IPOdesktop.com Pre-IPO grading & scoring methodology
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Financial Performance & Scoring -- © 2006 Gaskins IPO Desktop/IPOdesktop |
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Pre-IPO analysis, grading & scoring -- updated Nov 15 |
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. Business Model Rating Criteria |
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A = high growth market, potential leader; B = more competitive market; C= 'public venture capital' |
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. Calculations |
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. IPO Price to annualized Sales Ratio -- (Price / Sales) |
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Numerator |
Denominator |
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IPO market capitalization… |
Annualized Sales (last six or nine months) |
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(post-IPO # of shares times mid-point of IPO price range) |
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. IPO Price to annualized Earnings (loss) -- (Price / Earnings) |
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Numerator |
Denominator |
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IPO market cap |
Annualized Earnings (loss) from the last quarter |
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========================================================================= |
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SEARCH BY COMPANY |
In your browser use 'Edit/Find' to search for companies |
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or ticker for analysis |
scheduled below |
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========================================================================= |
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Summary ratios for the week of Nov 13 (IPOs not previously analyzed, scored & graded) |
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(P/E ratios based on annualizing recent results, see notes) |
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VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
|
Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
|
|
Allot Comm (ALLT) |
$244 |
7.3 |
327 |
3.4 |
2.9 |
27% |
|
optimization products for broadband |
Post-IPO shrs:24mm, includes 3.5mm option shrs |
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Consetlltn Enrgy PtrCEP |
$226 |
6.5 |
19 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
40% |
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oil and natural gas properties: C+, 7 |
Post-IPO units:11.3mm |
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Emergent BioSolu EBSI |
$411 |
4.7 |
-93 |
3.3 |
3.3 |
18% |
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biopharmaceutical -- immunobiotics: C+, 7 |
Post-IPO shrs:27.4mm |
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First Solar (FSLR) |
$1,249 |
11.4 |
-234 |
3.6 |
3.6 |
25% |
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solar modules: B-, 8 |
Post-IPO shrs:70mm |
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Hansen Medical (HNSN) |
$247 |
n/a |
-10 |
3.1 |
3.1 |
30% |
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robotics for use of catheters, C, 6 |
Post-IPO shrs:20.5mm |
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Hertz Global (HTZ) |
$5,457 |
0.7 |
54 |
2.3 |
2.9 |
27% |
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car-equipment rental: C, 7 |
Post-IPO shrs:321mm |
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KBR (KBR) |
$2,648 |
0.3 |
52 |
1.4 |
1.7 |
17% |
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spin-off form Halliburton: C+, 7 |
Post-IPO shrs:166mm |
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NYMEX Holdgs (NMX) |
$4,325 |
9.0 |
30 |
15.2 |
16.7 |
7% |
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futures exchange and clearinghouse: B, 9 |
Post-IPO shrs:86.5mm |
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Venoco (VQ) |
$854 |
3.2 |
78 |
4.5 |
4.5 |
29% |
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oil-natural gas development: C, 7 |
Post-IPO shrs:43mm |
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========================================================================= |
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SEARCH BY COMPANY |
In your browser use 'Edit/Find' to search for companies |
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or ticker for analysis |
scheduled below |
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========================================================================= |
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Allot Communications |
ALLT, C+, 7 |
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optimization products for broadband |
Post-IPO shrs:24mm, includes 3.5mm option shrs |
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Hod-Hasharon, Israel |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
Sept 05* |
Sept 06* |
IPO Mkt |
|
Rev ($mm) |
$15 |
$18 |
$23 |
$16 |
$25 |
Cap (mm) |
|
Gross profit |
$11 |
$14 |
$18 |
$12 |
$19 |
$244 |
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Gross profit % |
76% |
75% |
77% |
75% |
78% |
@$10 |
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Profit (loss) ($mm) |
-$2.3 |
-$3.3 |
-$2.4 |
-$2.7 |
$0.6 |
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Profit (loss) % |
-16% |
-18% |
-10% |
-17% |
2% |
|
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*for the nine months ended Sept 30 |
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VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
|
Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
|
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Allot Comm (ALLT) |
$244 |
7.3 |
327 |
3.4 |
2.9 |
27% |
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SCORECARD |
Mgt |
Market |
Market Do- |
Proprie- |
Total |
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1-5, 5 is high |
Growth |
mination |
tary |
rating |
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20 is perfect |
2 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
7 |
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Summary |
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. Significant top line revenue growth, high gross margins (above 75%) |
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. Broadband market growing, in part due to video |
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. Just breaking into profitabliity |
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. Srong competition from Cisco (CSCO, $162bb market cap) |
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. Orders from largest customer set to decline, see 'customer concentration' below |
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Business |
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. Broadband service optimization solutions using advanced deep packet inspection, or DPI, |
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technology. |
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. Provides broadband service providers and enterprises with real-time, highly granular visibility |
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into, and control of, network traffic, and enable them to efficiently and effectively manage and |
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optimize their networks. |
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Benefits |
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. End-customers use ALLT solutions to create sophisticated policies to monitor network |
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applications, enforce quality of service policies that guarantee mission-critical application |
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performance, mitigate security risks and leverage network infrastructure investments. |
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. Carrier-class products are used by service providers to offer subscriber-based and application |
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based tiered services that enable them to optimize their service offerings, reduce churn rates and |
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increase ARPU. |
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Sales & marketing |
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Sells products through channel partners, which include distributors, resellers, OEMs and system |
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integrators. End customers of our products include carriers, cable operators, wireless and wireline |
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Internet service providers, educational institutions, governments and enterprises. |
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Customer concentration |
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NTL sales to decline |
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. Derived 16% of revenues in 2005 and 27% in the first nine months of 2006 from a single system |
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integrator for products in the United Kingdom, primarily in connection with the deployment of our |
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products by NTL Group Limited, a leading United Kingdom cable operator. |
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. During these periods no other end-customer accounted for more than 5% of revenues. |
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. Expects that sales attributable to NTL will decline significantly as a percentage of revenue in the |
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last quarter of 2006 and in 2007 as deployment of a majority of products by NTL is completed and |
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as sales to other customers increase. |
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9% of revenues in 2005 from a single U.S. distributor of products to other resellers and system |
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integrators in the United States. |
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Intellectual property |
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As of September 30, 2006, had two U.S. patents and four pending patent applications in the |
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United States. Also has one pending counterpart application outside of the United States, filed |
