IPOdesktop.com Pre-IPO grading & scoring methodology
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Financial Performance & Scoring -- © 2006 Gaskins IPO Desktop/IPOdesktop |
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Pre-IPO analysis, grading & scoring -- updated Sept 29 |
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. Business Model Rating Criteria |
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A = high growth market, potential leader; B = more competitive market; C='public venture capital' |
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. Calculations |
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. IPO Price to annualized Sales Ratio -- (Price / Sales) |
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Numerator |
Denominator |
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IPO market capitalization… |
Annualized Sales (last six month's revenues times 2) |
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(post-IPO # of shares times mid-point of IPO price range) |
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. IPO Price to annualized Earnings (loss) -- (Price / Earnings) |
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Numerator |
Denominator |
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IPO market cap |
Annualized Earnings (loss) from the last quarter |
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SEARCH BY COMPANY |
Use 'Edit, find on this page' to search for companies |
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for analysis |
scheduled below |
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========================================================================= |
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Summary ratios for the week of Oct 2 (IPOs not previously analyzed, scored & graded) |
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(P/E ratios based on annualizing the June six months, unless otherwise noted) |
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VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
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Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
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BreitBurn Energy(BBEP) |
$440 |
7.9 |
110 |
3.2 |
3.3 |
27% |
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oil & gas partnership, C, 6 |
Post-IPO shrs:22mm |
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Danaos Corp (DAC) |
$1,147 |
5.0 |
13 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
19% |
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containerships, C+, 7 |
Post-IPO shrs:55mm |
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Light Sciences (LSON) |
$278 |
n/a |
-19 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
28% |
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light activated solid tumor treatment, C, 6 |
Post-IPO shrs:19mm |
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Rosetta Genmcs(ROSG) |
$126 |
n/a |
-20 |
2.7 |
2.7 |
29% |
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========================================================================= |
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SEARCH BY COMPANY |
Use 'Edit, find on this page' to search for companies |
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for analysis |
scheduled below |
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========================================================================= |
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BreitBurn Energy Prtnrs |
BBEP, C, 6 |
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oil & gas partnership |
Post-IPO shrs:22mm |
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Los Angeles, CA |
Proforma ==> |
2005 |
6mos June |
IPO Mkt |
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Rev ($mm) |
$67 |
$28 |
Cap (mm) |
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Income ($mm) |
$22 |
$2 |
$440 |
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Net income % |
33% |
7% |
@$20 |
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VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
|
Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
|
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BreitBurn Energy(BBEP) |
$440 |
7.9 |
110 |
3.2 |
3.3 |
27% |
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SCORECARD |
Mgt |
Market |
Market Do- |
Proprie- |
Total |
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1-5, 5 is high |
Growth |
mination |
tary |
rating |
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20 is perfect |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
6 |
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Summary: a limited partnership in a 'non-hot' area with an history of production declines |
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Limited partnership |
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Pay out expectations |
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. $.4125 per common unit to the extent BBEP has sufficient cash from operations after establishment |
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of cash reserves and payment of fees and expenses. |
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. Which is $1.65 or 8+% annualized |
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Business |
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. Independent oil and gas partnership focused on the acquisition, exploitation and development of |
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oil and gas properties. |
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. Assets consist primarily of producing and non-producing crude oil reserves located in the Los |
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Angeles Basin in California and the Wind River and Big Horn Basins in central Wyoming |
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Production declines |
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Pro forma results as if Nautilus had been acquired January 1, 2005. |
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. From 2003 to 2004, the production volumes for the Partnership Properties declined by 6% due |
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primarily to natural production declines, which were partially offset by increased production from |
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two wells drilled in the Santa Fe Springs Field in 2004. |
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. On a pro forma basis to reflect a full six months of Nautilus volumes in 2005, production |
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volumes decreased by 3% primarily as a result of natural production declines. |
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History |
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. A predecessor to BreitBurn Energy was formed in May 1988 by Randall Breitenbach and Halbert |
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Washburn. Messrs. Breitenbach and Washburn are the co-CEOs of the general partner. |
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. In June 2004, Provident, a publicly traded Canadian energy trust, acquired a 92% indirect interest |
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in BreitBurn Energy. |
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. Pre-IPO Provident owns a 95.55% indirect interest in BreitBurn Energy, and BreitBurn |
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Corporation owns the remaining interest in BreitBurn Energy. |
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. In connection with this offering, BreitBurn Energy will contribute certain oil and gas properties |
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to BBEP. Upon completion of this offering, Provident and BreitBurn Corporation will indirectly |
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own the general partner, with a 2% general partner interest in BBEP, and in the aggregate a |
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71.24% limited partner interest BBEP. |
