||||||
|
down of inventory relating to retailer customers' spring wall display changes and the associated |
||||||
|
impact on our slow-moving and obsolete inventory. |
||||||
|
. PHYS expects to report between $1.5 million and $2.5 million in income from operations for the |
||||||
|
three months ended September 30, 2006, compared to income from operations of $1.5 million for |
||||||
|
the prior-year period, primarily due to higher net sales, which was offset by the decrease in gross |
||||||
|
margin, for the three months ended September 30, 2006. |
||||||
|
Seasonality |
||||||
|
. PHYS's business, similar to others in the cosmetic industry, is subject to seasonal variation due |
||||||
|
to the annual "sell-in" period when retailers decide how much retail space will be allotted to each |
||||||
|
supplier and the number of new and existing products to be offered in their stores. |
||||||
|
. For PHYS this period has historically been from December through April. Sales during these |
||||||
|
months are typically greater due to the shipments required to fill the inventory at retail stores and |
||||||
|
retailers' warehouses. |
||||||
|
. Retailers typically reset their retail selling space during these months to accommodate changes in |
||||||
|
space allocation to each supplier and to incorporate the addition of new products and the deletion |
||||||
|
of slow-selling items. |
||||||
|
. PHYS's net sales for the three months ended December 31, 2005 were higher than our net sales |
||||||
|
for the three months ended September 30, 2005, as a result of this seasonality. |
||||||
|
Masstige (mass market prestige products) market as defined by PHYS |
||||||
|
. PHYS defines the masstige market as products sold in the mass market channel under the |
||||||
|
following premium-priced brands: Physicians Formula, Almay, L'Oréal, Max Factor, Neutrogena, |
||||||
|
Revlon and Vital Radiance. |
||||||
|
. According to AC Nielsen data, these brands, other than Vital Radiance and Max Factor, were the |
||||||
|
only mass-distributed brands whose products had average retail prices 30% or more above the |
||||||
|
average price for similar products in food, drug and mass volume retailers other than Wal-Mart for |
||||||
|
52 weeks ended September 9, 2006 and whose average retail sales in the mass market channel |
||||||
|
were over $2 million during the same period. |
||||||
|
Market, growth & market share |
||||||
|
. PHYS positions itself as a "mass market prestige," or "masstige," brand within the U.S. mass |
||||||
|
market channel of the cosmetics industry, which generated $4.8 billion in annual retail sales in |
||||||
|
2005 based on Euromonitor data. |
||||||
|
. Primary PHYS product categories are face and eye makeup, and is one of the fastest growing |
||||||
|
cosmetics brands in the mass market prestige, or "masstige," market, as PHYS defines it, with |
||||||
|
25% and 21% growth rates over the prior year periods, based on ACNielsen data for the 52 weeks |
||||||
|
and 12 weeks ended September 9, 2006, respectively. |
||||||
|
. Based on ACNielsen data, PHYS's share of the masstige market at food, drug and mass volume |
||||||
|
retailers other than Wal-Mart was 6.9% and 7.2% for the 52 weeks and 12 weeks ended September |
||||||
|
9, 2006, respectively. |
||||||
|
Products |
||||||
|
. Products focus on addressing skin imperfections through a problem-solution approach, rather |
||||||
|
than focusing on changing fashion trends. |
||||||
|
. Products address specific, everyday cosmetics needs and include face powders, bronzers, |
||||||
|
concealers, blushes, foundations, eye shadows, eye liners, brow makeup and mascaras. |
||||||
|
. New products are a very important part of PHYS's business and have contributed, on average, |
||||||
|
30% of net sales for the last three years. |
||||||
|
Brand rankings |
||||||
|
. In a 2005 study commissioned by PHYS, respondents who were aware of a brand were asked to |
||||||
|
rank their perception of that brand's quality. PHYS tied for the highest perceived brand quality |
||||||
|
among masstige cosmetic brands. |
||||||
|
. Based on ACNielsen data for the 12 weeks ended September 9, 2006, PHYS's three top-selling |
||||||
|
product categories had leading market positions in the masstige market |
||||||
|
Distribution Channels & customer concentration |
||||||
|
. Sells products in 23,200 stores in the U.S. to over 70 different retailers in the food retail, drug |
||||||
|
chain, mass volume, specialty retail and wholesale channels. Also sells products internationally |
||||||
|
. Top ten U.S. customers represented 86% of gross sales in 2005. |
||||||
|
. Sales to Wal-Mart, CVS, Walgreens and Target accounted for an aggregate of 66% of gross sales |
||||||
|
for the year ended December 31, 2005, with sales to each of these customers accounting for |
||||||
|
greater than 10% of gross sales for the year ended December 31, 2005. |
||||||
|
Employees |
||||||
|
. As of September 30, 2006, employed 149 full-time and 18 part-time employees. |
||||||
|
. In addition, subcontracted for 150 workers through a temporary staffing agency. |
