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IPOdesktop.com Pre-IPO grading & scoring methodology |
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Pre-IPO analysis, grading & scoring -- updated Oct 6 |
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. Business Model Rating Criteria |
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A = high growth market, potential leader; B = more competitive market; C='public venture capital' |
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. Calculations |
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. IPO Price to annualized Sales Ratio -- (Price / Sales) |
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Numerator |
Denominator |
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IPO market capitalization… |
Annualized Sales (last six month's revenues times 2) |
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(post-IPO # of shares times mid-point of IPO price range) |
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. IPO Price to annualized Earnings (loss) -- (Price / Earnings) |
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Numerator |
Denominator |
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IPO market cap |
Annualized Earnings (loss) from the last quarter |
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========================================================================= |
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SEARCH BY COMPANY |
Use 'Edit, find on this page' to search for companies |
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for analysis |
scheduled below |
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========================================================================= |
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Summary ratios for the week of Oct 9 (IPOs not previously analyzed, scored & graded) |
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(P/E ratios based on annualizing recent results, see notes) |
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VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
|
Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
|
|
Acme Packet (APKT) |
$399 |
5.3 |
18 |
5.1 |
5.0 |
20% |
|
edge of network controllers: B-, 8 |
Post-IPO shrs:57mm |
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|
eHealth (EHTH) |
$231 |
4.3 |
43 |
4.0 |
3.9 |
24% |
|
online health insurance broker: B-,8 |
Post-IPO shrs:21mm |
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|
Ivivi Technologies (II) |
$65 |
75.0 |
-9 |
5.5 |
5.5 |
27% |
|
electro-therapeutic technologies: C, 6 |
Post-IPO shrs:9.3mm |
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SAIC Inc. (SAI) |
$5,614 |
0.7 |
14 |
4.9 |
12.9 |
19% |
|
scientific/technical services: C+, 7 |
Post-IPO shrs:401mm |
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UltraPetrol Bhms ULTR |
$392 |
2.5 |
26 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
45% |
|
Shipping -- dry bulk & liquids: C+, 6 |
Post-IPO shrs:28mm |
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========================================================================= |
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SEARCH BY COMPANY |
Use 'Edit, find on this page' to search for companies |
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for analysis |
scheduled below |
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========================================================================= |
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Acme Packet |
APKT, B-, 8 |
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edge of network controllers |
Post-IPO shrs:57mm |
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|
Burlington, MA |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
June 05* |
June 06* |
IPO Mkt |
|
Rev ($mm) |
$3 |
$16 |
$36 |
$17 |
$38 |
Cap (mm) |
|
Gross profit % |
73.3% |
63.8% |
75.0% |
71.2% |
78.9% |
$399 |
|
Income ($mm) |
-$8 |
-$7 |
$0.0 |
$0.1 |
$11 |
@$7 |
|
Net income %* |
-227.3% |
-43.8% |
-0.1% |
0.5% |
29.7% |
|
|
*for the six monthds ended June 30 |
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VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
|
Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
|
|
Acme Packet (APKT) |
$399 |
5.3 |
18 |
5.1 |
5.0 |
20% |
|
SCORECARD |
Mgt |
Market |
Market Do- |
Proprie- |
Total |
|
|
1-5, 5 is high |
Growth |
mination |
tary |
rating |
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|
20 is perfect |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
8 |
|
|
Scoring note: |
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. There is the risk APKT's product category will be eliminated as major competitors include |
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APKT features in expanded future product offerings |
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. Also, even though APKT leads its category today, we don't believe it can maintain its profit margin |
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|
Summary: |
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. Leading position in its market segment, high margin, profitable |
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|
. However, APKT may be a one trick pony, because the major competitors may subsume APKT's product categroy |
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|
Business |