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pursuant to the Patent Cooperation Treaty |
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Competition |
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Principal competitors are Cisco Systems (through its acquisition of P-Cube), Sandvine and |
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Ellacoya Networks in the service provider market, and Packeteer in the enterprise market |
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Employees |
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As of September 30, 2006, we had 232 employees of whom 170 were based in Israel, 29 in the |
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United States and the remainder in Asia and Europe. |
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Use of $58.5mm in IPO proceeds |
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For research and development activities, expand our business development and marketing |
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activities, and the remaining proceeds for general corporate purposes and working capital. |
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. May also use a portion of the net proceeds to acquire or invest in complementary companies, |
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products or technologies, although currently does not have any acquisitions or investments |
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planned. |
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============================================== |
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Constellation Energy Ptr |
CEP, C+, 7 |
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oil and natural gas properties |
Post-IPO units:11.3mm |
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Baltimore, Maryland |
2005 |
Sept 06* |
IPO Mkt |
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Revenue ($mm) |
proforma |
$24 |
$26 |
Cap (mm) |
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Profit (loss) ($mm) |
$0.8 |
$9.0 |
$226 |
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Profit (loss) % |
3.2% |
34.5% |
@$20 |
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*for the nine months ended Sept 30 |
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VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
|
Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
|
|
Consetlltn Enrgy PtrCEP |
$226 |
6.5 |
19 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
40% |
|
SCORECARD |
Mgt |
Market |
Market Do- |
Proprie- |
Total |
|
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1-5, 5 is high |
Growth |
mination |
tary |
rating |
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20 is perfect |
2 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
7 |
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Summary |
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. Limited partnership intending to distribute at a 9.25% annual rate on units |
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. Based on results generated, however, when oil/enery prices were higher |
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. Formed by a NYSE company with a market cap of $16bb, which will receive a $107mm payout on the IPO |
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Initial distribution policy |
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. $0.4625 per unit quarterly, or $1.85 per unit per year |
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. 9.25% annual rate at the price range mid-point |
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Business |
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. Limited liability company that was formed by Constellation (NYSE:CEG) in February 2005 to |
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acquire coalbed methane reserves and production. |
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. Focused on the acquisition, development and exploitation of oil and natural gas properties, or |
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E&P properties, as well as related midstream assets |
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. Average proved reserve-to-production ratio is approximately 25 years |
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Relationship with Constellation (NYSE: CEG, $16bb market cap) |
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. Constellation, an integrated energy company with 2005 revenues of approximately $17.1 billion |
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and total assets of approximately $20.2 billion as of September 30, 2006. |
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. Constellation is engaged in numerous aspects of the energy industry, including, through CCG, oil |
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and natural gas exploration and production, or E&P, natural gas transportation, natural gas storage |
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and physical and financial natural gas trading. |
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Use of $81mm in IPO proceeds plus |
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$30mm in new borrowings under a new reserve-based credit facility |
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. Distribution to CEPH of $106.8 million. CEPH is subsidiary of the parent, Constellation (NYSE:CEG) |
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. Contribution by CHI for the Class D interests, $8mm |
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. Balance for working capital |
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=================================================== |
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Emergent BioSolutions |
EBSI, C+, 7 |
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biopharmaceutical -- immunobiotics, vaccines |
Post-IPO shrs:27.4mm |
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Gaithersburg, Maryland |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
Sept 05* |
Sept 06* |
IPO Mkt |
|
Rev ($mm) |
$56 |
$84 |
$131 |
$87 |
$66 |
Cap (mm) |
|
Productiion cost ($mm) |
$22 |
$30 |
$32 |
$23 |
$12 |
$411 |
|
Production cost % |
39% |
36% |
24% |
26% |
17.6% |
@$10 |
|
SG&A cost |
$20 |
$30 |
$43 |
$30 |
$33 |
|
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SG&A cost & |
36% |
36% |
33% |
34% |
50% |
|
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Profit (loss) ($mm) |
$4.5 |
$11.5 |
$15.8 |
$6.3 |
-$3.3 |
|
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Profit (loss) % |
8% |
14% |
12% |
7% |
-5% |
|
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*for the nine months ended Sept 30 |
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VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
|
Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
|
|
Emergent BioSolu EBSI |
$411 |
4.7 |
-93 |
3.3 |
3.3 |
18% |
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SCORECARD |
Mgt |
Market |
Market Do- |
Proprie- |
Total |
|
|
1-5, 5 is high |
Growth |
mination |
tary |
rating |
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20 is perfect |
2 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
7 |
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Summary |
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. Eratic quarterly results based shipments into a large Department of Defense (DoD) contract |
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. Lost money for the nine months ended Sept 30 |
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. DoD is the only customer |
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. Developing other vaccines, see collaboration below |
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Business |
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. Biopharmaceutical company focused on immunobiotics. |
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. Immunobiotics are pharmaceutical products, such as vaccines and immune globulins, that induce |
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or assist the body's immune system to prevent or treat disease. |
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Two business segments -- biodefense and commercial. |
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. In the biodefense business, develops and commercializes immunobiotics for use against |
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biological agents that are potential weapons of bioterrorism. |
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. In the commercial business, develops immunobiotics for use against infectious diseases with |
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significant unmet or underserved medical needs. |
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BioThrax |
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. Manufactures and market BioThrax®, also referred to as anthrax vaccine adsorbed, the only |
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anthrax vaccine approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, or FDA. |
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. Has derived and expect for the foreseeable future to continue to derive substantially all of |
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revenue from sales of BioThrax. |
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Department of Defense contracts |
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. Current contract with the DoD provides for the supply of a minimum of approximately 1.5 |
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million additional doses of BioThrax to the DoD through September 2007. |
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. In April 2006, the DoD issued a notice that it intends to negotiate a sole source fixed price |
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contract for the purchase of up to an additional 11 million doses of BioThrax over one base |
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contract year plus four option years. |
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. In May 2005, we entered into an agreement to supply five million doses of BioThrax to HHS for |
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placement into the strategic national stockpile for a fixed price of $123 million. |