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Use of $108mm in IPO proceeds |
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. Repay $36.5mm in debt |
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. Distribute $71.6mm to Provident and BreitBurn Corp. |
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======================================================== |
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Danaos Corp |
DAC, C+, 7 |
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containerships |
Post-IPO shrs:55mm |
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Athens, Greece |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
6mos June |
IPO Mkt |
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Rev ($mm) |
$146 |
$208 |
$242 |
$114 |
Cap (mm) |
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Income ($mm) |
$60 |
$116 |
$123 |
$44 |
$1,147 |
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Net income % |
41% |
56% |
51% |
39% |
@$21 |
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VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
|
Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
|
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Danaos Corp (DAC) |
$1,147 |
5.0 |
13 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
19% |
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SCORECARD |
Mgt |
Market |
Market Do- |
Proprie- |
Total |
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1-5, 5 is high |
Growth |
mination |
tary |
rating |
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20 is perfect |
2 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
7 |
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Summary: containerized shipping, average remaining lease is 10.6 years. |
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However, a large supply of new ships is expected to enter the market in several years, putting |
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downward price pressure on the business |
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Dividend distribution expectations |
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. Intends to pay quarterly dividends of $0.44 per share, or $1.76 per share per year |
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. 8.38% annualized payout |
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. Expects to pay the first dividend in February 2007 |
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Business |
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. International owner of containerships, chartering our vessels to many of the world's largest liner |
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companies. |
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. Current fleet of 27 containerships aggregating 116,115 TEUs |
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[Container capacity is measured in twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU). A twenty-foot equivalent |
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unit is a measure of containerized cargo capacity equal to one standard 20 ft (length) × 8 ft (width) |
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× 8 ft 6 in (height) container.] |
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. Making DAC among the ten largest containership charter owners in the world, based on total |
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TEU capacity. |
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Six months ended June 30, 2006 versus 2005 |
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. Operating revenue decreased 8.0%, or $9.9 million, to $114.5 million in the six months ended |
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June 30, 2006, from $124.4 million in the six months ended June 30, 2005. |
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. The decrease was a result of a $21.5 million decrease in revenue generated by drybulk carriers |
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(DAC has exited that business, see below), which were deployed on short-term time charters, |
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because of the lower charter rates DAC's drybulk carriers earned during the period |
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. However, DAC experienced an $11.6 million increase in revenues generated by escalations in |
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contractual charter rates in accordance with the terms of existing charters for certain of DAC's |
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containerships as well as the addition of the MOL Confidence, a 4,651 TEU containership, to |
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DAC's fleet on March 23, 2006 |
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Strategy |
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. Charter containerships under multi-year, fixed-rate time charters to a geographically diverse |
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group of liner companies, including many of the largest such companies globally, as measured by |
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TEU capacity. |
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. Currently, customers include Maersk, COSCO, Hapag-Lloyd, CMA-CGM, Hyundai, APL-NOL, |
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Norasia, Yang Ming, Wan Hai and China Shipping. |
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. Charters range from two and a half to 12 years, which provides with stable cash flows and high |
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utilization rates. |
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. The average remaining duration of the charters for DAC's containership fleet, including 16 |
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contracted vessels for which DAC has arranged charters, will be 10.6 years as of October 1, 2006 |
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(weighted by aggregate contracted charter hire). |
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In and out of the dry bulk business |
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. While the focus is on the containership sector, in 2002 DAC made an investment in the drybulk |
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sector when DAC believed there was a significant opportunity to capitalize on the cyclicality and |
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volatility inherent in that market. |
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. In August 2006, however, DAC agreed to sell the six 1994-built drybulk carriers in its fleet, with |
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an aggregate capacity of 342,158 dwt, for an aggregate of $143.5 million to a single purchaser, |
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which is not affiliated with DAC. |
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History |
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. Principally owned by the Coustas Family. Dimitris Coustas, the father of the chief executive |
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officer, John Coustas, first invested in shipping in 1963 and founded the manager, Danaos |
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Shipping Company Limited, or Danaos Shipping, in 1972. |
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. After assuming management of our company in 1987, John Coustas has focused a strategy on building a large, modern containership fleet to serve the container shipping industry. |
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Newbuilding contracts |
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. DAC currently has newbuilding contracts or purchase agreements for 16 additional |
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containerships aggregating 84,704 TEUs, which represent a 72.9% growth in the TEU capacity of |
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the containership fleet. |
