IPOdesktop.com Pre-IPO grading & scoring methodology
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Financial Performance & Scoring -- © 2006 Gaskins IPO Desktop/IPOdesktop |
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Pre-IPO analysis, grading & scoring -- updated Nov 18 |
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. Business Model Rating Criteria |
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A = high growth market, potential leader; B = more competitive market; C= 'public venture capital' |
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. Calculations |
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. IPO Price to annualized Sales Ratio -- (Price / Sales) |
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Numerator |
Denominator |
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IPO market capitalization… |
Annualized Sales (last six or nine months) |
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(post-IPO # of shares times mid-point of IPO price range) |
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. IPO Price to annualized Earnings (loss) -- (Price / Earnings) |
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Numerator |
Denominator |
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IPO market cap |
Annualized Earnings (loss) from the last quarter |
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========================================================================= |
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SEARCH BY COMPANY |
In your browser use 'Edit/Find' to search for companies |
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or ticker for analysis |
scheduled below |
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========================================================================= |
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Summary ratios for the week of Nov 20 (IPOs not previously analyzed, scored & graded) |
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(P/E ratios based on annualizing recent results, see notes) |
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VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
|
Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
|
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AerCap Holdings (AER) |
$1,955 |
2.4 |
14 |
2.9 |
3.2 |
31% |
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leases aircraft & engines: C+, 8 |
Post-IPO shrs: 85mm |
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Spirit Aerosys (SPR) |
$3,072 |
0.9 |
23 |
7.0 |
5.4 |
41% |
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parts for commercial & military aircraft: C+, 7 |
Post-IPO shrs:128mm |
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Willdan Group (WLDN) |
$67 |
0.9 |
9 |
2.4 |
2.7 |
42% |
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outsources services to government: C+, 6 |
Post-IPO shrs:6.7mm |
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========================================================================= |
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SEARCH BY COMPANY |
In your browser use 'Edit/Find' to search for companies |
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or ticker for analysis |
scheduled below |
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========================================================================= |
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AerCap Holdings |
AER, C+, 8 |
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leases aircraft & engines |
Post-IPO shrs: 85mm |
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The Netherlands |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
Sept 06* |
IPO Mkt |
|
|
Rev ($mm) |
$471 |
$391 |
$493 |
$603 |
Cap (mm) |
|
|
Cost of goods sold |
$7 |
$19 |
$68 |
$183 |
$1,955 |
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Cost of goods sold % |
1% |
5% |
14% |
30% |
@$23 |
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Inerest ($mm) |
$123 |
$113 |
$114 |
$111 |
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Interest % |
26% |
29% |
23% |
18% |
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Profit (loss) ($mm) |
$37.0 |
-$105.0 |
$83.0 |
$105.0 |
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Profit (loss) % |
8% |
-27% |
17% |
17% |
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EBITDA |
$332.0 |
$134.0 |
$325.0 |
$309.0 |
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EBITDA % |
70% |
34% |
66% |
51% |
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*for the nine months ended Sept 30 |
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
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Reported on page 1 of the SEC filing |
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Revenue ($mm) |
$628 |
$662 |
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Profit ($mm) |
$108 |
$105 |
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Profit % |
17.2% |
15.9% |
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VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
|
Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
|
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AerCap Holdings (AER) |
$1,955 |
2.2 |
14 |
2.9 |
3.2 |
31% |
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SCORECARD |
Mgt |
Market |
Market Do- |
Proprie- |
Total |
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1-5, 5 is high |
Growth |
mination |
tary |
rating |
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20 is perfect |
2 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
8 |
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
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Compare & contrast |
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based on annualizing results for the nine months ended September 30, 2006 |
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VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price |
|
Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
Nov 6, 06 |
|
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AerCap Holdings (AER) |
$1,955 |
2.4 |
14 |
2.9 |
3.2 |
31% |
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Aircastle LTD (AYR) |
$1,565 |
9.2 |
42 |
2.4 |
2.4 |
$30.39 |
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As of March 31, 2006, AER’s aircraft portfolio consisted of 42 aircraft that were leased |
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to 24 lessees located in 16 countries |
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AYR IPO date, price: August 8, 2006, $23 |
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Summary |
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. Relative to AYR, AER appears to be priced at a significant P/E discount, & a smaller price-to-book value premium |
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. Notice that in this business, see below, quarterly results can vary even when the secular trend is rising |
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Business |
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. Aircraft and engine leasing, trading and parts sales |
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. Also provides aircraft management services and perform aircraft and engine MRO services and |