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. Completed delivery of all five million doses by February 2006, seven months earlier than |
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required. |
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. In May 2006, entered into a contract modification with HHS for the delivery of an additional five |
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million doses of BioThrax to HHS by May 2007 for a fixed price of $120 million. |
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. Delivered approximately one million doses of BioThrax under this contract modification through |
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September 2006. |
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Sanofi Pasteur collaboration |
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. In May 2006, entered into a collaboration agreement with Sanofi Pasteur relating to the |
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development and commercialization of our meningitis B vaccine candidate and received a $3.8 |
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million upfront license fee. |
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. This agreement also provides for a series of milestone payments upon the achievement of |
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specified development and commercialization objectives, payments for development work under |
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the collaboration and royalties on net sales of this product. |
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Expects revenues to fluctuate |
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. Expects that revenues will continue to vary, on a quarterly basis primarily because of the timing |
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of fulfilling orders for BioThrax. |
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. Expects contracts and grant revenues to increase in 2006 compared to 2005 as EBSI receives |
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reimbursement for development expenses under the meningitis B collaboration with Sanofi |
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Pasteur, funding from the Wellcome Trust for costs associated with the completed Phase I clinical |
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trial and planned Phase II clinical trial of the typhoid vaccine candidate in Vietnam and funding |
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from NIAID for costs associated with the animal efficacy studies in rabbits of EBSI's anthrax |
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immune globulin candidate. |
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Intellectual property |
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. As of October 20, 2006, owned or licensed a total of 20 U.S. patents and 44 U.S. patent |
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applications relating to biodefense and commercial product candidates as well as numerous |
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foreign counterparts to many of these patents and patent applications. |
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. Patent portfolio includes patents and patent applications with claims directed to compositions of |
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matter, pharmaceutical formulations and methods of use. |
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Competition |
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. GlaxoSmithKline, Sanofi-Aventis, Wyeth, Merck and Chiron generated approximately 85% of |
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total vaccine revenues in 2005 |
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. Smaller or more focused companies, including VaxGen, Cangene, Human Genome Sciences, |
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Acambis, Avant Immunotherapeutics and Avecia, may also prove to be significant competitors, |
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particularly through collaborative arrangements with large and established companies. |
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Use of $66mm in IPO proceeds |
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o $10 million of these net proceeds to fund development of our biodefense product candidates, |
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comprised of $3 million for label expansions and improvements for BioThrax, $2 million for a |
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next generation anthrax vaccine candidate and $5 million for our anthrax immune globulin |
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candidate; |
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o $19 million of these net proceeds to fund clinical development of our commercial product |
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candidates, comprised of $6 million for our typhoid vaccine candidate and $13 million for |
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EBSI's hepatitis B therapeutic vaccine candidate; |
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o $25 million of these net proceeds to fund a portion of the construction, validation and |
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qualification costs for a new manufacturing facility in Lansing, Michigan and the initial |
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engineering design and preliminary utility build out of the manufacturing facilities in Frederick, |
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Maryland; and |
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o the balance of these net proceeds for general corporate purposes, which may include the |
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expansion of our sales and marketing organization, the acquisition or in license of technologies, |
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products or businesses, working capital and capital expenditures |
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=========================================================== |
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First Solar |
FSLR, B-, 8 |
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solar modules |
Post-IPO shrs:70mm |
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|
Phoenix, AZ |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
Sept 05* |
Sept 06* |
IPO Mkt |
|
Rev ($mm) |
$3 |
$14 |
$48 |
$35 |
$82 |
Cap (mm) |
|
Gross profit |
-$8 |
-$5 |
$17 |
$13 |
$29 |
$1,249 |
|
Gross profit % |
-259% |
-39% |
35% |
37% |
35% |
@$18 |
|
Profit (loss) ($mm) |
-$28 |
-$17 |
-$7 |
$1 |
-$4 |
|
|
Profit (loss) % |
-875% |
-124% |
-14% |
2% |
-5% |
|
|
Note: Sept 06 results includes $7.75mm in production startup costs |
*for the nine months ended Sept 30 |
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Pretax profit not counting production startup costs |
$4 |
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|
& of revenues |
4.6% |
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|
VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
|
Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
|
|
First Solar (FSLR) |
$1,249 |
11.4 |
-234 |
3.6 |
3.6 |
25% |
|
SCORECARD |
Mgt |
Market |
Market Do- |
Proprie- |
Total |
|
|
1-5, 5 is high |
Growth |
mination |
tary |
rating |
||
|
20 is perfect |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
8 |
|
|
Summary |
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|
. Signficant top line revenue growth |
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|
. Low cost product selling into a growing market |
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|
. Ramping up production |
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. If one-time production startup costs are backed out, would have been profitable for the Sept nine months |
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Business |
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|
. Solar modules using a proprietary thin film semiconductor technology that has allowed FSLR to |
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reduce average solar module manufacturing costs to among the lowest in the world. |
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|
. Average manufacturing costs were $1.59 per Watt in 2005 and $1.50 per Watt in the first nine |
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months of 2006, which we believe were significantly less than those of traditional crystalline |
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silicon solar module manufacturers. |
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. By continuing to expand production and improve technology and manufacturing process, FSLR |
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believes that it can further reduce manufacturing costs per Watt and improve the cost advantage |
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over traditional crystalline silicon solar module manufacturers. |
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Objective & competitive advantages |
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|
Objective |
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|
. To become, by 2010, the first solar module manufacturer to offer a solar electricity solution that |
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competes on a non-subsidized basis |
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. With the price of retail electricity in key markets in the United States, Europe and Asia. |
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Stable supply of raw materials |
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|
. FSLR does not believe it is currently constrained by and does not foresee a shortage of cadmium |
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|
telluride, its most critical semiconductor material. In addition, because of the relatively small |
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amount of semiconductor material FSLR uses, FSLR believes its exposure to cadmium telluride |
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|
price increases is limited. |
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|
. By contrast, Solarbuzz estimates that a shortage of silicon feedstock will constrain the production |
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|