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. DAC expects the newbuildings to be delivered during the remainder of 2006, in 2007, in the |
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second half of 2008 and in 2009. |
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Use of $198mm in IPO proceeds |
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Repay debt |
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======================================================== |
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Light Sciences Oncology |
LSON, C, 6 |
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light activated solid tumor treatment |
Post-IPO shrs:19mm |
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Snoqualmie, WA |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
6mos June |
IPO Mkt |
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Cap (mm) |
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Loss ($mm) |
-$4.6 |
-$9.0 |
-$8 |
-$7 |
$278 |
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@$15 |
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VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
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Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
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Light Sciences (LSON) |
$278 |
n/a |
-19 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
28% |
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SCORECARD |
Mgt |
Market |
Market Do- |
Proprie- |
Total |
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1-5, 5 is high |
Growth |
mination |
tary |
rating |
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20 is perfect |
2 |
2 |
0 |
2 |
6 |
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Business |
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. Developing Light Infusion Therapy ("Litx"), an innovative light-activated treatment for solid |
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tumors. |
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. Currently developing Litx for the treatment of patients with cancers such as hepatoma, metastatic |
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colorectal cancer and glioma, for which the current therapeutic alternatives are of limited efficacy. |
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Litx has been designed to treat a wide range of solid tumors, including previously treated or |
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untreatable tumors, and to be used repeatedly throughout a patient’s life as needed. |
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. Goal is to enable physicians to use Litx to treat cancer as a chronic disease. |
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Phase III trials |
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. Treatment of patients with hepatoma has begun in a Phase III trial, the final trial required by the |
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U.S. Food and Drug Administration ("FDA") prior to commercial registration of a drug. |
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. Patient treatments in a Phase III trial for metastatic colorectal cancer and a Phase II trial for |
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glioma are scheduled to begin in the second half of 2006. |
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. A Phase III trial for glioma is scheduled to begin in early 2007. |
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Litx |
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. Litx is a combination drug/device product that includes a proprietary flexible light emitting diode |
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("LED") array and LS11 (talaporfin sodium), a light-activated, water-soluble drug. |
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. Talaporfin sodium has been approved in Japan, where it is currently marketed by Meiji Seiki |
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Kaisha, Ltd. as Laserphyrin® for the treatment of early-stage bronchopulmonary cancer. |
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. In a Litx treatment, the physician inserts the LED array into the tumor through the skin in a |
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biopsy-like procedure. The physician then injects the patient with LS11, an inert molecule that has |
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no biological activity. When the LED array is activated, the light from the array energizes the |
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LS11 molecule, causing conversion of molecular oxygen to singlet oxygen, which kills tissue |
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within a zone surrounding the LED array and shuts down tumor blood supply within that zone. |
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compete with the potential products we are developing, and may obtain regulatory approvals for |
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such products more rapidly than we do, or develop products that are more effective than those we |
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are developing. |
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History – spin-off from Light Sciences. |
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Note: Since it was founded more than a decade ago, Light Sciences has been funded primarily by |
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former Microsoft treasurer Craig Watjen, along with a handful of other angel investors. |
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. Until October 2005, LSON was part of Light Sciences Corporation. |
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. LSON operated as a division of Light Sciences Corporation until December 2004, at which time |
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LSON became a subsidiary of Light Sciences Corporation. |
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. In October 2005, Light Sciences Corporation granted LSON a license and sublicense to use |
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certain intellectual property that is critical to the business and transferred certain assets to LSON; |
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LSON assumed certain liabilities of Light Sciences Corporation; and issued shares of Series A |
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convertible preferred stock to a group of investors for total net cash proceeds of approximately |
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$57.8 million; and also issued additional shares of Series A convertible preferred stock to an |
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investor upon conversion of $6.25 million of loans that the investor had made. |
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. As a result of these transactions, Light Sciences Corporation ceased to be the majority |
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shareholder and LSON began to operate as a company separate from Light Sciences Corporation. |
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Employees |
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As of August 15, 2006, 26 employees, six of whom were dedicated primarily to clinical development and |
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10 of whom were dedicated primarily to engineering and product development |
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Use of $71mm in IPO proceeds |
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• $44 million for costs of clinical trials; |
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• $2 million for preclinical costs; |
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• $4 million for costs associated with developing the ability to have drug and device produced in |
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sufficient quantities for commercial sale; and |
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• balance for working capital and other general corporate purposes, which may include costs |