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aircraft disassemblies through certified repair stations. |
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. Operates the business on a global basis, providing aircraft, engines and parts to customers in |
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every major geographical region. |
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. Has the infrastructure, expertise and resources to execute a large number of diverse aircraft and |
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engine transactions in a variety of market conditions |
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Industry Trends |
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. AER believes that trends in the aviation industry identified by SH&E, a recognized expert in the |
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aviation industry, and described in "Aircraft, Engine and Aviation Parts Industry" create a |
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favorable environment for AER to leverage its competitive strengths and grow its business. |
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. AER believes that its operating capabilities and aircraft and engine portfolios will provide AER |
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with a competitive advantage in the expanding aviation market. |
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Recent developments & growth |
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. October 17, 2006, signed a letter of intent with Airbus to purchase 20 new A330-200 widebody |
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aircraft. |
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. Expects to expand leasing activity in Asia and in China in particular through the AerDragon joint |
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venture with China Aviation Supplies Import & Export Group Corporation, which commenced |
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operations in October 2006. |
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Financial Results for the Three Months Ended December 31, 2006 |
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. Financial results for the three months ended December 31, 2006 will be affected by non-cash |
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compensation expense AER will recognize from the vesting of options and restricted stock |
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previously granted or sold to the owners of AeroTurbine at the time of its acquisition by AER and |
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to members of senior management and one consultant primarily in connection with the 2005 |
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Acquisition. |
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. As a result, assuming an initial public offering price of $23.00 per ordinary share, the mid-point |
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of the price range, AER expects to recognize $73 million of non-cash compensation expense |
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before tax in the fourth quarter of 2006 and expect to report a net loss for the period. |
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Quarterly sales revenue varies |
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Sales revenue is generated from the sale of aircraft, engines, and inventory. |
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. The timing of the closing of aircraft and engine sales is often uncertain, as a sale may be |
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concluded swiftly or negotiations may extend over several weeks or months. |
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. As a result, even if sales are comparable over a long period of time, during any particular fiscal |
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quarter or other reporting period AER may close significantly more or fewer sale transactions than |
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in other reporting periods. |
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. Accordingly, sales revenue recorded in one fiscal quarter or other reporting period may not be |
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comparable to sales revenue in other periods. |
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Aircraft & engines |
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. As of April 2006, had the fifth largest aircraft leasing portfolio in the world, and the third largest |
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new aircraft order book among operating lessors, according to SH&E, in each case by number of |
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aircraft. |
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. As of September 30, 2006, owned 109 aircraft and 61 engines, managed 110 aircraft, had 79 new |
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aircraft and six new engines on order, had entered into purchase contracts for 17 aircraft with |
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GATX and had executed letters of intent to purchase an additional nine aircraft. |
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. As of September 30, 2006, AER's owned and managed aircraft and engines were leased to 97 |
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commercial airline and cargo operator customers in 47 countries and were managed from our |
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offices in The Netherlands, Ireland and the United States. |
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Competition |
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. Competition is comprised of major aircraft leasing companies including GE Commercial |
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Aviation Services, International Lease Finance Corp., CIT Group, Aviation Capital Group, |
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Pegasus Aviation, GATX Air, |
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. Aircastle Limited, RBS Aviation Capital, AWAS, Babcock & Brown, Boeing Capital Corp., |
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Pembroke Group Ltd. and Singapore Aircraft Leasing Enterprise, and |
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. Six major engine leasing companies, including GE Engine Leasing, Engine Lease Finance |
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Corporation, Pratt & Whitney Engine Leasing LLC, Willis Lease Finance Corporation, Rolls |
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Royce and Partners Finance and Shannon Engine Support Ltd. |
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. On October 18, 2006, GE Commercial Aviation Services completed the acquisition of The |
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Memphis Group, Inc., an aircraft parts trading company. This acquisition could provide |
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competition to AER's integrated business strategy. |
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Use of $140 in IPO proceeds from sale of 6.8mm shares |
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(shareholders intend to sell 19.3mm shares) |