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|
. The leading provider of session border controllers, or SBCs, that enable interactive |
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communications service providers to deliver secure and high quality interactive |
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communications—voice, video and other real-time multimedia sessions—across Internet Protocol, |
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or IP, network borders. |
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|
. APKT’s Net-Net products, which consist of hardware and proprietary software, serve as a central |
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element in unifying the separate IP networks that comprise wireline, wireless and cable networks |
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|
. Interactive communications service providers can use APLT’ products to create a premium |
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service tier that delivers next-generation interactive communications services, such as Voice over |
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IP, or VoIP, with the same quality assurance and security as they historically have offered for |
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voice services over their legacy telephone networks. |
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|
Network border deployment |
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. SBCs (session border controllers) are deployed at the borders between IP networks, such as |
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between two service providers or between a service provider and its business, residential or mobile |
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customers. |
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. SBCs are the only network element currently capable of integrating the control of signaling |
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messages and media flows. This capability complements the roles and functionality of routers, |
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|
softswitches and data firewalls that operate within the same network. |
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|
Shipments & deployment to service providers |
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|
. APKT began shipping Net-Net products in 2002. Since that time, more than 275 interactive |
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|
communications service providers in over 55 countries have purchased our products. |
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|
. The type of interactive communications service providers which have deployed APKT products |
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|
include cable service providers, wireline and mobile wireless telecommunications service |
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|
providers, information service providers and data transport service providers |
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|
. Sells products and support services through 30 distribution partners and our direct sales force. |
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|
Sales & distribution |
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|
. 300 service providers in over 55 countries have deployed APKT’s products. |
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|
. Products and support services are sold through a direct sales force and 30 distribution partners, |
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|
including many of the largest networking and telecommunications equipment vendors throughout |
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|
the world. |
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|
Major Risk |
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|
. If functionality similar to that offered by APKT’s SBCs (session border controllers) is added to |
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|
the existing network infrastructure elements, organizations may decide against adding SBCs to |
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|
their networks, which would significantly limit the market for standalone SBC systems. |
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|
. For an example, see ‘competition’ below -- Cisco (CSCO, market cap $145 billion) |
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|
. If for any reason the SBC market is not sustainable, results of APKT’s operations will materially be harmed |
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|
Competition |
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While APKT believes it is currently the market leader, APKT expects competition to persist and |
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intensify in the future as the SBC market grows and gains greater attention |
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. Primary competitors generally consist of start-up vendors, such as Newport Networks and |
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NexTone and more established network equipment and component companies, such as Ditech |
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|
Networks, through its acquisition of Jasomi, Juniper Networks, through its acquisition of Kagoor |
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|