||||||
|
. During the course of the year, typically utilizes between 150 and 250 subcontracted workers |
||||||
|
depending on seasonal fluctuations in demand for products. |
||||||
|
Competition |
||||||
|
Principal competitors in the masstige market, as PHYS defines it, include L'Oréal S.A. (L'Oréal), |
||||||
|
Revlon, Inc. (Revlon, Vital Radiance and Almay), The Procter & Gamble Company (Max Factor) |
||||||
|
and Johnson & Johnson (Neutrogena). |
||||||
|
Summit Partners, venture capitalist firm: 77% pre-IPO, 40% post-IPO |
||||||
|
Preferred stock |
||||||
|
. Acquired preferred stock for $30mm on November 3, 2003. |
||||||
|
. Preferred stock repurchased through PHYS incurred debt in December, 2005 |
||||||
|
Common stock |
||||||
|
. Acquired 8mm shares of stock for 800,000, or 10 cents per share on November 3, 2003 |
||||||
|
. Summit expects to sell 2.4mm shares in the IPO for $16 per share, or $38mm |
||||||
|
. Summit retains 5.6mm shares, worth $90mm, some of which (600,000) to be sold in the over- |
||||||
|
allotment |
||||||
|
160 times return on remaining investment after preferred stock sale |
||||||
|
. After selling preferred stock back to USTA, had 8mm shares purchased for $800,000 |
||||||
|
. Market value of their 8mm shares of stock is $128mm on the IPO |
||||||
|
. A return of 160 times the remaining investment after preferred stock buyback |
||||||
|
Use of $44mm in IPO proceeds from sale of 3.125mm shares |
||||||
|
(shareholders intend to also sell 3.125mm shares |
||||||
|
. $20.7 million to repurchase senior notes (PHYS used the net proceeds from the sale of the senior |
||||||
|
subordinated notes to repay a portion of then-existing indebtedness, to repurchase a portion of |
||||||
|
preferred stock and to pay a portion of the dividend to common stockholders in connection with |
||||||
|
the Recapitalization). |
||||||
|
. $23.3 million together with $22.3 million of borrowings under a new senior credit agreement, to |
||||||
|
repay the existing senior credit agreement as of the closing date of this offering. |
||||||
|
. The new senior credit agreement will include a $15.0 million term loan facility and a revolving |
||||||
|
credit facility providing for borrowings of up to $20.0 million. |
||||||
|
=========================================================== |
||||||
|
Thermage (THRM) |
THRM, C, 7 |
|||||
|
devices for wrinkles |
Post-IPO shrs:22.4mm |
|||||
|
Hayward, CA |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
June 05* |
June 06* |
IPO Mkt |
|
Rev ($mm) |
$25 |
$50 |
$41 |
$23 |
$27 |
Cap (mm) |
|
Gross Profit % |
49.4% |
75.4% |
69.5% |
72.4% |
71.6% |
$269 |
|
Profit (loss) ($mm) |
-$6.6 |
$5.0 |
-$8.2 |
-$0.1 |
-$3.8 |
@$12 |
|
Profit (loss) % |
-26.5% |
9.9% |
-20.1% |
-0.3% |
-14.0% |
|
|
*for the six months ended June 30 |
||||||
|
VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
|
Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
|
|
Thermage (THRM) |
$269 |
5.0 |
-35 |
3.6 |
3.6 |
27% |
|
SCORECARD |
Mgt |
Market |
Market Do- |
Proprie- |
Total |
|
|
1-5, 5 is high |
Growth |
mination |
tary |
rating |
||
|
20 is perfect |
2 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
7 |
|
|
2004 was a good year |
||||||
|
. Net revenue increased $25.5 million, or 102%, from $24.9 million in 2003 to $50.4 million in 2004 |
||||||
|
. Sales of ThermaTips and other consumables increased $23.0 million, or 322%, from $7.1 million |
||||||
|
in 2003 to $30.1 million in 2004. |
||||||
|
2005 was a bad year |
||||||
|
. Net revenue decreased $9.7 million, or 19%, from $50.4 million in 2004 to $40.7 million in 2005 |
||||||
|
. Sales of ThermaTips and other consumables decreased $3.1 million, or 10%, from $30.1 million |
||||||
|
in 2004 to $27.0 million in 2005. |
||||||
|
. Sales of ThermaCool RF generator decreased $7.1 million, or 36%, from $19.7 million in 2004 |
||||||
|
to $12.6 million in 2005. |
||||||
|
. Product unit volume of ThermaTips was 94,099 units and 83,662 units for 2004 and 2005, |
||||||
|
respectively. Product unit volume of ThermaCool RF generator was 612 units and 408 units for |
||||||
|
2004 and 2005, respectively. International sales to distributors accounted for 28% and 44% of |
||||||
|
revenue for 2004 and 2005, respectively. |
||||||
|
Revenue decrease due to… |
||||||
|
. "The decrease in revenue was primarily attributable to a decline in unit volume sales resulting |
||||||
|
from the reorganization of our U.S. sales force in 2005, which led to the replacement of over 50% |
||||||
|
of our sales personnel, as well as a reduction in pricing of ThermaCool RF generator and most |
||||||
|
ThermaTips of 10% to 15%, partially offset by expansion into new international markets." |
||||||
|
Business |
||||||
|
. Medical devices for the non-invasive treatment of wrinkles. |
||||||
|
. The Thermage procedure can be performed on any part of the body where treatment of wrinkles |
||||||
|
is desired, uses patented monopolar radiofrequency, or RF, energy to heat and shrink collagen and |
||||||
|
tighten the dermis and subcutaneous tissue while simultaneously cooling and protecting the |