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. Repay a portion of debt incurred in connection with the acquisition of AeroTurbine in April 2006 |
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============================================== |
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Spirit Aerosystems |
SPR, C+, 7 |
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parts for commercial & military aircraft. |
Post-IPO shrs:128mm |
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Wichita, Kansas |
9-Sept 06* |
3-Sept 06** |
IPO Mkt |
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Rev ($mm) |
$2,356 |
$830 |
Cap (mm) |
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Gross profit % |
56.4% |
n/a |
$3,072 |
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Profit (loss) ($mm) |
$94.0 |
$34.0 |
@$24 |
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Profit (loss) % |
4% |
4% |
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*nine months ended 9/30/06 |
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**six months ended 9/30/06 |
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VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
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Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
|
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Spirit Aerosys (SPR) |
$3,072 |
0.9 |
23 |
7.0 |
5.4 |
41% |
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Note: the price-to-tangible book value can't be below price-to-book value, |
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so there appears to be an inconsistency in the S-1 filing |
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SCORECARD |
Mgt |
Market |
Market Do- |
Proprie- |
Total |
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1-5, 5 is high |
Growth |
mination |
tary |
rating |
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20 is perfect |
2 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
7 |
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Summary |
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. Stable business with a 5.2 year backlog at current delivery rates |
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. Growth depends on growth from Boeing & Airbus (and the ability to access more business from Airbus) |
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. Annualized (from Sept 2006 quarter) P/E ratio seems on the high side |
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Leveraged buyout (see below) -- $2.5bb profit |
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. Equity sponsor invested $375mm cash inJune 2005 |
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. Expects to receive $1bb from IPO proceeds |
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. Remaining equity forth $1.8bb |
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. After return of $375mm in equity, that's a profit of $2.5bb |
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Business |
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. The largest independent non-OEM designer and manufacturer of aerostructures in the world. |
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Aerostructures are structural components such as fuselages, propulsion systems and wing systems |
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for commercial and military aircraft, including Fuselage Systems, Propulsion Systems and Wing |
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Systems. |
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. Sales related to large commercial aircraft production, some of which may be used in military |
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applications, represented 99% of revenues for the nine months ended September 28, 2006. |
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. For the quarter ended Sept 30, 2006 Fuselage Systems, Propulsion Systems, Wing Systems and |
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All Other represented 49%, 27%, 23% and 1%, respectively, of revenues. |
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Largest independent supplier of aerostructures to both Boeing and Airbus. |
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. Manufactures aerostructures for every Boeing commercial aircraft currently in production, |
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including over 70% of the airframe content for the Boeing B737. |
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. Also awarded a contract that makes SOR the largest aerostructures content supplier on the |
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Boeing B787, Boeing's next generation twin aisle aircraft. |
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. SPR believes it is the largest content supplier for the wing for the Airbus A320 family and is a |
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significant supplier for Airbus' new A380. |
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Backlog |
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The current backlog represents approximately 5.2 years of production at expected 2006 delivery |
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rates. |
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Industry Overview |
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. SPR believes the global market for aerostructures is estimated to have totaled $24 billion in |
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annual sales in 2004. |
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. Currently, OEMs outsource approximately half of the aerostructures market to independent third |
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parties such as SPR. |
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. SPR expects the outsourcing of the design, engineering and manufacturing of aerostructures to |
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increase as OEMs increasingly focus operations on final assembly and support services for their customers. |
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. SOR estimates that the commercial sector represents approximately 61% of the total |
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aerostructures market, while the military sector represents approximately 28% and the |
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modifications, upgrades, repairs and spares sector represents approximately 11%. |
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Demand |
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. Demand for commercial aerostructures is directly correlated to demand for new aircraft. New |
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large commercial aircraft deliveries by Boeing and Airbus totaled 668 in 2005, up from 605 in |
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2004 and 586 in 2003, which was the most recent cyclical trough following the 1999 peak of 914 |
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deliveries. |
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. Demand for aircraft has rebounded since 2003, resulting in record orders in 2005 for 2,057 |
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Boeing and Airbus aircraft, which are expected to be delivered over the next several years. . |
