IPOdesktop.com Pre-IPO grading & scoring methodology
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Financial Performance & Scoring -- © 2006 Gaskins IPO Desktop/IPOdesktop |
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Pre-IPO analysis -- updated Sept 15 |
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. Business Model Rating Criteria |
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A = high growth market, potential leader; B = more competitive market; C='public venture capital' |
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. Calculations |
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. IPO Price to annualized Sales Ratio -- (Price / Sales) |
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Numerator |
Denominator |
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IPO market capitalization… |
Annualized Sales (last quarter's revenues times 4) |
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(post-IPO # of shares times mid-point of IPO price range) |
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. IPO Price to annualized Earnings (loss) -- (Price / Earnings) |
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Numerator |
Denominator |
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IPO market cap |
Annualized Earnings (loss) from the last quarter |
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========================================================================= |
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SEARCH BY COMPANY |
Use 'Edit, find on this page' to search for companies |
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for analysis |
scheduled below |
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========================================================================= |
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Summary ratios for the week of Sept 18 |
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(P/E ratios based on annualizing the June six months, unless otherwise noted) |
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VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
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Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
|
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CommVault (CVLT) |
$583 |
4.4 |
44 |
188.1 |
175.0 |
27% |
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data management software: B-, 8 |
Post-IPO shrs:42mm |
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DivX (DIVX) |
$434 |
8.0 |
36 |
3.6 |
3.7 |
27% |
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compression-decompression software: B-, 8 |
Post-IPO shrs:33mm |
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Hawkeye Hldngs (HWR) |
$856 |
4.5 |
-130 |
1.9 |
2.1 |
41% |
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3rd largest US ethanol producer: C, 7 |
Post-IPO shrs:39mm |
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Home Diagnstcs (HDIX) |
$264 |
2.4 |
41 |
2.7 |
4.3 |
38% |
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blood monitoring & supplies for diabetics: C+, 7 |
Post-IPO shrs:18mm |
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Porter Bancorp (PBIB) |
$186 |
5.1 |
14 |
1.8 |
2.1 |
21% |
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regional bank: B-, 7 |
Post-IPO shrs:7.6mm |
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Riverbed Tech (RVBD) |
$515 |
8.1 |
-25 |
6.6 |
6.8 |
13% |
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appliances to optimize bandwidth: C+, 8 |
Post-IPO shrs:64mm |
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Warner Chilcott (WCRX) |
$4,158 |
5.9 |
-32 |
3.0 |
-2.7 |
31% |
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women's healthcare & dermatology prods: C, 7 |
successor |
Post-IPO shrs:231mm |
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========================================================================= |
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SEARCH BY COMPANY |
Use 'Edit, find on this page' to search for companies |
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for analysis |
scheduled below |
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========================================================================= |
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CommVault |
CLVT, B-, 8 |
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data management software |
March 31 fiscal |
Post-IPO shrs:42mm |
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Oceanport, New Jersey |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
3mos June |
IPO Mkt |
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Rev ($mm) |
$61.0 |
$83.0 |
$109.0 |
$33.5 |
Cap (mm) |
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Gross profit |
85.2% |
85.5% |
86.2% |
85.7% |
$583 |
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Income ($mm) |
-$11.7 |
$0.5 |
$10.8 |
$3.3 |
@$14 |
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Net income % |
-19.2% |
0.6% |
9.9% |
9.9% |
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VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
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Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
|
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CommVault (CVLT) |
$583 |
4.4 |
44 |
188.1 |
175.0 |
27% |
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SCORECARD |
Mgt |
Market |
Market Do- |
Proprie- |
Total |
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1-5, 5 is high |
Growth |
mination |
tary |
rating |
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20 is perfect |
2 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
8 |
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Note: proprietary is scored a 1 because even though CVLT has patents, growth is somewhat |
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limited, or impacted, by competition from the majors, see below |
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. Also, use of proceeds is primarily to redeem preferred shares. Often preferred shares are |
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converted to common stock prior to the IPO |
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. Grade is B- instead of B, because preferred shareholders are electing to cash out |
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Business |
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. Suite of data management software applications under the QiNetix (pronounced "kinetics") |
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brand. |
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. QiNetix is specifically designed to protect and manage data throughout its lifecycle in less time, |
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at lower cost and with fewer resources than alternative solutions. |
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Markets |
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. QiNetix addresses the markets for backup and recovery, replication, archival and storage |
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management |
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. Offering customers high-performance and comprehensive solutions for data protection, business |
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continuance, corporate compliance and centralized management and reporting. |
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Industry |
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. CVLT believes that worldwide disk storage systems exceeded 1.2 million terabytes in 2004 and |
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will grow to nearly 10.6 million terabytes in 2009, representing an estimated annual growth rate of |
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approximately 52%. |
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. The driving forces for the growth of the data management software industry are the rapid growth |
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of data and the need to protect and manage that data. |
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. New government regulations, such as those issued under the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, the Health |
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Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA) and the Basel Committee on Banking |
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Supervision (Basel II), as well as company policies requiring data preservation, are expanding the |
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proportion of data that must be archived and easily accessible for future use. |
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Most of revenue from data protection sofwtare applications |
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. CVLT derives the majority of software revenue from data protection software applications, |
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which primarily include Galaxy Backup and Recovery. |
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. Sales of data protection software applications represented 90% of total software revenue for the |
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year ended March 31, 2006 and the three months ended June 30, 2006. |
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. In addition, derives substantially all of services revenue from customer and technical support |
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associated with data protection software applications. |
