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Financial Performance & Scoring -- © 2006 Gaskins IPO Desktop/IPOdesktop |
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Pre-IPO analysis, grading & scoring -- updated Sept 22 |
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. Business Model Rating Criteria |
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A = high growth market, potential leader; B = more competitive market; C='public venture capital' |
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. Calculations |
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. IPO Price to annualized Sales Ratio -- (Price / Sales) |
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Numerator |
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Denominator |
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IPO market capitalization… |
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Annualized Sales (last six month's revenues times 2) |
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(post-IPO # of shares times mid-point of IPO price range) |
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. IPO Price to annualized Earnings (loss) -- (Price / Earnings) |
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Numerator |
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Denominator |
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IPO market cap |
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Annualized Earnings (loss) from the last quarter |
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========================================================================= |
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SEARCH BY COMPANY |
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Use 'Edit, find on this page' to search for companies |
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for analysis |
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scheduled below |
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========================================================================= |
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Summary ratios for the week of Sept 25 |
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(P/E ratios based on annualizing the June six months, unless otherwise noted) |
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VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
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Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
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Adcare Health, tba, units |
$21 |
1.0 |
-8 |
2.0 |
3.2 |
52% |
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assisted living facilities: C, 6 |
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Post-IPO shrs:4.2mm |
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Bare Escentuals (BARE) |
$1,392 |
3.7 |
28 |
-3.5 |
-3.5 |
11% |
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Mineral-based cosmetics, B-, 8 |
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Post-IPO shrs:87mm |
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CBRE Realty (CBF) |
$467 |
7.6 |
52 |
1.1 |
1.1 |
34% |
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REIT, C+, 6 |
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Post-IPO shrs:29mm |
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EV Energy Prtnrs(EVEP) |
$152 |
1.1 |
5 |
1.7 |
1.7 |
102% |
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oil & gas partnership, C+, 6 |
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Post-IPO shrs:20mm |
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ICF International (ICFI) |
$194 |
1.4 |
-323 |
1.9 |
10.6 |
36% |
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consulting for the US gov, C+, 7 |
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Post-IPO shrs:13mm |
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ImaRX Thera (IMRX) |
$196 |
1.5 |
15 |
4.1 |
4.3 |
28% |
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therapies for blood clots, C+, 7 |
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Post-IPO shrs:42mm |
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Mindray Medical (MR) |
$1,141 |
6.7 |
28 |
5.7 |
7.8 |
19% |
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Chinese medical devices, B-, 9 |
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Post-IPO shrs:104mm |
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Omni Financial (OFSI) |
$116 |
4.8 |
21 |
1.8 |
1.9 |
29% |
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regional bank, 11 states in so east U.S., C+, 7 |
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Post-IPO shrs:10.5mm |
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Shutterfly (SFLY) |
$330 |
0.4 |
-45 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
25% |
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online photo service, C, 6 |
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Post-IPO shrs:24mm |
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========================================================================= |
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SEARCH BY COMPANY |
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Use 'Edit, find on this page' to search for companies |
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for analysis |
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scheduled below |
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========================================================================= |
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Adcare Health Systems |
tba, C, 6 |
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assisted living facilities |
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Post-IPO shrs:4.2mm |
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Springfield, OH |
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2004 |
2005 |
6mos June |
IPO Mkt |
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Rev ($mm) |
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$18.3 |
$21.9 |
$11.0 |
Cap (mm) |
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Income ($mm) |
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$0.1 |
-$0.9 |
-$1.3 |
$21 |
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Net income % |
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0.4% |
-4.0% |
-11.8% |
@$10 units |
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VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
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Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
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Adcare Health, tba, units |
$21 |
1.0 |
-8 |
2.0 |
3.2 |
52% |
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SCORECARD |
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Mgt |
Market |
Market Do- |
Proprie- |
Total |
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1-5, 5 is high |
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Growth |
mination |
tary |
rating |
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20 is perfect |
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2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
6 |
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Units |
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1,100,000 units, with each unit consisting of two shares of common stock and two five-year |
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`warrants each to purchase one share of common stock. |
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Business |
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. Developer, owner and manager of retirement communities, assisted living facilities, nursing |
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homes, and home health care services in the state of Ohio. |
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. Currently manages fifteen facilities, comprised of six skilled nursing centers, seven assisted |