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According to published estimates by Boeing and Airbus, they expect to deliver a combined total of |
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approximately 825 commercial aircraft in 2006. |
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. As of September 30, 2006, Boeing and Airbus had a combined backlog of 4,294 commercial |
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aircraft, which has grown from a combined backlog of 2,597 commercial aircraft as of December |
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31, 2004. |
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Long term supply agreements with Boeing & Airbus |
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. For the nine months ended September 28, 2006, 89% and 10% of combined revenues (assuming |
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the BAE Acquisition occurred on January 1, 2006) were generated from sales to Boeing and |
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Airbus, respectively. |
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. Currently the sole-source supplier of 96% of the products sold to Boeing and Airbus, as |
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measured by dollar value of the products sold. |
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. Under supply agreements with Boeing and Airbus, SPR supplies essentially all of its products |
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for the life of the aircraft program (other than the A380), including commercial derivative models. |
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For the A380 SOR has a long-term supply contract with Airbus that covers a fixed number of |
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product units. |
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Leveraged buy-out |
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. Spirit's operations commenced on June 17, 2005 following the acquisition of Boeing's |
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commercial aerostructures manufacturing operations located in Wichita, Kansas, Tulsa, Oklahoma |
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and McAlester, Oklahoma, collectively referred to as Boeing Wichita. |
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. On April 1, 2006, SPR a supplier to Airbus through the acquisition of the aerostructures division |
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of BAE Systems, or BAE Aerostructures, headquartered in Prestwick, Scotland |
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. Although Spirit Holdings is a recently-formed company, its predecessor, Boeing Wichita, had 75 |
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years of operating history and expertise in the commercial and military aerostructures industry. |
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The Boeing Acquisition and Related Transactions |
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. In December 2004 and February 2005, an investor group led by Onex Partners LP and Onex |
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Corp (see below) formed the companies of Spirit and Spirit Holdings, respectively, for the purpose of |
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acquiring Boeing Wichita. |
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. On June 16, 2005, Spirit acquired Boeing Wichita for a cash purchase price of $904 million and |
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the assumption of certain liabilities, pursuant to the Asset Purchase Agreement |
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. The acquisition was financed through borrowings of a $700 million Term Loan B under Senior |
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Secured Credit Facilities and |
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. An equity investment of $375 million. |
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Cost Savings |
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. In connection with and since the Boeing Acquisition, Spirit was able to achieve substantial cost |
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reductions by renegotiating labor contracts, reducing pension and fringe benefit costs and utilizing |
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strategic sourcing to lower the cost of procuring raw materials and certain internal processes |
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Recent Events |
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BAE Aerostructures acquisition |
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. On April 1, 2006, through the wholly-owned subsidiary, Spirit Europe, acquired BAE |
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Aerostructures for a cash purchase price of approximately $145.7 million and the assumption of |
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certain normal course liabilities (including accounts payable of approximately $57.8 million) |
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. Spirit Europe manufactures leading and trailing wing edges and other wing components for |
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commercial aircraft programs for Airbus and Boeing and produces various aerostructure |
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components for certain Raytheon business jets. |
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. The BAE Acquisition provides SPR with a foundation to increase future sales to Airbus, as |
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Spirit Europe is a key supplier of wing and flight control surfaces for the A320 platform, Airbus' |
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core single aisle program, and of wing components for the A380 platform, one of Airbus' most |
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important new programs and the world's largest commercial passenger aircraft. |
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. Under supply agreements with Airbus, SPR supplies most of its products for the life of the |
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aircraft program, including commercial derivative models, with pricing determined through 2010. |
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For the A380, we have a long-term supply contract with Airbus that covers a fixed number of units. |
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Boeing Strike |
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. On September 2, 2005, Boeing experienced a strike during collective bargaining discussions with |
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the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers, or the IAM. |
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. At the onset of the strike, Boeing implemented a ship-in-place plan for all Spirit-produced major |
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components. |
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. During the ship-in-place period, SPR continued production at a reduced rate, but did not |
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physically deliver any products to Boeing, other than miscellaneous spares and small components. |