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associated with establishing relationships with one or more development and commercialization |
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partners |
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========================================================== |
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Rosetta Genomics |
ROSG, C, 6 |
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microRNA diagnostic/therapeutic prdcts |
Post-IPO shrs:19mm |
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Rehovot, Israel |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
6mos June |
IPO Mkt |
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Cap (mm) |
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Loss ($mm) |
-$2.3 |
-$3.0 |
-$6 |
-$3 |
$126 |
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@$12 |
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VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
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Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
|
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Rosetta Genmcs(ROSG) |
$126 |
n/a |
-20 |
2.7 |
2.7 |
29% |
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SCORECARD |
Mgt |
Market |
Market Do- |
Proprie- |
Total |
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1-5, 5 is high |
Growth |
mination |
tary |
rating |
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20 is perfect |
2 |
2 |
0 |
2 |
6 |
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Business |
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. Seeking to develop products based on a recently discovered group of genes known as |
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microRNAs. |
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. MicroRNAs are naturally expressed, or produced, using instructions encoded in DNA and are |
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believed to play an important role in regulating protein production. |
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. Because proteins control most biological processes, ROSG believes that microRNAs have the |
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potential to form the basis of a novel class of diagnostic tests and therapies for many serious |
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illnesses, including cancer and infectious diseases. |
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Focus & process |
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. RSOG has decided to focus initial efforts on cancer, as research has indicated that microRNAs |
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play a role in various types of tumors. |
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. Has developed a discovery process that utilizes proprietary computer-based algorithms, which |
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are procedures for solving complex problems, to scan the entire genome for microRNA |
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candidates. |
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. microRNA candidates are identified, RSOG conducts one or more biological experiments using |
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tissue or body fluid samples to prove their existence, or expression, a process known as biological |
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validation. |
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Patent strategy |
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. RSOG believes that it is the first commercial enterprise to focus on the emerging microRNA |
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field, and as a result, RSOG believes it has developed an early and strong intellectual property |
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position related to the development and commercialization of research, diagnostic and therapeutic |
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products and other applications based on microRNAs. |
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. RSOG’s patent strategy is to seek broad coverage on all of identified microRNA sequences and |
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then file patent applications claiming a novel chemical structure, or composition-of-matter, on |
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individual microRNAs of commercial interest |
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. To date, has filed patent applications with claims potentially covering approximately 350 |
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biologically validated human microRNAs and 35 biologically validated viral microRNAs, which |
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constitute more than half of all biologically validated human and viral microRNAs of which |
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RSOG is aware. |
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. In addition, patent applications cover thousands of genomic sequences that we have identified |
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using our discovery process and believe are potential microRNA candidates. |
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Competition |
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. Products, if approved, will compete against existing non-microRNA-based diagnostic tests and |
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therapies. |
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. In addition, ROSG believes a significant number of non-microRNA-based diagnostic products |
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and drug candidates are currently under development and may become available for the diseases |
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ROSG is targeting or may target. |
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. In addition to the competition ROSG may face from non-microRNA-based competing products, |
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ROSG may also face competition from other companies working to develop novel products using |
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technology that competes more directly with ROSG’s microRNAs. |
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. RSOG is aware of several other companies, including some collaborators, that are working to |
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develop microRNA diagnostic and therapeutic products, including Alnylam Pharamceuticals, |
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Asuragen, Celera, Invitrogen, Isis Pharmaceuticals, Merck, Santaris and others. |
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Use of $32mm in IPO proceeds |
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. $17.0 million to fund product research and development activities |
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. $2.5 million to fund licensing and protection of intellectual property rights, including payment |
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of fees associated with the in-licensing of intellectual property and fees associated with the |
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continued prosecution of existing patent applications and the filing and prosecution of new patent |
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applications |
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. $12.6 million to fund business development, including personnel costs and legal and other |
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administrative fees related to seeking and entering into strategic business collaborations, and for |
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|
general corporate purposes, including working capital |
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=============================================================================== |
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