and AudioCodes, through its pending acquisition of Netrake. |
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|
. APKT also competes with some of the companies with which it has distribution partnerships, |
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|
such as Sonus Networks. |
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. Cisco Systems recently announced a new product for the SBC market. |
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Intellectual property |
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. Has been issued four U.S. patents, allowed two U.S. patents and ten other U.S. provisional and |
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|
non-provisional patent applications are pending, as well as counterparts pending in other |
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|
jurisdictions around the world. |
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. Once a patent is "allowed" by the U.S. Patent Office, the patent will be issued upon completion |
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|
of certain administrative procedures. |
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Use of $50mm from sale of 8mm shares |
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(shareholders intent to sell 3.5mm shares) |
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Working capital and other general corporate purposes, which may include financing growth |
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|
(including payment of increased levels of expenditures), developing new products, and funding |
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|
capital expenditures, acquisitions and investments |
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===================================================================== |
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eHealth |
EHTH, B-, 8 |
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|
online health insurance broker |
Post-IPO shrs:21mm |
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|
New York, NY |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
June 05* |
June 06* |
IPO Mkt |
|
Rev ($mm) |
$22 |
$30 |
$42 |
$19 |
$27 |
Cap (mm) |
|
Income ($mm) |
-$3.1 |
-$3.3 |
$0.4 |
-$0.2 |
$2.7 |
$231 |
|
Net income %* |
-14% |
-11% |
1% |
-1% |
10% |
@$14 |
|
*for the six monthds ended June 30 |
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VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
|
Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
|
|
eHealth (EHTH) |
$231 |
4.3 |
43 |
4.0 |
3.9 |
24% |
|
SCORECARD |
Mgt |
Market |
Market Do- |
Proprie- |
Total |
|
|
1-5, 5 is high |
Growth |
mination |
tary |
rating |
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|
20 is perfect |
3 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
8 |
|
|
Summary |
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|
. Recently turned profitable, recurring commission income, leader in its category |
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|
. No specific plans for IPO proceeds -- that's a good sign |
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|
Business |
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|
. The leading online source (according to EHTH) of health insurance for individuals, families and |
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|
small businesses. |
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. Licensed to market and sell health insurance in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. |
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|
. Has built a scalable, proprietary ecommerce platform, and has developed partnerships with over |
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|
150 health insurance carriers, enabling EHTH to offer more than 5,000 health insurance products |
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|
online. |
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|
EHTH believes it is unique |
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|
. Is currently unaware of any other company that has the technology leadership, the number of |
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|
health insurance carrier relationships and the breadth of health insurance products that EHTH |
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possesses in the individual, family and small business health insurance market. |
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|
. The EHTH ecommerce platform can be accessed directly through the website addresses |
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|
(www.ehealth.com and www.ehealthinsurance.com) as well as through a broad network of |
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|
marketing partners. |
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|
Simplifies & streamlines |
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|
. EHTH believes it simplifies and streamlines the complex and traditionally paper-intensive health |
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|
insurance sales and purchasing process. |
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|
. As of June 30, 2006, had more than 325,000 members. |
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|
. EHTH defines a member as an individual currently covered by an insurance product for which |
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|