||||||
|
surface of the skin. |
||||||
|
. The heating and shrinking of the collagen can cause a healing process to begin, which may |
||||||
|
further tighten the skin and reduce wrinkles over the next two to six months. |
||||||
|
The Thermage procedure |
||||||
|
. Is normally performed in a medical office setting as a single treatment that takes from 20 minutes |
||||||
|
to two hours, depending on the treatment area. |
||||||
|
. Provides patients seeking wrinkle reduction a non-invasive alternative to more expensive surgical |
||||||
|
procedures that can involve weeks of recovery |
||||||
|
FDA & Marketing |
||||||
|
. In December 2005, received FDA clearance to market the ThermaCool system for the treatment |
||||||
|
of wrinkles and rhytids, without limitation to particular areas of the body. |
||||||
|
. In 2002, received U.S. Food and Drug Administration, or FDA, clearance for the treatment of |
||||||
|
wrinkles around the eyes, or periorbital wrinkles and rhytids, and commercially launched the |
||||||
|
ThermaCool system. |
||||||
|
. Markets the ThermaCool system, including the single-use ThermaTips, in the United States to |
||||||
|
physicians through a direct sales force and internationally in 70 countries through a network of |
||||||
|
distributors. |
||||||
|
. As of June 30, 2006, had an installed base of over 1,800 ThermaCool RF generators and had sold |
||||||
|
over 275,000 ThermaTips, which THRM estimates represent an approximately equal number of |
||||||
|
Thermage procedures performed. |
||||||
|
The Market for Aesthetic Procedures to Treat the Skin |
||||||
|
. The American Society for Aesthetic Plastic Surgery reports that in 2005, total expenditures for |
||||||
|
aesthetic procedures were approximately $12.4 billion. From 2000 to 2005, the total number of |
||||||
|
aesthetic procedures increased from approximately 5.7 million to over 11.4 million procedures, |
||||||
|
representing a 15% compounded annual growth rate. |
||||||
|
. Non-invasive aesthetic procedures were primarily responsible for the overall increase, rising |
||||||
|
from approximately 4.3 million to approximately 9.3 million procedures over the same period, |
||||||
|
representing a 17% compounded annual growth rate. |
||||||
|
. Furthermore, patients are seeking treatment for wrinkles in larger numbers. For example, skin |
||||||
|
tightening, which represents the fastest growing segment of the aesthetic laser market, is projected |
||||||
|
to grow at a 31% compounded annual growth rate over the next five years, according to the |
||||||
|
Millennium Research Group. |
||||||
|
. Similar market trends also exist outside the United States, where demand for non-invasive |
||||||
|
aesthetic procedures has also experienced strong growth. |
||||||
|
Competition |
||||||
|
. Laser devices have advanced rapidly over the past decade, with a variety of technologies |
||||||
|
available for a wide range of applications. |
||||||
|
. Most recently, other types of devices have been developed that are competitive in the area of |
||||||
|
wrinkle reduction, such as those based upon filtered light, bipolar RF energy and ultrasound. |
||||||
|
. THRM competes directly against laser and other energy-delivery devices offered by public |
||||||
|
companies, including Candela, Cutera, Cynosure, Lumenis, Palomar Medical Technologies and |
||||||
|
Syneron, as well as by many private companies. |
||||||
|
. THRM’s ThermaCool system also competes with other wrinkle reduction solutions, including |
||||||
|
Botox and collagen injections, soft tissue fillers, chemical peels, microdermabrasion and |
||||||
|
liposuction, as well as cosmetic surgical procedures such as face lifts, blepharoplasty and |
||||||
|
abdominoplasty. |
||||||
|
. Additionally, less invasive surgical solutions, such as implanted sutures, have been developed |
||||||
|
that may offer a compelling alternative to facelifts. |
||||||
|
Not a strong competitive position |
||||||
|
. While THRM attempts to protect its ThermaCool system through patents and other intellectual |
||||||
|
property rights, there are few barriers to entry that would prevent new entrants or existing |
||||||
|
competitors from developing products that would compete directly with THRM’s. |
||||||
|
. In addition, THRM has encountered and expect to continue to encounter physicians who, due to |
||||||
|
relationships with competitors or the nature of their practice, will not purchase the ThermaCool |
||||||
|
system. |
||||||
|
Use of $65mm in IPO proceeds |
||||||
|
• $30.0 million for sales and marketing initiatives to support the ongoing commercialization of the |
||||||
|
ThermaCool system; |
||||||
|
• $13.0 million for research and development activities, including support of product development, |
||||||
|
regulatory and clinical study initiatives; and |
||||||
|
• $5.0 million for repayment of working capital line with GE Capital |
||||||
|
. Remainder of net proceeds for general corporate purposes |
||||||
|
================================================================= |
||||||