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living residences and two independent living/senior housing facilities, totaling over 800 beds. Also |
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recently acquired an established home health care business. |
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Accounting problem |
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In July 2006, Adcare determined that it had accounted incorrectly for two transactions. As a result |
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Adcare restated consolidated financial statements for the years ended December 31, 2005 and |
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December 31, 2004, to correct the method of accounting for those two transactions. |
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Use of $8.8mm in IPO proceeds |
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. Retirement of Debt, $2.2mm |
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. Expansion of Home Health Care, $.5mm |
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. Acquisitions of New Businesses, $4mm |
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. Working Capital, $2.1mm |
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========================================================= |
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Bare Escentuals (BARE) |
BARE, B-, 8 |
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Mineral-based cosmetics |
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Post-IPO shrs:87mm |
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San Francisco, CA |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
6mos June |
IPO Mkt |
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Rev ($mm) |
$95 |
$142 |
$259 |
$186 |
Cap (mm) |
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Gross Margin % |
67% |
72% |
71% |
72% |
$1,392 |
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Income ($mm) |
$12 |
$4 |
$24 |
$25 |
@$16 |
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Net income % |
13% |
3% |
9% |
13% |
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Interest expense |
$2 |
$6 |
$22 |
$22 |
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Interest exp % of net income |
13% |
158% |
90% |
88% |
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VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
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Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
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Bare Escentuals (BARE) |
$1,392 |
3.7 |
27.8 |
-3.5 |
-3.5 |
11% |
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SCORECARD |
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Mgt |
Market |
Market Do- |
Proprie- |
Total |
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1-5, 5 is high |
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Growth |
mination |
tary |
rating |
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20 is perfect |
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2 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
8 |
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Compare & Contrast -- trailing 12 month P/E's |
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Alberto-Culver Co. (ACV) |
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23.6 |
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Estee Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) |
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35.1 |
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Avon Products Inc. (AVP) |
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24.9 |
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Versus Bare Escentuals (BARE) * |
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27.8 |
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*assuming price range midpoint, annualizing June 30 six months results |
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Summary |
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. Profitable, high gross margin, significant top line revenue growth, brand building momentum |
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. Business is diversified between wholesale, infomercials & retail |
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. Strong income statement, significant interest expense |
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. Highly leveraged: interest expense as a % of net income was 88% for the June 30 six months |
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. June 2004 leveraged buyout, stockholders since then have paid themselves $645mm in dividends, |
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and the entire use of proceeds is to repay debt |
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. Weak balance sheet with a negative book value |
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Business |
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. One of the fastest growing prestige beauty companies in the U.S. and a leader by sales and |
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consumer awareness in mineral-based cosmetics, including skin care, and body care products |
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under the BARE i.d. bareMinerals, i.d., RareMinerals and namesake Bare Escentuals brands, and |
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professional skin care products under the md formulations brand. |
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Segments, based on six months ended July 2, 2006 |
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. Wholesale, 53.5% |
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. Retail, 13% |
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. Infomercials, 33.5% |
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Differentiated |
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. BARE believes its i.d. bareMinerals cosmetics, particularly the core foundation products, offer a |
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highly differentiated, healthy and lightweight alternative to conventional liquid- or cream-based |
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cosmetics while providing light to maximum coverage for all skin types. |
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. As such, BARE believes its foundation products have broad appeal to women of all ages |
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including women who did not previously wear foundation before using i.d. bareMinerals. |
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Marketing |
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. BARE utilizes a distinctive marketing strategy and multi-channel distribution model consisting |
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of infomercials, home shopping television, specialty beauty retailers, company-owned boutiques |
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and spas and salons. |
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. This model has enabled BARE to increase brand awareness, consumer loyalty and market share |
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and achieve favorable operating margins. |
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. Bare Escentuals was the top-selling cosmetics brand company-wide at leading specialty beauty |
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retailers Sephora and Ulta during 2005. |
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. Over the last five fiscal years, BARE has increased net sales approximately 87.5% on a |
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compound annual basis, and during the fiscal year ended January 1, 2006, operating income was |
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29.8% of net sales |