EHTH is entitled to receive compensation. |
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|
Competition |
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|
. Traditional local insurance agents. |
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|
. Health insurance carriers' "direct-to-member" sales |
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|
. Online agents |
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|
EHTH has entered into marketing partnerships with some online agencies and these agents refer |
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|
consumers to EHTH from states they do not service. |
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|
. National insurance brokers. |
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|
Some large agencies and financial services companies, such as Aon, Arthur J. Gallagher and |
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|
Willis, have partnered EHTH in order to offer EHTH's services to their customer and member |
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|
bases. |
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|
Use of $47mm in IPO proceeds from sale of 5mm shares |
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|
Currently has no specific plans for the use of the net proceeds of this offering |
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|
========================================================= |
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|
Ivivi Technologies |
II, C, 6 |
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|
electro-therapeutic technologies |
Post-IPO shrs:9.3mm |
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|
Northvale, NJ |
2005 |
2006 |
June 05* |
June 06* |
IPO Mkt |
|
|
Rev ($mm) |
$0.33 |
$0.79 |
$0.04 |
$0.22 |
Cap (mm) |
|
|
Income ($mm) |
-$2.6 |
-$10.7 |
-$1.3 |
-$1.9 |
$65 |
|
|
Net income %* |
-793% |
-1361% |
-3514% |
-876% |
@$7 |
|
|
March 31 fiscal year |
*for the three months ended June 30 |
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|
VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
|
Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
|
|
Ivivi Technologies (II) |
$65 |
75.0 |
-9 |
5.5 |
5.5 |
27% |
|
SCORECARD |
Mgt |
Market |
Market Do- |
Proprie- |
Total |
|
|
1-5, 5 is high |
Growth |
mination |
tary |
rating |
||
|
20 is perfect |
2 |
2 |
0 |
2 |
6 |
|
|
Summary |
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|
. Losing money, breakeven not in sight |
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|
. High cash burn rate indicated by -9 price/earnings ratio |
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|
. Price-to-book value seems quite high relative for II's category |
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|
Business |
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|
. Early-stage medical technology company focusing on designing, developing and |
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|
commercializing proprietary electrotherapeutic technologies. |
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|
. Electrotherapeutic technologies use electric or electromagnetic signals to help relieve pain, |
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|
swelling and inflammation and promote healing processes and tissue regeneration. |
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|
. Expects to incur additional operating losses, as well as negative cash flow from operations for the |
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|
foreseeable future |
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|
Focus |
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|
. Focused research and development activities on pulsed electromagnetic field, or PEMF |
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|
technology. |
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|
. Currently marketing products utilizing PEMF technology to the chronic wound and plastic and |
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|
reconstructive surgery markets. |
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|
. Is developing proprietary technology for other therapeutic medical markets. |
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|
Competition |
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|
. Diapulse Corp manufactures and markets devices that are deemed by the FDA to be substantially |
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|
equivalent to some of II's products |
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|
. Regenisis Biomedical manufactures and markets a device that is similar to II's first generation |
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|
device |
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|
. BioElectronics Corp develops and markets the ActiPatch™, a medical dermal patch that delivers |
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|
PEMF therapy to soft tissue injuries |
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|
. Kinetics Concepts, Inc. manufactures and markets negative pressure wound therapy devices in |
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|
the wound care market. |
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|
. A number of other manufacturers, both domestic and foreign, and distributors market shortwave |
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|