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. SPR recognized revenue on these ship-in-place units consistent with contractual terms |
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. After Boeing reached a three-year agreement with the IAM on September 29, 2005, Spirit and |
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Boeing worked together to return production to normal rates by January 2006. |
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. The reduced production rates during and for a period of time after the strike reduced Spirit's |
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revenue by an estimated $172 million for the six and one-half months ended December 29, 2005 |
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and negatively impacted revenue, income and cash flows for the first quarter of 2006. |
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Competition |
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. Although SPR says it s the largest aerostructures supplier with a 19% market share, it also says |
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the aerostructures market remains highly fragmented. |
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. Primary competition comes from either work performed by internal divisions of OEMs or third |
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party aerostructures suppliers. |
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. Principal competitors among OEMs may include Airbus S.A.S., Boeing, Dassault Aviation, |
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Embraer Brazilian Aviation Co., Gulfstream Aerospace Co., Lockheed Martin Corp., Northrop |
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Grumman Corporation, Raytheon Company and Textron Inc. |
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. Principal competitors among non-OEM aerostructures suppliers are Alenia Aeronautica, Fuji |
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Aerospace Technology Co., Ltd., GKN Aerospace, The Goodrich Corporation, Kawasaki |
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Precision Machinery (U.S.A.), Inc., Mitsubishi Electric Corporation, Saab AB, Snecma, Triumph |
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Group, Inc. and Vought Aircraft Industries. |
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Employees |
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As of October 15, 2006, had 11,600 employees, including contract labor, located in three U.S. |
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facilities. 81% of U.S. employees are represented by five unions. |
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Principal Equity Investor |
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. Onex Partners LP is an approximately $1.7 billion private equity fund established in 2003 by |
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Onex Corporation. Onex Partners LP provides committed capital for Onex-sponsored acquisitions. |
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. Onex Corporation is a diversified company with annual consolidated revenues of approximately |
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$16.5 billion and 136,000 employees. |
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. Onex’s subordinate voting shares are listed and traded on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the |
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symbol "OCX". Onex is one of Canada’s largest companies with global operations in the service, |
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manufacturing and technology industries. |
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. Onex has extensive experience carving divisions out of large, multinational corporations and |
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establishing them as stand alone enterprises. Other Onex operating companies include Celestica |
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Inc., Center for Diagnostic Imaging, Inc., Cineplex Entertainment Limited Partnership, |
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ClientLogic Corporation, Cosmetic Essence, Inc., Emergency Medical Services Corporation, |
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Radian Communication Services Corporation and Skilled Healthcare Group, Inc. |
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Use of $229mm from sale of 10.4mm shares |
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(shareholders intend to sell 41.7mm shares, a $1 billion payday) |
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. Repay $100 million of debt |
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. Pay $129 million of obligations due under the Union Equity Participation Plan |
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|
============================================== |
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Willdan Group |
WLDN, C+, 6 |
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outsources services to government |
Post-IPO shrs:6.7mm |
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Anaheim, CA |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
Sept 05* |
Sept 06* |
IPO Mkt |
|
Rev ($mm) |
$55 |
$58 |
$67 |
$50 |
$59 |
Cap (mm) |
|
Direct cost % |
42% |
39% |
40% |
41% |
39% |
$67 |
|
Profit (loss) ($mm)* |
$2 |
$2 |
($2) |
$2 |
$5 |
@$24 |
|
Profit (loss) % |
3% |
4% |
-3% |
3% |
9% |
|
|
*proforma with income taxes after converstion to a C from S corp |
*nine months ended Sept |
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VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
|
Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
|
|
Willdan Group (WLDN) |
$67 |
0.9 |
9 |
2.4 |
2.7 |
42% |
|
SCORECARD |
Mgt |
Market |
Market Do- |
Proprie- |
Total |
|
|
1-5, 5 is high |
Growth |
mination |
tary |
rating |
||
|
20 is perfect |
2 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
6 |
|
|
Willdan Group (WLDN) |
$67 |
0.9 |
9 |
2.4 |
2.7 |
42% |
|
outsources services to government |
Post-IPO shrs:6.7mm |
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|
Two reasons third quarter income is inflated |
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|
One time increase in third quarter operating income |
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. In the third quarter of fiscal year 2005, WLDN experienced a larger than normal increase in |
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operating income as a result of being awarded projects with higher operating margins than we |
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typically experience. |
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. WLDN believes this increase in operating income in the third quarter of fiscal year 2005 was a |
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one-time occurrence and not an indication of a seasonal trend in our business. |
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Life Insurance Proceeds |
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. On May 15, 2006, WLDN's co-founder and chief executive officer, Dan W. Heil, passed away. . |
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WLDN carried two life insurance policies on Mr. Heil. In June and July 2006, WLDN received |