of certain crystalline silicon solar module manufacturers until 2008. |
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|
Low cost |
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|
. FSLR believes it is the first company to integrate non-silicon thin film technology into high |
||||||
|
volume low cost production. |
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|
. FSLR's manufacturing process transforms an inexpensive 2ft x 4ft (60cm x 120cm) sheet of |
||||||
|
glass into a complete solar module in less than three hours, using 1% of the semiconductor |
||||||
|
material used to produce traditional crystalline silicon solar modules. |
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|
Market supply growth |
||||||
|
. Worldwide, annual installations by the photovoltaic industry grew from 0.3GW in 2001 to |
||||||
|
1.5GW in 2005, representing an average annual growth rate of over 43%. |
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|
. In 2005, the cumulative installed capacity of solar modules surpassed 5GW. |
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|
Sales & demand |
||||||
|
. Historically, almost all of net sales have been to project developers and system integrators |
||||||
|
headquartered in Germany, who then resell FSLR solar modules to end-users. |
||||||
|
. Strong market demand, a positive customer response to FSLR's solar modules and its ability to |
||||||
|
expand production without raw material constraints |
||||||
|
. Present FSLR with the opportunity to expand sales rapidly and increase market share. |
||||||
|
Production lines expand |
||||||
|
. Currently, FSLR operates three 25MW production lines. FSLR refers to the original 25MW |
||||||
|
production line in its Ohio facility as our base plant. |
||||||
|
. In August 2006, FSLR completed an expansion of its Ohio facility, adding two 25MW |
||||||
|
production lines, the Ohio expansion. |
||||||
|
. With the completion of the Ohio expansion, FSLR will have an annual manufacturing capacity of |
||||||
|
75MW, and will have become the largest thin film solar module manufacturer in the world. |
||||||
|
. Currently FSLR is building four 25MW production lines in Germany |
||||||
|
. After FSLR's German plant reaches full capacity, estimated for the second half of 2007, FSLR |
||||||
|
will have an annual manufacturing capacity of 175MW. |
||||||
|
. FSLR is also in the planning stage for a new manufacturing plant in Asia. |
||||||
|
Pre-sold capacity through Long Term Supply Contracts |
||||||
|
. FSLR recently entered into long-term solar module supply contracts with six project developers |
||||||
|
and system integrators headquartered in Germany that allow for approximately €1.2 billion ($1.4 |
||||||
|
billion at an assumed exchange rate of $1.20/€1.00) in sales from 2006 to 2011. |
||||||
|
. These Long Term Supply Contracts contemplate the manufacture and sale of a total of 745MW |
||||||
|
of solar modules. |
||||||
|
. Under each of FSLR's Long Term Supply Contracts, FSLR has a unilateral option, exercisable |
||||||
|
until December 31, 2006, to increase the sales volumes and extend such contract through 2012 |
||||||
|
. FSLR plans to exercise each option promptly following the completion of this offering, after |
||||||
|
which these contracts will allow for €1.9 billion ($2.3 billion at an assumed exchange rate of |
||||||
|
$1.20/€1.00) in sales from 2006 to 2012 for a total of 1,270MW of solar modules. |
||||||
|
. The sales contemplated by the Long Term Supply Contracts increase year over year through |
||||||
|
2008 and remain constant thereafter. |
||||||
|
. The Long Term Supply Contracts require a 6.5% annual decline in sales price and an 5% annual |
||||||
|
increase from 2007 to 2009 in the minimum average sellable Watts per module |
||||||
|
. In order to satisfy contractual requirements and to address additional market demand, FSLR is |
||||||
|
expanding its annual manufacturing capacity from 75MW to 175MW by the second half of 2007. |
||||||
|
Financial reporting risk |
||||||
|
. As of December 31, 2005, did not maintain effective controls over the preparation, review and |
||||||
|
presentation and disclosure of consolidated financial statements due to a lack of personnel with |
||||||
|
experience in financial reporting and control procedures necessary for SEC registrants. |
||||||
|
. This failure caused several significant deficiencies, four of which had a large enough impact on |
||||||
|
operating results to individually constitute material weaknesses. |
||||||
|
Intellectual property |
||||||
|
. As of September 30, 2006, in the United States FSLR held 26 patents, which will expire at various |
||||||
|
times between 2007 and 2023, and had 15 patent applications pending. |
||||||
|
. Also held 16 patents and had 37 patent applications pending in foreign jurisdictions. |
||||||
|
Competition |
||||||
|
. Main sources of competition are crystalline silicon solar module manufacturers, other thin film |
||||||
|
solar module manufacturers and companies developing solar thermal and concentrated |
||||||
|
photovoltaic technologies. |
||||||
|
. Among photovoltaic module and cell manufacturers, the principal methods of competition are |
||||||
|
price per Watt, production capacity, conversion efficiency and reliability. |
||||||
|
Global photovoltaic industry |
||||||
|
. At the end of 2005, the global photovoltaic industry consisted of over 100 manufacturers of |
||||||
|
photovoltaic cells and solar modules. |
||||||
|
. Within the PV industry, FSLR faces competition from crystalline silicon photovoltaic cell solar |
||||||
|
module manufacturers, including BP Solar, Evergreen Solar, Kyocera, Motech, Q-Cells, |
||||||
|
Renewable Energy Corporation, Sanyo, Schott Solar, Sharp, SolarWorld, Sunpower and Suntech. . |
||||||
|
Also faces competition from thin film solar module manufacturers, including Antec, Kaneka, |
||||||
|
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Shell Solar and United Solar. |
||||||
|
Thin film expansion |
||||||
|
. With the completion of FSLR's Ohio expansion, has an annual manufacturing capacity of 75MW |
||||||
|
and is the largest thin film manufacturer in the world. |
||||||
|
. According to Photon International, United Solar and Kaneka are the second and third largest thin |
||||||
|
film manufacturers, with estimated 2006 manufacturing capacities of 30MW and 29MW, |
||||||
|
respectively. |
||||||
|
. FSLR's current conversion efficiency of 9% also compares favorably to other thin film |
||||||
|
manufacturers, according to estimates by Sun & Wind Energy: Antec (6.9%); Kaneka (6.3%); |
||||||
|
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (6.3%); Shell Solar (9.3%); and United Solar (6.3%). |
||||||
|
. FSLR's solar module comes only in one size measuring 2ft x 4ft (60cm x 120cm). In contrast, |
||||||
|
some of the thin film competitors, such as United Solar, have developed solar products that are |
||||||
|
flexible and can be tailored to a customer's specifications. |
||||||
|
Other competition |
||||||
|
. FSLR may also face competition from semiconductor manufacturers and semiconductor |
||||||
|
equipment manufacturers, or their customers, several of which have already announced their |
||||||
|
intention to start production of photovoltaic cells, solar modules or turnkey production lines |
||||||
|
. In addition to manufacturers of PV cells and solar modules, FSLR faces competition from |
||||||
|
companies developing solar thermal and concentrated PV technologies. |
||||||
|
Employees |
||||||
|
. On September 30, 2006, had 634 employees, including 491 in manufacturing, 33 in research and |
||||||
|
development, 10 in sales and marketing and 100 in general and administrative. |
||||||
|
. Of these employees, 21 are located in Phoenix, Arizona, 582 are located in Perrysburg, Ohio, 14 |
||||||
|
are located in Mainz, Germany, 2 are located in Berlin, Germany, 2 are located in Brussels, |
||||||
|
Belgium, 12 are located in Frankfurt (Oder), Germany and 1 is located in Denver, Colorado |
||||||
|
History |
||||||
|
. Began developing predecessor technology in 1987 |
||||||
|
. Did not complete the qualification of the pilot manufacturing line until January 2002 and the base |
||||||
|
plant until November 2004. |
||||||
|
. Launched commercial operations in January 2002 through the end of 2005 |
||||||
|
Use of $222.3mm in IPO proceeds from sale of $13.25mm shares |
||||||
|
(shareholders intend to sell 4.25mm shares) |
||||||
|
o $150.0 million to build a manufacturing facility in Asia and approximately $30.0 million to fund |
||||||
|
the associated ramp-up costs; |
||||||
|
o $26.0 million to repay related party debt; and |
||||||
|
o remainder for working capital and general corporate purposes, including potential acquisitions |
||||||
|
and vertical integration |
||||||
|
======================================================= |
||||||
|
Hansen Medical |
HNSN, C, 6 |
|||||
|
roboticsfor use of catheters |
Post-IPO shrs:20.5mm |
|||||
|
Mountain View, CA |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
6-Sep |
Sept 06* |
IPO Mkt |
|
Profit (loss) ($mm) |
-$4 |
-$7 |
-$21 |
-$17 |
-$18 |
Cap (mm) |
|
*for the nine months ended Sept 30 |
$247 |
|||||
|
@$12 |
||||||
|
VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
|
Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
|
|
Hansen Medical (HNSN) |
$247 |
n/a |
-10 |
3.1 |
3.1 |
30% |
|
SCORECARD |
Mgt |
Market |
Market Do- |
Proprie- |
Total |
|
|
1-5, 5 is high |
Growth |
mination |
tary |
rating |
||
|
20 is perfect |
2 |
2 |
0 |
2 |
6 |
|
|
Summary |
||||||
|
. Relatively unique product almost ready to ship |
||||||
|
. Main competitor Stereotaxis (STSX) IPO'd August 12, 2004 and lost $13mm in the June quarter |
||||||
|
. Appears to be a long road to profitablility for HNSN |
||||||
|
Business |
||||||
|
. New generation of medical robotics designed for accurate positioning, manipulation and stable |
||||||
|
control of catheters and catheter-based technologies. |
||||||
|
. Currently have no products approved for sale. To date, has generated no revenue, and we |
||||||
|
have incurred net losses in each year since our inception |
||||||
|
Sensei system |
||||||
|
. Designed to allow physicians to instinctively navigate catheters with greater stability and control |
||||||
|
in interventional procedures. |
||||||
|
. HNSN believes its Sensei system and its corresponding disposable Artisan Control Catheter, or |
||||||
|
Artisan control catheter, will enable physicians to perform procedures that historically have been |