diathermy devices that produce deep tissue heat and that may be used for the treatment of certain |
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|
of the medical conditions for which II's products are used. |
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|
. II's products may also compete with pain relief drugs as well as pain relief medical devices, as |
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|
well as other forms of treatment, such as hyperbaric oxygen chambers, thermal therapies and |
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|
hydrotherapy. |
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|
Use of $15mm in IPO proceeds |
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|
. Research and development, $4mm |
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|
. Sales and marketing, $3.9mm |
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|
. Repayment of debt and related interest, $3.4mm |
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|
. General corporate purposes, including working capital and capital expenditures, $3.4mm |
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|
========================================================= |
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|
SAIC Inc. (SAI) |
SAI, C+, 7 |
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|
scientific/technical services |
Post-IPO shrs:401mm |
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|
San Diego |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
6msJuly05* |
6msJuly06* |
IPO Mkt |
|
Rev ($mm) |
$5,833 |
$7,187 |
$7,792 |
$3,798 |
$4,013 |
Cap (mm) |
|
Operating income % |
6.8% |
6.8% |
6.4% |
6.7% |
7.5% |
$5,614 |
|
Income ($mm)** |
$224.0 |
$272.0 |
$345.0 |
$140.0 |
$197.0 |
@$14 |
|
Net income % |
3.8% |
3.8% |
4.4% |
3.7% |
4.9% |
|
|
January 31 fiscal |
*for the six monthds ended July 31 |
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|
**from continuing operations |
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|
VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
|
Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
|
|
SAIC Inc. (SAI) |
$5,614 |
0.7 |
14 |
4.9 |
12.9 |
19% |
|
SCORECARD |
Mgt |
Market |
Market Do- |
Proprie- |
Total |
|
|
1-5, 5 is high |
Growth |
mination |
tary |
rating |
||
|
20 is perfect |
2 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
7 |
|
|
Compare & contrast |
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|
. Among contractors focused principally on U.S. Government IT and other technical services, SAI |
||||||
|
competes with the following public companies, that are not divisions of larger companies |
||||||
|
. Comparisons based on annualizing results for the six months ended June 30 |
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|
VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
|
Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
|
|
SAIC Inc. (SAI) |
$5,614 |
0.7 |
14 |
4.9 |
12.9 |
19% |
|
CACI Int'l (NYSE:CAI) |
$1,730 |
1.4 |
20 |
2.3 |
-19.9 |
$56.58 |
|
ManTech Int'l (MANT) |
$1,140 |
1.0 |
24 |
2.7 |
7.5 |
$34.03 |
|
SRA Int'l (NYSE: SRX) |
$1,640 |
1.4 |
26 |
3.1 |
4.9 |
$29.34 |
|
Other competitors include divisions of Boeing, General Dynamics, Lockheed, IBM & more |
||||||
|
Price history |
||||||
|
. SRX IPO'd May 24, 2002 at an adjusted price of $11, it is nearly $30 |
||||||
|
. MANT increased from $21 to $34 during the same period |
||||||
|
. CAI increased from $31 to $56 during the same period |
||||||
|
SAI is planning in IPO'ing at a discount relative to the three companies listed above. However, |
||||||
|
profit margins for the six months ended June 30, 2006 may not be sustainable -- the 2006 after tax |
||||||
|
margins were up 41% compared to 2005 |
||||||
|
Summary |
||||||
|
. Intends for make a dividend distribution to pre-IPO shareholders of up to $2.4 billion |
||||||
|
. Going into the IPO SAI had $2.4 billion in cash as of June 30, 2006 |
||||||
|
. 89% of revenue from the US government, 69% from the DoD |
||||||
|
. Government segment ‘internal growth’ revenue up only 2% for the six months ended July 31, 2006 |
||||||
|
. Funded backlog relatively flat comparing July 31 with January 31, see below |
||||||
|
. Trend to more competitive bidding by the US government may exert downward pressure on |
||||||
|
margins. |
||||||
|
Business |
||||||
|
. Provides consulting services primarily to the US government, which represented 89% of fiscal |
||||||
|
2006 revenue |
||||||
|
. Serves all branches of the U.S. military, agencies of the U.S. Department of Defense, the |
||||||
|
intelligence community, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security and other U.S. Government |
||||||
|
civil agencies |
||||||
|
. As of July 31, 2006, employed approximately 43,100 full and part-time employees. |
||||||
|
. The increase in demand for SAI’s services and solutions has been driven by priorities including |
||||||
|
the ongoing global war on terror and the transformation of the U.S. military. |
||||||
|
Six months ended July 31, 2006 |
||||||
|
.Consolidated revenues |
||||||
|
. Increased 6% during the six months ended July 31, 2006 compared to 2005. Two percentage |
||||||
|
points was internal, or non-acquisition, related growth. The acquisition of new businesses |
||||||
|
accounted for the remaining four percentage points of revenue growth. |
||||||
|