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Growth Strategy |
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> Further penetrate each of multiple distribution channels. |
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o Wholesale. |
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o Retail. Intends to expand the base of company-owned boutiques and to grow infomercial sales. |
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As of July 2, 2006, operated 30 boutiques and reported average annual net sales of |
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$1,400 per square foot for the fiscal year ended January 1, 2006 |
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> Cross-sell other products. |
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> Develop new product concepts |
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> Expand global presence. BARE currently believes that Japan, the United Kingdom, Germany, |
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France and South Korea represent the most significant market opportunities for expanding its |
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global presence. |
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Competition |
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. Competes with the major makeup and skin care companies which market many brands including |
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Avon, Bobbi Brown, Chanel, Clarins, Clinique, Estée Lauder, L'Oréal, Lancôme, M.A.C., |
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Neutrogena, Shiseido and Smashbox, as well as many specialty players in the beauty industry. |
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. Also competes with several smaller mineral-based cosmetics brands. |
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Recapitalizations |
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$645mm in dividends paid to stockholders |
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. In June 2004 affiliates of Berkshire Partners LLC, JH Partners, LLC, a San Francisco-based |
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private equity firm, and members of management acquired a majority controlling interest in the |
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company. |
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. In the transaction, BARE incurred approximately $100.0 million of new indebtedness, raised |
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approximately $87.5 million of new equity financing and used $169.6 million to repurchase |
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outstanding shares of capital stock and fully vested options |
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. In February 2005, incurred approximately $224.5 million of new indebtedness, repaid a total of |
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$92.6 million of existing debt and paid a special dividend to stockholders of $122.4 million. |
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. In October 2005, incurred approximately $187.5 million of new indebtedness and paid a special |
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dividend to stockholders of $183.5 million. |
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. In June 2006, incurred approximately $331.6 million of new indebtedness and paid a special |
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dividend to stockholders of $340.4 million. |
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Use of $236mm in IPO proceeds |
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. $233.8 million to repay debt |
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. After application of the net proceeds of this offering and the concurrent refinancing of a portion of debt, |
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BARE expects to have a total of $479.9 million in outstanding indebtedness. |
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================================================== |
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CBRE Realty Finance |
CBF, C+, 6 |
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REIT |
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Post-IPO shrs:29mm |
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Hartford, CT |
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3mos June |
IPO Mkt |
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Rev ($mm) |
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$15 |
Cap (mm) |
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Pre-tax Income ($mm) |
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$2 |
$467 |
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Net income % |
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15% |
@$16 |
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VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
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Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
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CBRE Realty (CBF) |
$467 |
7.6 |
52 |
1.1 |
1.1 |
34% |
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SCORECARD |
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Mgt |
Market |
Market Do- |
Proprie- |
Total |
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1-5, 5 is high |
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Growth |
mination |
tary |
rating |
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20 is perfect |
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2 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
6 |
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Business -- REIT |
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. Externally managed and advised by CBRE Realty Finance Management, LLC, an indirect |
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subsidiary of CB Richard Ellis, Inc., or CBRE, and a direct subsidiary of CBRE Melody & |
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Company, or CBRE/Melody. |
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. CBRE indirectly owns 54.5% of the economic interest in the Manager and the remainder is |
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owned in the aggregate by executive officers and certain executives of CBRE/Melody. |
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Sources |
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. Sources investments through two primary channels: the unique relationship with the |
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CBRE/Melody origination system, and the origination capabilities of our management team, |
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including their relationships with borrowers, sellers of whole loans, various financial institutions |
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and other financial intermediaries, which we refer to as our internal origination system. |
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. Of the $1,057.3 million of investments held as of August 31, 2006, 45.1% was sourced through |
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the affiliated CBRE system. |
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Formation and Structure |
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. Organized as a Maryland corporation in May 2005 and completed a private offering of common |
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stock in June 2005 in which we raised net proceeds of approximately $282.5 million. Credit Suisse |
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Securities (USA) LLC, Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., Banc of America Securities LLC and |
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Citigroup Global Markets Inc. |
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Use of $126mm in IPO proceeds from sale of 8.5mm shares |