||||||
|
too difficult or time consuming to accomplish routinely with existing catheters and catheter-based |
||||||
|
technologies, or that we believe could be accomplished only by the most skilled physicians. |
||||||
|
Expecting shipments to begin |
||||||
|
. Expects to begin commercial shipments of Sensei system and disposable Artisan control |
||||||
|
catheters in Europe and in the United States in 2007, subject to receiving required regulatory |
||||||
|
clearances. |
||||||
|
. In the United States, are currently seeking clearance from the U.S. Food and Drug |
||||||
|
Administration, or FDA, for the use of the Sensei system and Artisan control catheters for |
||||||
|
mapping the heart anatomy |
||||||
|
Competition |
||||||
|
In electrophysiology, the first targeted market |
||||||
|
o Drug therapies |
||||||
|
. Drug therapy is currently considered the first line treatment for electrophysiological conditions |
||||||
|
such as atrial fibrillation. |
||||||
|
. Not currently aware of drug therapies under development that have the potential to improve the |
||||||
|
success rate of drug treatment for electrophysiological conditions such as atrial fibrillation |
||||||
|
. However, to the extent that more effective drug therapies are developed and approved for use in |
||||||
|
treating these conditions, HNSN will face increased competition. |
||||||
|
o Existing manual catheter-based interventional techniques. |
||||||
|
. The vast majority of interventional EP procedures performed today are performed with several |
||||||
|
types of hand-held catheters. |
||||||
|
. These products evolve rapidly, and their manufacturers are constantly attempting to make them |
||||||
|
easier to use or more efficacious in performing procedures. |
||||||
|
o Minimally invasive surgical procedures |
||||||
|
. A number of manufacturers are attempting to market devices that access the heart through an |
||||||
|
endoscopic surgical technique called thoracoscopy to treat atrial fibrillation. |
||||||
|
. While less invasive than open surgery, these still require a surgical incision and general |
||||||
|
anesthesia, and therefore are more traumatic to the patient than an interventional EP procedure. |
||||||
|
o Magnetic guidance systems for steering catheters. |
||||||
|
. Stereotaxis, Inc. markets a system that has been on the market in the United States and in Europe |
||||||
|
since 2003 and that uses magnets to control the working tip of catheters and other control catheters |
||||||
|
during interventional EP and other procedures. |
||||||
|
. Because the system was introduced prior to HNSN's Sensei system and has a significant installed |
||||||
|
base, HNSN believes it currently leads the market for guidance systems for controlling the |
||||||
|
working tip of catheters and catheter-based technologies. |
||||||
|
o New approaches |
||||||
|
. HNSN expects to face competition from companies that are developing new approaches and |
||||||
|
products for use in interventional procedures. |
||||||
|
. Some of these companies may attempt to use robotic techniques to compete directly with HNSN |
||||||
|
. Many of these companies have an established presence in the field of interventional cardiology, |
||||||
|
including the major imaging, capital equipment and disposables companies that are currently |
||||||
|
selling products in the EP lab. |
||||||
|
Use of $67mm in IPO proceeds |
||||||
|
o $18.0 million for sales, marketing and general administrative activities; |
||||||
|
o $10.0 million for research and product development activities; |
||||||
|
o $8.0 million for capital equipment and tenant improvements; and |
||||||
|
o remainder to fund working capital and other general corporate purposes. |
||||||
|
======================================================== |
||||||
|
Hertz Global |
HTZ, C, 7 |
|||||
|
car-equipment rental |
Post-IPO shrs:321mm |
|||||
|
Park Ridge, NY |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
June 06* |
Sept 06** |
IPO Mkt |
|
Rev ($mm) |
$5,934 |
$6,676 |
$7,469 |
$3,827 |
$6,068 |
Cap (mm) |
|
Interest Exp ($mm) |
$355 |
$384 |
$886 |
$423 |
$673 |
$5,457 |
|
Interest % of rev |
6% |
6% |
12% |
11% |
11% |
@$17 |
|
Profit (loss) ($mm) |
$159 |
$366 |
$3 |
-$33 |
$76 |
|
|
Profit (loss) % |
3% |
5% |
0% |
-1% |
1.3% |
|
|
Note: 2005 & 2006 are proforma for the leveraged buyout |
*for the six months ended June 30 |
|||||
|
**for the nine months ended Sept 30 |
||||||
|
VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
|
Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
|
|
Hertz Global (HTZ) |
$5,457 |
0.7 |
54 |
2.3 |
2.9 |
27% |
|
SCORECARD |
Mgt |
Market |
Market Do- |
Proprie- |
Total |
|
|
1-5, 5 is high |
Growth |
mination |
tary |
rating |
||
|
20 is perfect |
2 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
7 |
|
|
Note: graded C because of the jump in interest charges due to leveraged buy-out |
||||||
|
Compare & contrast |
Price 11/10 |
|||||
|
Hertz Global (HTZ) |
$5,457 |
0.7 |
54 |
2.3 |
2.9 |
|
|
Avis Budget Group (CAR) |
$2,040 |
0.4 |
20 |
n/a* |
n/a* |
$20.51 |
|
CAR assumes proforma pretax income of $130mm for the nine months ended Sept 30, 40% tax rate |
||||||
|
*not available based on a series of upcoming accounting adjustments |
||||||
|
Dollar Thrifty (DTG) |
$1,010 |
0.6 |
13 |
1.5 |
2.9 |
$41.46 |
|
Observation |
||||||
|
. Based on the above comparisons the private equity groups are likely telling the institutional investors |
||||||
|
'We can manage Hertz better than Ford did. We are more focused and you can trust us' |
||||||
|
. If Fortress Funds (Gatehouse, etc) had been the buyer… |
||||||
|
Summary |
||||||
|
. Big international brand |
||||||
|
. Private equity bought from Ford for book value ($2.3bb) December 21, 2005 |
||||||
|
. IPO set at 2.3 times book (130% over purchase price) |
||||||
|
. Post-IPO private equity will have returned all investment except $656mm |
||||||
|
. After 4 1/2 months private equity money will be worth $3.9 billion, a 650% short term profit |
||||||
|
Conclusion |
||||||
|
. Ford (the prior owner) was desperate to sell by the end of 2005 |
||||||
|
. This is the biggest private equity/leverage buyout short term profit flip in history |
||||||
|
. The IPO price appears high, especially because interest charges now consume 11% of revenue, up from 6% pre-buyout |
||||||
|
Business |
||||||
|
. Owns what HTZ believes is the largest worldwide general use car rental brand and one of the |
||||||
|
largest equipment rental businesses in the United States, both based on revenues. |
||||||
|
. HTX and its independent licensees and associates accept reservations for car rentals at |
||||||
|
approximately 7,600 locations in approximately 145 countries. |
||||||
|
. The only car rental company that has an extensive network of company-operated rental locations |
||||||
|
both in the United States and in all major European markets. |
||||||
|
. HTZ and its predecessors have been in the car rental business since 1918 and in the equipment |
||||||
|
rental business since 1965. |
||||||
|
The Transactions -650% return in four months |
||||||
|
. On June 30, 2006 HTZ acquired 'old Hertz' for equity contributions from three sponsors totaling |
||||||
|
$2.295 billion, of which $1.437 will have been repaid in dividends post-IPO |
||||||
|
. Plus $92 million in fees ($25mm each for the initial transactions, $5mm each for terminating the |
||||||
|
consulting relationship, $2.25mm for other fees) |
||||||
|
. Post-IPO the three sponsors will have about $656 million in remaining equity with an IPO mid |
||||||
|
point price range value of $3.9 billion |
||||||
|
Sponsors |
||||||
|
. Clayton, Dubilier & Rice |
||||||
|
. The Carlyle Group |
||||||
|
. Merrill Lynch Global Private Equity |
||||||
|
Relationship with Ford |
||||||
|
. Prior to the Acquisition, Ford, through its wholly owned subsidiary Ford Holdings, was Hertz's |
||||||
|
only stockholder. |
||||||
|
. Pre-IPO, investment funds associated with or designated by the Sponsors own 99% of Hertz |
||||||
|
Holdings' outstanding common stock, with the remainder held by members of management |
||||||
|
. Post-IPO, the funds associated with or designated by the Sponsors will hold 72% of outstanding |
||||||
|
common stock. |
||||||
|
Dividend policy |
||||||
|
. HTZ's ability to pay dividends to holders of common stock is limited as a practical matter by |
||||||
|
Hertz's Senior Credit Facilities, Hertz's Fleet Debt Facilities and the indentures governing Hertz's |
||||||
|
Senior Notes and Senior Subordinated Notes, insofar as HTZ may seek to pay dividends out of |
||||||
|
funds made available to it by Hertz and/or its subsidiaries, |
||||||
|
. Because Hertz's debt facilities directly or indirectly restrict Hertz's ability to pay dividends or |
||||||
|
make loans to HTZ. |
||||||
|
Use of $1.437 billion in IPO proceeds |
||||||
|
. Repay loan that was used for cash dividend of $999.2 million on June 30, 2006 |
||||||
|
. Of this amount, approximately $991.4 million, or over 99%, was paid to investment funds |
||||||
|
associated with or designated by the Sponsors on a pro rata basis according to their ownership of |
||||||
|
HTZ common stock. |
||||||
|
. Expects to pay an additional $427mm to pre-IPO shareholders of record from IPO proceeds |
||||||
|
========================================================== |
||||||
|
KBR |
KBR, C+, 7 |
|||||
|
spin-off from Halliburton |
Post-IPO shrs:166mm |
|||||
|
Houston, TX |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
Sept 05* |
Sept 06* |
IPO Mkt |
|
Rev ($mm) |
$8,813 |
$11,906 |
$10,146 |
$7,422 |
$7,124 |
Cap (mm) |
|
Profit (loss) ($mm)* |
-$142 |
-$314 |
$210 |
$162 |
$38 |
$2,648 |
|
Profit (loss) % |
-2% |
-3% |
2% |
2% |
1% |
@$16 |
|
Backlog ($mm)* |
$8,600 |
$7,100 |
$10,600 |
$15,000 |
||
|
* continuing operations |
*for the nine months ended Sept 30 |
|||||
|
VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
|
Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
|
|
KBR (KBR) |
$2,648 |
0.3 |
52 |
1.4 |
1.7 |
17% |
|
SCORECARD |
Mgt |
Market |
Market Do- |
Proprie- |
Total |
|
|
1-5, 5 is high |
Growth |
mination |
tary |
rating |
||
|
20 is perfect |
2 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
7 |
|
|
Compare & contrast |
||||||
|
VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price |
|
Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
15-Nov |
|
|
KBR (KBR) |
$2,648 |
0.3 |
52 |
1.4 |
1.7 |
|
|
Fluor Corporation (FLR) |
$7,400 |
0.5 |