. Internal growth within the Government segment was relatively flat during the six months ended |
||||||
|
July 31, 2006. |
||||||
|
. Slower internal growth is primarily attributable to the wind down of certain large programs |
||||||
|
initiated in fiscal years 2004 and 2005 combined with fewer large replacement programs starting |
||||||
|
up, a decision by management to exit certain non-core business areas and the diversion of Federal |
||||||
|
funding toward the war efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan. |
||||||
|
Income from Continuing Operations. |
||||||
|
. Income from continuing operations increased $57 million, or 41%, for the six months ended July |
||||||
|
31, 2006 compared to the same period of the prior year. |
||||||
|
. This increase was primarily due to increased segment operating income, increased interest |
||||||
|
income and lower effective tax rates during the six months ended July 31, 2006 compared to the |
||||||
|
same period of the prior year. |
||||||
|
US Government spending |
||||||
|
. SAI estimates that more than $200 billion of government spend will be spent in areas in which |
||||||
|
SAI competes. |
||||||
|
. SAI believs that U.S. Government spending in SAI-related areas will continue to grow over the |
||||||
|
next several years as a result of homeland security and intelligence needs arising from the global |
||||||
|
war on terror, the ongoing transformation of the U.S. military and the increased reliance on |
||||||
|
outsourcing by the U.S. Government. |
||||||
|
Status, including backlog |
||||||
|
. As of July 31, 2006, had a portfolio of 9,000 active contracts. |
||||||
|
. Total consolidated negotiated backlog as of July 31, 2006 was $16.0 billion, which included |
||||||
|
funded backlog of approximately $4.0 billion, compared to $15.1 billion and $3.9 billion, |
||||||
|
respectively, as of January 31, 2006. |
||||||
|
. In May 2006, Washington Technology, a leading industry publication, ranked SAI number three |
||||||
|
in its list of Top Federal Prime Contractors in the United States based on information technology |
||||||
|
(IT), telecommunications and systems integration revenues. |
||||||
|
Risks |
||||||
|
Bid Risks |
||||||
|
The U.S. Government has increasingly relied on certain types of contracts that are subject to a |
||||||
|
competitive bidding process. Due to this competitive pressure, SAI cautions that it may be unable |
||||||
|
to sustain our revenue growth and profitability. |
||||||
|
. The U.S. Government has increasingly been using contract vehicles, such as indefinite |
||||||
|
delivery/indefinite quantity (IDIQ), government-wide acquisition contracts (GWACs) and General |
||||||
|
Services Administration (GSA) Schedule contract vehicles, to obtain commitments from |
||||||
|
contractors to provide various products or services on pre-established terms and conditions. |
||||||
|
. Under these contracts, the U.S. Government issues task orders for specific services or products it |
||||||
|
needs and the contractor supplies these products or services in accordance with the previously |
||||||
|
agreed terms. |
||||||
|
. These contracts often have multi-year terms and unfunded ceiling amounts, therefore enabling |
||||||
|
but not committing the U.S. Government to purchase substantial amounts of products and services |
||||||
|
from one or more contractors. |
||||||
|
. These contracts are typically subject to a competitive bidding process that results in greater |
||||||
|
competition and increased pricing pressure. |
||||||
|
. Accordingly, we may not be able to realize revenues and/or maintain our historical profit margins |
||||||
|
under these contracts. |
||||||
|
Additional bid risks |
||||||
|
. The competitive bidding process also presents a number of more general risks, including the risk |
||||||
|
of unforeseen technological difficulties and cost overruns that may result from bidding on |
||||||
|
programs before completion of their design |
||||||
|
. And there is the risk that SAI may encounter expense, delay or modifications to previously |
||||||
|
awarded contracts as a result of competitors protesting or challenging contracts awarded to SAI in |
||||||
|
competitive bidding |
||||||
|
Political risk |
||||||
|
. If there is a change in Congressional control in the November elections, the control change is |
||||||
|
expected to result in significantly slower growth for the type of services that SAI targets, such as |
||||||
|
national security, defense transformation, intelligence and homeland security |
||||||
|
. Or a political change could result in a significant shift in spending priorities, or the substantial |
||||||
|
reduction or elimination of particular defense-related programs |
||||||
|
DoD risks |
||||||
|
. Revenues under contracts with the DoD, including subcontracts under which the DoD is the |
||||||
|
ultimate purchaser, represented 69% of SAI’s total consolidated revenues in fiscal 2006. |
||||||
|
. The U.S. Government conducted a strategic review of the U.S. defense budget in government |
||||||
|
fiscal 2005 and 2006, known as the Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR), and |
||||||
|
. The results of this strategic review may result in shifts in DoD budgetary priorities or reductions |
||||||
|
in overall U.S. Government spending for defense-related programs, including with respect to |
||||||
|
programs from which SAI expects to derive a significant portion of revenues. |