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(shareholders intend to sell 1.5mm shares) |
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Repay debt |
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=============================================================== |
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EV Energy Partners L.P. |
EVEP, C+, 6 |
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oil & gas partnership |
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Post-IPO shrs:20mm |
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Houston, TX |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
6mos June |
IPO Mkt |
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Rev ($mm) |
$13.6 |
$30.0 |
$26.0 |
$15.0 |
Cap (mm) |
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Pre-tax Income ($mm) |
$2.7 |
$8.3 |
$10.4 |
$6.3 |
$152 |
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Net income % |
19.9% |
27.7% |
40.0% |
42.0% |
@$20 |
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VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
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Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
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EV Energy Prtnrs(EVEP) |
$152 |
1.1 |
5.1 |
1.7 |
1.7 |
102% |
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SCORECARD |
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Mgt |
Market |
Market Do- |
Proprie- |
Total |
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1-5, 5 is high |
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Growth |
mination |
tary |
rating |
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20 is perfect |
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2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
6 |
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8% anticipated return on limited partnership units |
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Business |
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. Limited partnership formed in April 2006 to acquire, produce and develop oil and gas properties. |
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. Intends to pay holders of common units distributions of available cash of $0.40 per unit for each |
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quarter, or $1.60 per unit annually, before pay any distributions paid to holders of subordinated |
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units. |
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Properties |
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. Located in the Appalachian Basin, primarily in Ohio and West Virginia, and in the Monroe field |
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in Northern Louisiana. |
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. At December 31, 2005, oil and gas properties had estimated net proved reserves of 44.8 Bcf |
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of gas and 1.1 MMBbls of oil, or 51.2 Bcfe, and a present value of future net cash flows, |
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discounted at 10%, or standardized measure, of $161.2 million. |
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. Properties are located in mature fields and have a long reserve to production index of 18.8 years. |
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. EVEP;s 2005 reserve report includes a multi-year inventory of 80 relatively low risk, proved |
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undeveloped drilling locations, all of which are located on Appalachian properties. |
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Seasonal Business |
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. Seasonal weather conditions and lease stipulations can limit EVEP’s drilling and producing |
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activities and other operations in certain areas of the Appalachian Basin. |
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. As a result, EVEP generally performs the majority of drilling in the Appalachian Basin during |
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the summer and autumn months |
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Competition |
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. Other independent operators and from major oil companies in acquiring properties, contracting |
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for drilling equipment and securing trained personnel. |
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. Also affected by competition for drilling rigs and the availability of related equipment. |
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. In the past, the natural gas and oil industry has experienced shortages of drilling rigs, equipment, |
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pipe and personnel, which has delayed development drilling and other exploitation activities and |
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has caused significant price increases. |
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. Has entered into contracts with a drilling company to drill all of the wells on EVEP’s |
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Appalachian properties that EVEP plans to drill during 2006. |
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Use of $72.5mm in IPO proceeds |
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• $60.19 million to the former owners of the predecessors |
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• $10.35 million to repay in full the indebtedness incurred by one of the predecessors to purchase |
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EVEP’s Northern Louisiana properties; |
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• $2.0 million of the net proceeds for pocket legal, accounting, printing and other fees and |
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expenses of the offering |
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===================================================================== |
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ICF International |
ICFI, C+, 7 |
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consulting for the US gov |
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Post-IPO shrs:13mm |
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Fairfax, VA |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
6mos June |
IPO Mkt |
|
|
Rev ($mm) |
$146.0 |
$139.0 |
$208.0 |
$110.0 |
Cap (mm) |
|
|
Gross profit |
38% |
40% |
41% |
40% |
$194 |
|
|
Income ($mm) |
$2.4 |
$3.0 |
$1.8 |
-$0.3 |
@$15 |
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|
Net income % |
1.6% |
2.2% |
0.9% |
-0.3% |
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Note: June 30, 2006 results include a lease abandonment charge of $4.3mm |
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. After tax earnings without the lease abandonmnet charge* |
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$1.8 |
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. Annualized P/E multiple without lease cabandonment charge |
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54 |
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*assuming 2005 proforma tax rate |
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VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
|
Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
|
ICF International (ICFI) |
$194 |
1.4 |
-323 |
1.9 |
10.6 |
36% |
|
SCORECARD |
|
Mgt |
Market |
Market Do- |
Proprie- |
Total |
|
1-5, 5 is high |
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Growth |
mination |
tary |
rating |
|
20 is perfect |
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2 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
7 |
|
Notice the "Road Home Contract" below |
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Business |