30 |
4.1 |
4.6 |
$84.08 |
|
Jacobs Engineering (JEC) |
$4,770 |
0.6 |
24 |
3.4 |
5.6 |
$81.13 |
|
Halliburton Co. (HAL) |
$33,830 |
1.8 |
16 |
4.8 |
5.4 |
$33.64 |
|
Backlog, Sept 30, 2006 |
($bb) |
|||||
|
KBR (KBR) |
$15.0 |
|||||
|
Fluor Corporation (FLR) |
$19.8 |
|||||
|
Jacobs Engineering (JEC) |
$9.8 |
|||||
|
Update note, November 15 |
||||||
|
U.K. to Complete KBR Review This Month |
||||||
|
. KBR said the British government warned that if it determined a stand-alone KBR didn't have enough |
||||||
|
financial strength, it could retake the shipyard or allow the minority owners to buy out KBR's 51% stake. |
||||||
|
. UK Ministry of Defence shipyard segment accounted for 8.8% of revenue for the nine months ended Sept 30, 2006 |
||||||
|
. See below under 'Risks', G&I segment |
||||||
|
Summary |
||||||
|
. Engineering, construction spinoff from businesses acquired by Halliburton (NYSE:HAL) $32bb market cap |
||||||
|
. Backlog increasing, although Iraq work expected to decline |
||||||
|
. Halliburton intends to sell all remaining shares |
||||||
|
Business |
||||||
|
. Leading global engineering, construction and services company supporting the energy, |
||||||
|
petrochemicals, government services and civil infrastructure sectors. |
||||||
|
. Largest U.S.-based international contractor according to Engineering News-Record based on |
||||||
|
fiscal 2005 construction revenue from projects outside a company's home country. |
||||||
|
. Engineering News-Record also ranks KBR as the fourth largest U.S.-based contractor overall |
||||||
|
based on fiscal 2005 construction revenue. |
||||||
|
History |
||||||
|
KBR traces its history and culture to two businesses: The M.W. Kellogg Company (Kellogg) and |
||||||
|
Brown & Root, Inc. (Brown & Root). |
||||||
|
. Kellogg dates back to a pipe fabrication business which was founded in New York in 1901 and |
||||||
|
has been creating technology for petroleum refining and petrochemicals processing since 1919 |
||||||
|
. Brown & Root was founded in Houston, Texas in 1919 and built the world's first offshore |
||||||
|
platform in 1947. |
||||||
|
. Brown & Root was acquired by Halliburton in 1962 and Kellogg was acquired by Halliburton in |
||||||
|
1998 through its merger with Dresser Industrie |
||||||
|
Asbestos and Silica Settlement and Prepackaged Chapter 11 Proceeding and Completion |
||||||
|
. In December 2003, six subsidiaries (and two other entities that are subsidiaries of |
||||||
|
Halliburton) sought Chapter 11 protection to discharge current and future asbestos and silica |
||||||
|
personal injury claims and demands. |
||||||
|
. The order confirming the Chapter 11 plan of reorganization became final and nonappealable on |
||||||
|
December 31, 2004, and the plan of reorganization became effective in January 2005. |
||||||
|
. Pursuant to the plan of reorganization and the order confirming the plan, a permanent injunction |
||||||
|
has been issued enjoining the prosecution of asbestos and silica personal injury claims and |
||||||
|
demands against our subsidiaries and our affiliates. |
||||||
|
Relationship With Halliburton |
||||||
|
. Currently a wholly owned subsidiary of Halliburton. |
||||||
|
. In addition to owning KBR, Halliburton is one of the world's largest energy services companies. |
||||||
|
. Upon the closing of this offering, Halliburton will own 83% of KBR's outstanding common |
||||||
|
stock, or 81% if the underwriters exercise their over-allotment option in full, and will continue to |
||||||
|
be controlled by Halliburton. |
||||||
|
. Halliburton has advised KBR that it intends to dispose of KBR's common stock that it owns |
||||||
|
following this offering as expeditiously as possible through a tax-free distribution to Halliburton's |
||||||
|
stockholders |
||||||
|
Markets |
||||||
|
. A leader in many of the growing end-markets that serves, particularly gas monetization, having |
||||||
|
designed and constructed, alone or with joint venture partners, more than half of the world's |
||||||
|
operating liquefied natural gas (LNG) production capacity over the past 30 years. |
||||||
|
. In addition, KBR is one of the ten largest government defense contractors worldwide according |
||||||
|
to a Defense News ranking based on fiscal 2005 revenue and, accordingly, KBR believes it is the |
||||||
|
world's largest government defense services provider. |
||||||
|
Two business segments |
||||||
|
Energy and Chemicals (E&C) and |
||||||
|
. Provides a wide range of engineering, procurement, construction, facility commissioning and |
||||||
|
start-up (EPC-CS) services, as well as program and project management, consulting and |
||||||
|
technology services for energy and petrochemical projects. |
||||||
|
. Provides these services to a diverse customer base, including international and national oil and |
||||||
|
gas companies, independent refiners, petrochemical producers, and fertilizer producers. |
||||||
|
. Expertise includes onshore oil and gas production facilities, offshore oil and gas production |
||||||
|
facilities (which KBR refers to collectively as its offshore projects), pipelines, LNG and gas-to |
||||||
|
liquids (GTL) gas monetization facilities (which KBR refers to collectively as its gas monetization |
||||||
|
projects), refineries, petrochemical plants and synthesis gas (Syngas). |
||||||
|
. Currently benefiting from increased capital expenditures by petroleum and petrochemicals |
||||||
|
customer base and expect demand for services to continue to increase with the growth in world |
||||||
|
energy consumption. |
||||||
|
Government and Infrastructure (G&I), 65% of 2005 revenue |
||||||
|
. Provides program and project management, contingency logistics, operations and maintenance, |
||||||
|
construction management, engineering, and other services to military and civilian branches of |
||||||
|
domestic and foreign governments and private customers worldwide. |
||||||
|
. Delivers on-demand support services across the full military mission cycle from contingency |
||||||
|
logistics and field support to operations and maintenance on military bases. |
||||||
|
. A significant portion of the G&I segment's current operations relate to the support of United |
||||||
|
States government operations in the Middle East, which KBR refers to as its Middle East |
||||||
|
operations. |
||||||
|
. Also currently is the majority owner of Devonport Management Limited (DML), which owns |
||||||
|
and operates Western Europe's largest naval dockyard complex. KBR's DML shipyard operations |
||||||
|
are primarily engaged in refueling nuclear submarines and performing maintenance on surface |
||||||
|
vessels for the U.K. Ministry of Defence as well as limited commercial projects. |
||||||
|
. The G&I segment operates in diverse sectors of the civil infrastructure market, including |
||||||
|
transportation, waste and water treatment, and facilities maintenance. |
||||||
|
. KBR expects the heightened focus on global security, military operations and major military |
||||||
|
force realignments, as well as global growth in government outsourcing, to enhance demand for |
||||||
|
KBR's services. |
||||||
|
Backlog |
||||||
|
From continuing operations |
||||||
|
Sept 30, 2006 --$15 billion; Dec 2005--$10.6bb; Dec 2004--$7.1bb; Dec 2003--$8.6bb |
||||||
|
Risks |
||||||
|
G&I segments |
||||||
|
o The current level of government services being provided in the Middle East will not likely |
||||||
|
continue for an extended period of time, and the current rate of spending has decreased |
||||||
|
substantially compared to 2005 and 2004. |
||||||
|
. Government services revenue related to Iraq under our LogCAP III and other contracts totaled |
||||||
|
$3.6 billion in the nine months ended September 30, 2006, $5.4 billion in 2005, $7.1 billion in |
||||||
|
2004 and $3.5 billion in 2003. |
||||||
|
. KBR expects the volume of work under the LogCAP III contract to continue to decline as the |
||||||
|
customer scales back the amount of services KBR provides under this contract, and KBR expects |
||||||
|
to complete all open task orders under the LogCAP III contract during 2007. |
||||||
|
. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) has also announced that it will solicit competitive bids |
||||||
|
for a new multiple service provider LogCAP IV contract to replace the current LogCAP III |
||||||
|
contract, under which KBR is the sole provider. |
||||||
|
. KBR expects the volume of work under the MoD contract with KBR's DML joint venture to refit |
||||||
|
and refuel the MoD's nuclear submarine fleet to decline in 2009 and 2010 as KBR completes this |
||||||
|
round of refueling of the current fleet. The MoD also has the right at any time to assume control of |
||||||
|
the dockyard operated by DML if the MoD deems it to be in the essential security interests of the |
||||||
|
United Kingdom |
||||||
|
E&C segment |
||||||
|
Depends on demand and capital spending by oil and natural gas companies for KBR's services, |
||||||
|
which is directly affected by trends in oil and gas prices and other factors affecting customers. |
||||||
|
Competition and Scope of Global Operations |
||||||
|
. Conducts business in over 45 countries. |
||||||
|
. Operations in countries other than the United States accounted for 87% of consolidated revenue |
||||||
|
during 2005 and 90% of consolidated revenue during 2004. |
||||||
|
. Based on the location of services provided, 50% of consolidated revenue in 2005 and 45% in |
||||||
|
2004 was from operations in Iraq, primarily related to work for the United States government |
||||||
|
. Revenue from operations in Iraq represented 27% of consolidated revenue in 2003. |
||||||
|
. Also, 8% of consolidated revenue during 2005 was from the United Kingdom. |
||||||
|
Customers |
||||||
|
. Revenue from the U.S. government, resulting primarily from work performed in the Middle East |
||||||
|
by KBR's G&I segment, represented 65% of 2005 consolidated revenue, 67% of 2004 |
||||||
|
consolidated revenue, and 47% of 2003 consolidated revenue. |
||||||
|
. No other customer represented more than 10% of consolidated revenue in any of these periods |
||||||
|
Use of $416mm in IPO proceeds |
||||||
|
Repay debt incurred under subordinated intercompany notes |
||||||
|
. Remaining net proceeds will be used for general business purposes |
||||||
|
At September 30, 2006, the aggregate principal amount owed under the subordinated |
||||||
|
intercompany notes was $774 million, and in October 2006, KBR repaid $324 million in |