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the cash proceeds from these two policies of $2.3 million. |
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Summary |
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. IPO'ing on inflated 3rd quarter figures, see above |
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. Co-founder passed away six months ago, business effect unclear |
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Business |
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. Privatized governmental services for small and mid-sized public agencies in California and other |
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western states, |
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. Mostly engineering services: civil engineering; building and safety services; geotechnical |
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engineering; plus financial and economic consulting; and a little disaster preparedness and |
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homeland security. |
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. Operates through a network of over 20 offices located throughout California and other western |
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states and has a staff of 668 as of September 29, 2006 that includes licensed engineers and other |
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professionals. |
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. Core clients are public agencies in communities with populations ranging from 10,000 to |
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300,000 people |
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. Provide services to 60% of the 478 cities and over 60% of the 58 counties in California. Also |
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serves special districts, school districts and other public agencies. |
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Legal proceedings |
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. In the fourth quarter of 2005, following a trial in the Los Angeles County Superior Court, the |
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jury rendered a verdict against WLDN and awarded damages to the City in the amount of $6.3 |
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million, including attorney's fees, interest and costs. |
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. City of West Hollywood, California: the above legal matter concerns a construction project in the |
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City of West Hollywood for the improvement of Santa Monica Boulevard. The project required |
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the reconstruction of approximately three miles of roadway. The city and the general contractor |
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claimed that the structural design WLDN prepared was inadequate for the volume and type of |
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traffic on Santa Monica Boulevard. The City also claimed that WLDN failed to control the costs |
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of the project due to contractor claims for extra costs. |
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. As of December 30, 2005, WLDN believed that $3.2 million of the damages was covered by its |
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professional liability insurance policy. |
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. Therefore, in fiscal year 2005, WLDN expensed $2.7 million of this judgment and recorded |
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related interest expense of $0.4 million. In our consolidated balance sheet as of December 30, |
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2005, reflected a total liability of $6.3 million and the related receivable of $3.2 million from the |
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insurance company. |
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. In the third quarter of 2006, obtained a court ruling awarding $1.0 million on a claim for |
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indemnity, recovering the settlement amount and interest thereon and attorney fees and costs in |
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connection with an unrelated claim that arose in fiscal year 2002. Because the claim arose in 2002 |
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and WLDN's insurance carrier previously paid the settlement amount, WLDN will be able to |
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replenish its insurance coverage by approximately $1.0 million for that policy year. |
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. As a result, WLDN has $1.0 million of additional insurance coverage available for the West |
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Hollywood case discussed above since that claim also arose in 2002. |
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. Therefore, WLDN reflected an additional receivable of approximately $1.0 million from the |
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insurance company in the third quarter of 2006 and a corresponding reduction in the litigation |
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accrual expense related to the West Hollywood case. |
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Competition |
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. Primary competitors for the Engineering Services segment include: Charles Abbott & Associates, |
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Inc., Bureau Veritas, Harris & Associates, Psomas, RBF Consulting, TetraTech, Inc., Stantec, Inc. |
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and Jacobs Engineering Group, Inc. |
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. For the Public Finance Services segment, chief competitors include: David Taussig & |
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Associates, Harris & Associates, Inc., NBS Government Finance Group and Ernst & Young LLP. |
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. WLDN believe its Homeland Security Services segment competes primarily with EG&G (a |
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division of URS Corporation) and SRA International, Inc. |
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Use of $16.9mm in IPO proceeds from sale of 2mm shares |
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(shareholders intend to sell 800,000 shares) |
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. Working capital and other general corporate purposes, including the financing of acquisitions of |
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complementary businesses or services |
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. To fund a payment of $6.3 million as the estimated final S Corporation distribution to |
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stockholders who were stockholders immediately prior to this offering, including some of our |
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officers, directors and significant employees |
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