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. Management, technology and policy consulting and implementation services primarily to the |
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U.S. federal government, as well as to other government, commercial and international clients. |
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. Helps clients conceive, develop, implement and improve solutions that address complex |
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economic, social and national security issues. |
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. Services primarily address four key markets: defense and homeland security; energy; |
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environment and infrastructure; and health, human services and social programs. |
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. Revenue generated from state and local government clients is expected to increase in 2006, due |
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primarily to work in connection with the Road Home Contract with the State of Louisiana |
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Clients |
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. U.S. federal government clients include every cabinet-level department, including the |
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Department of Defense, the Environmental Protection Agency, the Department of Homeland |
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Security, the Department of Transportation, the Department of Health and Human Services, the |
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Department of Housing and Urban Development, the Department of Justice and the Department of |
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Energy. U.S. federal government clients generated 72% of revenue in 2005. |
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. State and local government clients include the states of California, Louisiana, Massachusetts, |
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New York and Pennsylvania. State and local government clients generated 9% of revenue in 2005. |
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. Also serves commercial and international clients, primarily in the energy sector, including |
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electric and gas utilities, oil companies and law firms. Commercial and international clients |
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generated 19% of revenue in 2005. |
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Road Home Contract |
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. ICFI has been awarded a contract (Road Home Contract) by the State of Louisiana’s Office of |
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Community Development, effective June 12, 2006, to serve as the manager for The Road Home |
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Housing Program |
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. This program, which is being funded with approximately $8.1 billion of Community |
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Development Block Grant funds allocated by the Department of Housing and Urban |
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Development, is designed to assist the population affected by Hurricanes Rita and Katrina to |
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repair, rebuild or relocate by making certain reimbursements to qualified homeowners and small |
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rental unit landlords for their uninsured, uncompensated damages. |
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Contract terms |
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. Although the request for proposals leading to this award anticipated a five-year contract, due to |
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limitations under Louisiana law, the Road Home Contract has a stated term of three years. |
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. The maximum amount payable to ICF EMS and its subcontractors with respect to the first four |
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month phase of the contract will be $87.2 million, and funding levels beyond the first phase have |
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not yet been negotiated. |
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. ICFI does not expect the amount payable during the first phase to be indicative of future revenue |
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levels during the balance of the contract term. |
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. In addition, key subcontractors will perform a substantial portion, perhaps 50 to 65%, of the |
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work under the contract, which will increase ICFI’s direct costs associated with the contract. |
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Three phases of work |
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. Funding has been secured only for the first phase that lasts for a period of four months |
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. Additional funding will depend on performance in phase one and the ability of ICF EMS and its |
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subcontractors to meet the deadlines stated in the contract. |
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. There is no assurance the State of Louisiana will amend the contract to add funding for later |
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phases if these deadlines are not met or if the State is not satisfied with ICFI’s and ICFI’s |
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subcontractors’ performance |
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Competition |
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. Some of the principal competitors include BearingPoint, Inc., Booz Allen Hamilton, Inc., CRA |
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International, Inc., L-3 Communications Corporation, Lockheed Martin Corporation, Navigant |
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Consulting, Inc., Northrop Grumman Corporation, PA Consulting Group, SAIC, Inc., and SRA |
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International, Inc. |
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. In addition, within each of the four key markets, ICFI has numerous smaller competitors, many |
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of which have narrower service offerings and serve niche markets. |
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Use of $49mm in IPO proceeds from sale of 3.7mm shares |
|
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|
|
(shareholders intend to sell 1mm shares) |
|
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|
. up to $46 million to repay a portion of the existing indebtedness under our revolving credit and |
|
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|
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term loan facilities; |
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. $2.7 million for one-time bonus payments due to employees under an amended and restated |
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|
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employee annual incentive compensation pool |
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. balance for general corporate purposes, including working capital and potential acquisitions. |
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|
======================================================== |
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ImaRX Therapeutics |
IMRX, C+, 7 |
|
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therapies for blood clots |
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|