||||||
|
Contract lawsuit with the Greek government |
||||||
|
. SAI entered a contract with the Greek government to provide the security infrastructure that was |
||||||
|
used to support the 2004 Athens Summer Olympic Games and to serve as the security system for |
||||||
|
the Greek government’s public order departments after the Olympic Games. |
||||||
|
. SAI has received $147 million of payments from the Greek government under the contract and |
||||||
|
recognized as revenues only $120 million of the total system price of $199 million. |
||||||
|
. As of July 31, 2006, has recorded $123 million of losses on this contract and unfavorable |
||||||
|
resolution of this matter could further adversely affect SAI’s profitability and cash balances |
||||||
|
. If the Greek government asserts claims against SAI in the arbitration and it is determined that |
||||||
|
SAI hase breached the Greek contract and, as a result, owe the Greek government damages, such |
||||||
|
damages could include, but are not limited to, (1) re-procurement costs, (2) repayment of amounts |
||||||
|
paid of $147 million under the Greek contact, (3) penalties for delayed delivery |
||||||
|
Seasonality |
||||||
|
. The U.S. Government’s fiscal year ends on September 30 of each year. It is not uncommon for |
||||||
|
U.S. Government agencies to award extra tasks or complete other contract actions in the weeks |
||||||
|
before the end of its fiscal year in order to avoid the loss of unexpended fiscal year funds. |
||||||
|
. As a result of this cyclicality in the U.S. Government budget process, SAI has from time to time |
||||||
|
experienced higher revenues in the third fiscal quarter, ending October 31, and lower revenues in |
||||||
|
the fourth fiscal quarter, ending January 31. |
||||||
|
Competition |
||||||
|
SAI believes that its employee ownership culture helps differentiates it from competition, which include the following: |
||||||
|
. Among contractors focused principally on U.S. Government IT and other technical services, SAI |
||||||
|
competes primarily with companies such as Anteon International Corporation, which was acquired |
||||||
|
by General Dynamics, CACI International Inc, ManTech International Corporation, SRA |
||||||
|
International, Inc. and The Titan Corporation, which was acquired by L-3 Communications. |
||||||
|
. Among the large defense contractors which provide U.S. Government IT services in addition to |
||||||
|
other hardware systems and products, SAI competes primarily with engineering and technical |
||||||
|
services divisions of The Boeing Company, General Dynamics Corporation, Lockheed Martin |
||||||
|
Corporation, Northrop Grumman Corporation and Raytheon Company. |
||||||
|
. Among the diversified commercial and U.S. Government IT providers, SAI competes primarily |
||||||
|
with companies such as Accenture Ltd, BearingPoint, Inc., Booz Allen Hamilton Inc., Computer |
||||||
|
Sciences Corporation, Electronic Data Systems Corporation, International Business Machines |
||||||
|
Corporation and Unisys Corporation. |
||||||
|
Voting control |
||||||
|
. Public shareholders get one vote per share |
||||||
|
. Non-public shareholders get 10 votes per share |
||||||
|
Reorganization and use of $1bb in IPO proceeds |
||||||
|
Plans on paying up to $2.4 billion in cash dividends to pre-IPO shareholders |
||||||
|
. Old SAIC will declare a special dividend in an aggregate amount of between $1.6 billion and |
||||||
|
$2.4 billion, payable to holders of record of Old SAIC class A and class B common stock |
||||||
|
immediately prior to the reorganization merger. |
||||||
|
. The special dividend will exceed the net proceeds from this offering by an amount ranging from |
||||||
|
$620 million to $1.4 billion, depending on the size of the dividend. |
||||||
|
. Following the completion of this offering, SAI will have, on a consolidated basis, cash of |
||||||
|
$3.4 billion to pay the special dividend of $2.4 billion, which reflects the maximum amount of the |
||||||
|
dividend range |
||||||
|
. Cash remaining after the special dividend payment and borrowing capacity will be used for |
||||||
|
general corporate purposes, including working capital, capital spending, internal growth initiatives |
||||||
|
and possible investments in, or acquisitions of, complementary businesses, services or |
||||||
|
technologies |
||||||
|
====================================================================== |
||||||
|
UltraPetrol Bahamas |
ULTR, C+, 6 |
|||||
|
Shipping -- dry bulk & liquids |
Post-IPO shrs:28mm |
|||||
|
Nassau, Bahamas |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
June 05* |
June 06* |
IPO Mkt |
|
Rev ($mm) |
$75 |
$95 |
$125 |
$69 |
$78 |
Cap (mm) |
|
Operating Exp % |
55% |
43% |
56% |
47% |
54% |
$392 |
|
Operating Profit Exp % |
2% |
29% |
34% |
21% |
21% |
@$14 |
|
Financial Exp % |
21% |
17% |
14% |
13% |
11% |
|
|
Income ($mm) |
-$11.5 |
$5.1 |
$16.7 |
$25.0 |
$7.6 |
|
|
Net income %* |
-15% |
5% |
13% |
36% |
10% |
|
|
Note: proforma for 2005 and June 30, 2006 |
*for the six months ended June 30 |
|||||
|
"Financial Exp" is mostly likely interest expense, although the filing doesn't say so explicitly |
||||||
|
VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
|
Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
|
|
UltraPetrol Bhms ULTR |
$392 |
2.5 |
26 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