||||||
|
aggregate principal amount of this indebtedness. |
||||||
|
================================================================= |
||||||
|
NYMEX Holdings |
NMX, B, 9 |
|||||
|
futures exchange and clearinghouse |
Post-IPO shrs:86.5mm |
|||||
|
New York, NY |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
Sept 05* |
Sept 06* |
IPO Mkt |
|
Rev ($mm) |
$188 |
$241 |
$347 |
$253 |
$382 |
Cap (mm) |
|
Profit (loss) ($mm) |
$9 |
$27 |
$71 |
$51 |
$113 |
$4,829 |
|
Profit (loss) % |
5% |
11% |
20% |
20% |
29% |
@$50 |
|
Ave revenue per contract |
$0.91 |
$1.14 |
$1.29 |
$1.23 |
$1.41 |
|
|
Total volume (mm) (1) |
144 |
169 |
215 |
|||
|
(1) Total volume for trading and clearing, including off-exchange |
||||||
|
*for the nine months ended Sept 30 |
||||||
|
2006 includes $11mm of one time charges, pretax |
||||||
|
One time charges to the income statemement |
$11 |
|||||
|
Added income with a 45% tax rate (NMX's current rate) |
$6.05 |
|||||
|
Income with the above adjustment |
$119 |
|||||
|
+41.6% in daily contracts |
||||||
|
Daily average contracts traded rose to 1,323,527 in the third quarter of 2006, |
||||||
|
a 41.6% increase over the 934,472 daily average contracts traded during the same period in 2005. |
||||||
|
Segment compare & contrast -- ratios |
||||||
|
VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price |
|
Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
Nov 14 |
|
|
NYMEX Holdgs (NMX) |
$4,829 |
9.5 |
30 |
16.9 |
16.7 |
|
|
CBOT Holdings BOT |
$8,080 |
13 |
48 |
17.6 |
16.0 |
$146.65 |
|
Chicago Merc (CME) |
$17,890 |
15 |
45 |
13.6 |
13.6 |
$495.01 |
|
InterconExchng (ICE) |
$5,580 |
19 |
44 |
17.6 |
23.7 |
$83.85 |
|
Based on annualizing Sept 30 nine months |
||||||
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
||||||
|
Segment compare & contrast -- revenue & earnings |
||||||
|
Chicago Mercantile Exchange Holdings Inc. |
Price |
Market cap |
||||
|
CME |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
9mos Sept |
14-Nov |
cap ($mm) |
|
Rev ($mm) |
$358 |
$551 |
$919 |
$808 |
$513.50 |
$17,890 |
|
Income ($mm) |
$122 |
$220 |
$307 |
$304 |
P/E ratio |
|
|
Net income % |
34.1% |
39.9% |
33.4% |
38% |
44 |
|
|
CBOT Holdings Inc. |
||||||
|
BOT |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
9mos Sept |
Market cap |
|
|
Rev ($mm) |
$381 |
$380 |
$466 |
$465 |
$152.89 |
$8,080 |
|
Income ($mm) |
$31 |
$42 |
$76 |
$127 |
P/E ratio |
|
|
Net income % |
8.1% |
11.1% |
16.3% |
27% |
48 |
|
|
InterContinental Exchange, Inc. |
||||||
|
ICE |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
9mos Sept |
Market cap |
|
|
Rev ($mm) |
$94 |
$108 |
$156 |
$219 |
$97.03 |
$5,580 |
|
Income ($mm) |
$13 |
$22 |
$40 |
$94 |
P/E ratio |
|
|
Net income % |
13.8% |
20.4% |
25.6% |
43% |
44 |
|
|
Segment IPO pricing & history |
Date |
IPO |
Nov 14 |
% change |
||
|
price |
price |
|||||
|
Chicago Merc (CME) |
Dec 6 2002 |
$35.00 |
$513.50 |
1467% |
||
|
CBOT (BOT) |
Oct 18 2005 |
$54.00 |
$152.89 |
283% |
||
|
Intercontintal Exchg (ICE) |
Nov 15 2005 |
$26.00 |
$97.03 |
373% |
||
|
Note: CBOT is in the process of being acquired by CME |
||||||
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
||||||
|
VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
|
Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
|
|
NYMEX Holdgs (NMX) |
$4,829 |
9.5 |
30 |
16.9 |
16.7 |
7% |
|
SCORECARD |
Mgt |
Market |
Market Do- |
Proprie- |
Total |
|
|
1-5, 5 is high |
Growth |
mination |
tary |
rating |
||
|
20 is perfect |
2 |
3 |
3 |
1 |
9 |
|
|
Summary |
||||||
|
Major company IPO'ing at a significant P/E discount to |
||||||
|
. CBOT Holdings BOT |
||||||
|
. Chicago Merc (CME) |
||||||
|
. InterconExchng (ICE) |
||||||
|
See above 'compare & contrast--ratios' |
||||||
|
Business |
||||||
|
. Provides customers with a variety of means to trade and clear energy and metals futures and |
||||||
|
options products. In 2005, clearing and transaction fees accounted for 80.1% of net revenues and |
||||||
|
market data fees accounted for 12.8% of net revenues |
||||||
|
. Largest physical commodity-based futures exchange and clearinghouse in the world. Third |
||||||
|
largest futures exchange in the United States measured by 2005 contract volume. |
||||||
|
. In 2005, was the world's largest exchange for the trading of energy futures and options contracts |
||||||
|
and 63% of all globally listed energy futures and options contracts were traded on NMX's |
||||||
|
Exchange. |
||||||
|
. Focus on light sweet crude oil, precious metals, gold |
||||||
|
History |
||||||
|
. Founded in 1872 and introduced the heating oil contract, which has been one of the world's most |
||||||
|
successful energy futures contracts since its inception in 1978. |
||||||
|
. Between 1981 and 1996, contracts followed for gasoline, crude oil, natural gas, propane and |
||||||
|
electricity. |
||||||
|
. In 1994, acquired COMEX, which was founded in 1933. |
||||||
|
. On November 17, 2000, as a result of a merger and demutualization, the New York Mercantile |
||||||
|
Exchange converted from a New York not-for-profit membership association into a Delaware for |
||||||
|
profit non-stock corporation and became a subsidiary of NYMEX Holdings, a Delaware for-profit |
||||||
|
stock corporation. |
||||||
|
Industry trends, 2000 to 2005 -- compound annual growth rates |
||||||
|
. 30.3% -- based on data from the Futures Industry Association, the total number of futures and |
||||||
|
options contracts, excluding futures, options and options on futures of individual equities, traded |
||||||
|
worldwide on reporting derivatives exchanges grew from approximately 2.0 billion in 2000 to |
||||||
|
approximately 7.5 billion in 2005, representing a compound annual growth rate of 30.3%. |
||||||
|
. 28% -- in the United States, the total number of futures and options contracts, excluding futures, |
||||||
|
options and options on futures of individual equities, traded on reporting derivatives exchanges |
||||||
|
increased from approximately 648 million in 2000 to approximately 2.2 billion in 2005, |
||||||
|
representing a compound annual growth rate of 28.0%. |
||||||
|
. 12.2% -- energy futures and options contracts traded worldwide on reporting derivatives |
||||||
|
exchanges increased from approximately 155 million in 2000 to approximately 275 million in |
||||||
|
Market growth drivers |
||||||
|
o increased market acceptance of the value of derivatives as risk management tools; |
||||||
|
o greater access to futures and options markets through technological innovation; |
||||||
|
o increased price fluctuation in crude oil, partially created by geopolitical conditions in oil |
||||||
|
producing countries and increased demand in emerging economies; |
||||||
|
o increased price fluctuation in natural gas, partially created by weather conditions and increased |
||||||
|
demand in emerging economies; |
||||||
|
o increased demand for commodities as a distinct asset class for portfolio diversification; |
||||||
|
o increased participation in energy markets by financial institutions; |
||||||
|
o increased awareness of the ability to obtain or hedge market exposure through the use of futures |
||||||
|
and options contracts; and |
||||||
|
o changes in the regulatory environment of energy markets around the world, particularly |
||||||
|
electricity and natural gas. |
||||||
|
Commodity-based futures exchange & clearinghouse |
||||||
|
Light sweet crude oil |
||||||
|
77.2 million contracts of NMX's light sweet crude oil futures and options products traded and |
||||||
|
cleared in 2005, making light sweet crude oil the largest and most liquid global benchmark for |
||||||
|
energy futures and options. |
||||||
|
Precious metals |
||||||
|
Although certain other exchanges offer metals contracts of smaller sizes, in 2005, NMX was also |
||||||
|
the largest exchange in the world for the trading and clearing of precious metals based on product |
||||||
|
volume, as calculated by aggregating contracts of smaller sizes into contracts of comparable sizes |
||||||
|
to those traded NMX's Exchange, with 30.8 million contracts traded and cleared. |
||||||
|
Gold futures |
||||||
|
NMX's gold futures contract is the most liquid precious metals futures contract in the world with |
||||||
|
19.6 million contracts traded and cleared in 2005 based on product volume, as calculated by |
||||||
|
aggregating contracts of smaller sizes into contracts of comparable sizes to those trade on NMX's |
||||||
|
Exchange. |
||||||
|
Two operating subsidiaries |
||||||
|
. New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. referred to as NYMEX Exchange or NYMEX Division. |
||||||
|
Customers trade primarily energy futures and options contracts, including contracts for crude oil, |
||||||
|
unleaded gasoline, heating oil and natural gas |
||||||
|
. Commodity Exchange, Inc. referred to as COMEX or COMEX Division. Customers trade |
||||||
|
metals futures and options contracts, including contracts for gold, silver, copper and aluminum. |
||||||
|
CME technology service agreement |
||||||
|
Migration to Chicago Mercantile trading platform |
||||||
|
. In April 2006, NMX entered into a technology services agreement with Chicago Mercantile |
||||||
|
Exchange Inc., or CME, to trade NMX products on CME Globex™ electronic trading platform |
||||||
|
. On June 11, 2006 for trade date June 12, 2006, NMX cash-settled energy futures contracts for all |
||||||
|
listed months became available for electronic trading during open outcry hours, which is |
||||||
|
commonly referred to as side-by-side trading. NYMEX miNY™ futures contracts, which are |
||||||
|
smaller versions of our normal NYMEX Division futures contracts, migrated to CME Globex |
||||||
|
electronic trading platform on that date as well. |
||||||
|
. On August 6, 2006 for trade date August 7, 2006 NMX migrated its after-hours energy, platinum |
||||||
|
and palladium futures contracts that were previously traded electronically on NYMEX ACCESS® |
||||||
|
onto CME Globex'x electronic trading platform |
||||||
|
. On the same day, NMX began offering all NYMEX miNY™ futures contracts listed on CME |
||||||
|
Globex electronic trading platform for all months corresponding with the underlying full-sized |
||||||
|
futures contracts and spread trading for all full-sized, physically delivered contracts during after |
||||||
|
hours trading. |
||||||
|
. On September 4, 2006 for trade date September 5, 2006, NMX began offering side-by-side |
||||||
|