45% |
|
SCORECARD |
Mgt |
Market |
Market Do- |
Proprie- |
Total |
|
|
1-5, 5 is high |
Growth |
mination |
tary |
rating |
||
|
20 is perfect |
2 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
6 |
|
|
Summary |
||||||
|
. Mundane industrial shipping company planning to IPO based on future expectations |
||||||
|
. With an IPO price-to-earnigns ratio that seems high for the segment |
||||||
|
. Can't pay dividents based on restrictive debt covenants |
||||||
|
. Insiders get 7 votes per share, public shareholders get one vote per share |
||||||
|
Business |
||||||
|
. An industrial shipping company serving the marine transportation market |
||||||
|
. Includes shipping markets for grain, forest products, minerals, crude oil, petroleum, and refined |
||||||
|
petroleum products, as well as the offshore oil platform supply market |
||||||
|
. And the leisure passenger cruise market through operations in the following four segments of the |
||||||
|
marine transportation industry. |
||||||
|
Recent acquisitions |
||||||
|
. On March 20, 2006, purchased Ravenscroft, from two of related parties, Crosstrade Maritime |
||||||
|
Inc., and Crosstrees Maritime Inc., for the purchase price of $11.5 million. |
||||||
|
. Ravenscroft Shipping (Bahamas) S.A. is a holding company that is the ultimate parent of |
||||||
|
ULTR’s vessel managers, Ravenscroft Ship Management Inc., which manages the vessels in the |
||||||
|
Ocean Business and Offshore Supply Business, and Elysian Ship Management Inc., which |
||||||
|
manages the vessels in the Passenger Business |
||||||
|
. Separately, ULTR purchased 66.67% UP Offshore (Bahamas) Ltd., through which ULTR |
||||||
|
operates its Offshore Supply Business, from LAIF, an affiliate of Solimar, one of the selling |
||||||
|
shareholders (if the over allotment underwriter option is excercised), for a purchase price of $48.0 |
||||||
|
million on March 21, 2006. |
||||||
|
Four segments |
||||||
|
. River Business, with 490 barges, is the largest owner and operator of river barges and pushboats |
||||||
|
that transport dry bulk and liquid cargos through the Hidrovia Region of South America, a large |
||||||
|
area with growing agricultural, forest and mineral related exports |
||||||
|
. Offshore Supply Business, owns and operates vessels that provide critical logistical and |
||||||
|
transportation services for offshore petroleum exploration and production companies, primarily in |
||||||
|
the North Sea and the coastal waters of Brazil. Our Offshore Supply Business fleet currently |
||||||
|
consists of proprietarily designed, technologically advanced platform supply vessels, or PSVs, |
||||||
|
including four in operation and two under construction to be delivered in 2007 and 2008. |
||||||
|
. Ocean Business, owns and operates six oceangoing vessels, including three versatile |
||||||
|
Suezmax/Oil-Bulk-Ore, or Suezmax OBO, vessels, one Aframax tanker, one semi-integrated |
||||||
|
tug/barge unit and one chemical/product carrier. The Ocean Business fleet has an aggregate |
||||||
|
capacity of approximately 600,000 dwt, and three Suezmax OBOs are capable of carrying either |
||||||
|
dry bulk or liquid cargos, providing flexibility as dynamics change between these market sectors. |
||||||
|
. Passenger Business fleet, consists of two vessels with a total carrying capacity of approximately |
||||||
|
1,600 passengers, and operates primarily in the European cruise market. Currently employs each |
||||||
|
passenger vessels under seasonal charters with a tour operator. In addition, is currently negotiating |
||||||
|
opportunities to operate these vessels during periods outside the European travel season. |
||||||
|
Management |
||||||
|
. Led by members of the Menendez family, which has been in the shipping industry since 1876. |
||||||
|
. Senior executive officers have on average 34 years of experience in the shipping industry. |
||||||
|
Voting rights |
||||||
|
. Existing shareholders are expressly entitled to seven votes per share on all shares held directly by |
||||||
|
them |
||||||
|
. All other holders of shares of common stock are entitled to one vote per share |
||||||
|
Dividends |
||||||
|
ULTR’s ability to pay dividends is restricted by the Notes, issued in 2004 |
||||||
|
Use of $160mm in IPO proceeds |
||||||
|
. $48.0 million to repay the note issued to LAIF, a related company, in connection with purchase |
||||||
|
of its 66.67% interest in UP Offshore; |
||||||
|
. $11.5 million to repay the notes issued to Crosstrees Maritime Inc. and Crosstrade Maritime Inc., |
||||||
|
related companies, in connection with ULTR’s purchase of Ravenscroft and related assets; |
||||||
|
. $52.9 million to repay some of variable interest rate indebtedness owed to IFC and certain of |
||||||
|
other lenders, including an affiliate of the underwriters; |
||||||
|
. $4.3 million to redeem UP Offshore’s redeemable preferred shares issued to IFC; |
||||||
|
. $6.2 million to discharge the obligations to IFC resulting from purchase of its interest in ULTR’s |
||||||
|
River Business; |
||||||
|
. $20.0 million to be held as working capital to fund a portion of the balance of the construction |
||||||
|
costs of the two PSVs being built in Brazil; |
||||||
|
. the remainder, or approximately $17.3 million, for general corporate purposes. |
||||||
|
==================================================================== |
||||||