electronic trading of physically delivered energy futures contracts. |
||||||
|
. Although, on October 17, 2006, CME announced that they had entered into a merger agreement |
||||||
|
with the Board of Trade of the City of Chicago ("CBOT"), pursuant to which CBOT will be |
||||||
|
acquired by CME, this will not affect NMX's ability to trade on CME Globex electronic trading |
||||||
|
platform. |
||||||
|
. NMX anticipates that no later than the fourth quarter of 2006 it will begin migrating after-hours |
||||||
|
electronic trading of our metals futures and options contracts that are currently traded |
||||||
|
electronically on NYMEX ACCESS® onto CME Globex electronic trading platform. |
||||||
|
Growth strategies |
||||||
|
. Increased market acceptance and awareness of derivatives, increased price volatility in key |
||||||
|
commodities, technology advances and reduced regulatory barriers offer significant opportunities |
||||||
|
for expanding derivative markets. |
||||||
|
. NMX believes that we can take advantage of these trends and build upon our competitive |
||||||
|
strengths by implementing the following strategies: |
||||||
|
Expand distribution |
||||||
|
Continue to grow the core businesses of energy and metals futures and options by increasing the |
||||||
|
ease with which customers can access NMX's markets. |
||||||
|
Develop new products |
||||||
|
. Expand the range of products, both by commodity type and structure. |
||||||
|
. Over the past four years, have increased the number of products offers from 27 to 302 |
||||||
|
Expand service offerings, such as market data and off-exchange clearing |
||||||
|
. Intends to focus on increasing the use of the market data collected from products traded on |
||||||
|
NMX's Exchange. |
||||||
|
. In addition to incorporating this data into the design of new products, NMX plans to provide |
||||||
|
enhanced services to customers who utilize this data |
||||||
|
Enhance technology platform |
||||||
|
Continue to invest in and improve the technology that supports clearing, market information, the |
||||||
|
NMX's trading floor and the business in general |
||||||
|
Opportunistically pursue strategic alliances and acquisitions |
||||||
|
Already has developed alliances with other international exchanges, such as the Tokyo |
||||||
|
Commodity Exchange, Tatweer Dubai LLC, a member of Dubai Holding L.L.C., in order to |
||||||
|
establish the Dubai Mercantile Exchange Limited ("DME"), and the Multi Commodity Exchange |
||||||
|
of India Ltd., which enable those exchanges to offer NMX products to their respective customers. |
||||||
|
Attract new market participants |
||||||
|
. In recent years, NMX's participant base has expanded and diversified due to the emergence of |
||||||
|
new participants in the energy commodities markets. |
||||||
|
. These new participants range from producers and consumers of commodities to financial services |
||||||
|
companies, such as investment banks, hedge funds, proprietary trading firms and asset managers |
||||||
|
that are increasingly pursuing hedging, trading and risk management strategies within the energy |
||||||
|
sector. |
||||||
|
. Many of these participants have been attracted to the energy markets in part due to the |
||||||
|
availability of electronic trading |
||||||
|
Competition |
||||||
|
. The top 15 futures exchanges in order of volume of futures and options on futures contracts |
||||||
|
traded for the year ended December 31, 2005 based on publicly reported data are: CME, Eurex, |
||||||
|
CBOT, Euronext.liffe, Bolsa de Mercadorias & Futuros, NYMEX, National Stock Exchange of |
||||||
|
India, Mexican Derivatives Exchange, Dalian Commodity Exchange, London Metal Exchange, |
||||||
|
Tokyo Commodity Exchange, Sydney Futures Exchange, Korea Stock and Exchange, ICE and |
||||||
|
SAFEX. |
||||||
|
. Based on this data, in the United States, the top three futures exchanges are CME, CBOT, |
||||||
|
NYMEX. |
||||||
|
Dividend policy |
||||||
|
The board of directors will consider future dividends on a discretionary basis, based on continuing |
||||||
|
profitability and the Company's strategic and operating needs. |
||||||
|
Largest stockholder |
||||||
|
. General Atlantic, a global private equity firm, will own 9.4% post-IPO |
||||||
|
. Closing date of the General Atlantic transaction was March 14, 2006 |
||||||
|
Recent private stock sales |
||||||
|
. Since March 14, 2006, the closing date of the General Atlantic transaction (see largest |
||||||
|
stockholder, below) NMX's common stock and the Class A memberships are independently |
||||||
|
transferable to a limited number of eligible transferees. At present, there is no established trading |
||||||
|
market for the common stock. None of the common stock is listed on any exchange or automated |
||||||
|
quotation system |
||||||
|
. For the month of October 2006 the stock has traded between $42 and $62 |
||||||
|
Use of $220mm in IPO proceeds from sale of 4.9mm shares |
||||||
|
(shareholders intend to sell 1.1mm shares) |
||||||
|
. No specific allocations for the use of IPO proceeds from this offering, other than a payment of |
||||||
|
$10 million in the aggregate to the owners of COMEX Division memberships |
||||||
|
. Intends to use the net proceeds primarily for general corporate purposes, capital expenditures and |
||||||
|
working capital. |
||||||
|
. May also may use a portion of the proceeds to acquire or invest in businesses, technologies, |
||||||
|
products or services, although no specific acquisitions are planned and no portion of the net |
||||||
|
proceeds has been allocated for any acquisition |
||||||
|
========================================================= |
||||||
|
Venoco (VQ) |
VQ, C, 7 |
|||||
|
oil-natural gas development |
Post-IPO shrs:43mm |
|||||
|
Denver, CO |
2005 |
June 06* |
IPO Mkt |
|||
|
Rev ($mm) |
proforma with |
$221 |
$132 |
Cap (mm) |
||
|
Production expense |
recent acquisition |
$76 |
$42 |
$854 |
||
|
Production exp ratio |
34% |
32% |
@$20 |
|||
|
Profit (loss) ($mm) |
$2.2 |
$5.5 |
||||
|
Profit (loss) % |
1.0% |
4.2% |
||||
|
Results include unrealized derivative losses |
$35 |
$15 |
||||
|
*for the six months ended June 30 |
||||||
|
VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
|
Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
|
|
Venoco (VQ) |
$854 |
3.2 |
78 |
4.5 |
4.5 |
29% |
|
SCORECARD |
Mgt |
Market |
Market Do- |
Proprie- |
Total |
|
|
1-5, 5 is high |
Growth |
mination |
tary |
rating |
||
|
20 is perfect |
2 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
7 |
|
|
Note: graded C because effect of lower energy prices not yet reflected in the income statement |
||||||
|
Summary |
||||||
|
. VQ formed through recent acquisitions |
||||||
|
. Financials reflect higher energy prices than current prices |
||||||
|
. Derivative losses contribute to high P/E ratio |
||||||
|
Business |
||||||
|
. Acquisition, exploration, exploitation and development of oil and natural gas properties. |
||||||
|
. Since the change in senior management that occurred in June 2004, has returned to historical |
||||||
|
strategy of devoting substantial resources to exploration, exploitation and development projects on |
||||||
|
properties. |
||||||
|
. Pursuit of this strategy has led to increases in oil and natural gas production. Average net |
||||||
|
production for the second quarter of 2006 was 17,114 BOE/d, compared to 11,215 BOE/d for the |
||||||
|
first quarter of 2006 and 11,555 BOE/d for 2005 as a whole. |
||||||
|
Current focus |
||||||
|
. Since founding in 1992, core areas of focus have been offshore and onshore California. |
||||||
|
. VQ believes that California's numerous large oil and natural gas fields and limited number of |
||||||
|
well capitalized, independent operators present us with an attractive niche market opportunity. |
||||||
|
. Principal properties are located offshore southern California, onshore in California's Sacramento |
||||||
|
Basin and along the Gulf Coast of Texas, and are characterized by long reserve lives, predictable |
||||||
|
production profiles and substantial opportunities for further exploitation and development, |
||||||
|
including numerous relatively low risk drilling locations. |
||||||
|
. VQ has grown to become one of the largest independent oil and natural gas companies in |
||||||
|
California based on production volumes. |
||||||
|
TexCal acquisition |
||||||
|
. In furtherance of the growth strategy, we acquired TexCal for $456 million in cash on March 31, |
||||||
|
'2006. |
||||||
|
. As a result of the transaction, VQ has strengthened its position as the most active driller in the |
||||||
|
Sacramento Basin, a principal growth area for VQ, and has reestablished its presence in Texas. |
||||||
|
. Second quarter 2006 results include the effect of the TexCal transaction. |
||||||
|
. Expects production to continue to increase in both the third and fourth quarters of 2006 relative |
||||||
|
to the same periods in 2005, and to increase quarter to quarter throughout 2007 |
||||||
|
Proved reserves up |
||||||
|
. Proved reserves as of July 31, 2006 were 94.5 MMBOE, representing a 20% increase from pro |
||||||
|
forma proved reserves of 79.0 MMBOE as of December 31, 2005 |
||||||
|
. VQ believes that pursuit of its business strategy will allow the company to continue to increase |
||||||
|
proved reserves (excluding the effect of future changes in commodity prices). |
||||||
|
Unrealized commodity derivative losses |
||||||
|
. Rising oil and natural gas prices created substantial unrealized commodity derivative losses in |
||||||
|
2005 and rising oil prices led to further unrealized commodity derivative losses in the first half of |
||||||
|
'2006. |
||||||
|
. These unrealized losses, which totaled $34.7 million in 2005 and $15 million in the first half of |
||||||
|
2006, resulted from mark-to-market valuations for non-highly effective or ineffective portions of |
||||||
|
VQ's derivative positions and are reflected as commodity derivative losses in VQ'sr income |
||||||
|
statement |
||||||
|
Competition |
||||||
|
. Includes Plains Exploration & Production Company and Berry Petroleum Company. |
||||||
|
. In particular, competes for property acquisitions and for the equipment and labor required to |
||||||
|
operate and develop properties |
||||||
|
Use of $184mm in IPO proceeds from sale of 10mm shares |
||||||
|
(shareholders intend to sell 2.5mm shares) |
||||||
|
Repay debt |
||||||
|
================================================================== |
||||||