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Customers |
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. As of June 30, 2006, had licensed data management software to approximately 4,300 registered |
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customers across a variety of industries. |
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. Customers with a significant deployment of CommVault software includes Ace Hardware |
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Corporation, Centex Homes, Clifford Chance LLP, Cozen O’Connor, Halcrow Group Ltd., |
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Newell Rubbermaid Inc., North Fork Bank, Ricoh Company, Ltd., the United Kingdom’s |
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Department of International Development and Welch Foods Inc. Each of these customers has at |
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least 125 servers protected by CVLT software. |
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QiNetix features include |
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• high-performance data protection, including backup and recovery; |
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• disaster recovery of data; |
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• data migration and archiving; |
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• global availability of data; |
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• replication of data; |
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• creation and management of copies of stored data; |
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• storage resource discovery (the automated recognition of available storage resources allowing |
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more efficient storage and management of data) and usage tracking (tracking the use of available |
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storage resources); |
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• data classification (the creation and tracking of key data attributes to enable intelligent, |
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automated policy-based data movement and management); and |
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• management and operational reports and troubleshooting tools. |
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History |
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. Began operations in 1988 as a development group within Bell Labs and were later designated as |
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an AT&T Network Systems strategic business unit. |
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. Formed to develop automated backup, archiving and recovery products for AT&T’s internal use. |
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. The business became a part of Lucent Technologies, which was created by and later spun-off |
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from AT&T. |
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. Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette Merchant Banking and the Sprout Group funded and completed a |
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management buyout of CVLT from Lucent in May 1996 |
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. In April 1998, the board of directors and a new management team changed our strategic |
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direction. |
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. CVLT has spent the past six years developing, enhancing and introducing the following eight |
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applications as part of the QiNetix software suite built upon our unified architectural design: |
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QiNetix Galaxy Backup and Recovery (released in 2000), QiNetix DataMigrator (released in |
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2002), QiNetix QuickRecovery (released in 2002), QiNetix DataArchiver (released in 2003), |
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QiNetix StorageManager (released in 2003), QiNetix QNet (released in 2003), QiNetix Data |
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Classification (released in 2005) and QiNetix ContinuousDataReplicator (released June 2006). |
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Intellectual property |
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. As of June 30, 2006, had nine issued patents and 66 pending patent applications in the United |
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States and 13 issued patents and 55 pending patent applications in foreign countries. |
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. As of June 30, 2006, also had 11 pending European Patent applications with the European Patent |
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Office which, if allowed, may be converted into issued patents in various European Contracting |
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States. |
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. Additionally, as of June 30, 2006, had four pending patent applications under the Patent |
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Cooperation Treaty, which may be converted into foreign patent applications in various Patent |
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Cooperation Treaty Contracting States within the time periods specified in the treaty. |
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Competition |
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Primary competitors in the data management software applications market, each of which has one |
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or more products that competes with a part of or all of CVLT’s software suite: |
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• CA (formerly known as Computer Associates International, Inc.); |
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• EMC; |
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• Hewlett-Packard; |
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• IBM; and |
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• Symantec. |
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Use of $75mm in IPO proceeds from sale fo 6.15mm shares |
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(shareholders intent to offer 5mm shares) |
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. Use of proceeds, together with the estimated proceeds of $1.4 million from the concurrent |
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private, estimated borrowings of $15.0 million under a new term loan and $10.7 million of |
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existing cash and cash equivalents, |
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. To pay $101.8 million in satisfaction of amounts due on Series A, B, C, D and E preferred stock |
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upon its conversion into common stock. |
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. CVLT affliates will receive $99.8 million as a result of their holdings of Series A, B, C, D and E |
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preferred stock |
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. Which includes affiliates of Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC, which will receive $98.0 |
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million in cash upon the completion of the offering. |
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====================================================================== |
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DivX (DIVX) |
DIVX, B-, 8 |
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compression-decompression software |
Post-IPO shrs:33mm |
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San Deigo, CA |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
6mos June |
IPO Mkt |
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Rev ($mm) |
$8 |
$16 |
$33 |
$27 |
Cap (mm) |
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Gross profit % |
75% |
78% |
89% |
94% |
$434 |
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Income ($mm) |
-$4 |
-$4 |
$2 |
$6 |
@$13 |
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Net income % |
-52% |
-26% |
7% |
22% |
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VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
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Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
|
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DivX (DIVX) |
$434 |
8.0 |
36 |
3.6 |
3.7 |
27% |
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SCORECARD |
Mgt |
Market |
Market Do- |
Proprie- |
Total |
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1-5, 5 is high |
Growth |
mination |
tary |
rating |
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20 is perfect |
2 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
8 |
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Summary: high gross margin, nice top line revenue growth, but 10 customers account for 48% of |
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revenue |
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. Significant competition suggests it may be difficult for DIVX to add more OEM customers on |
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historically favorable terms |
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. It is also unlikely that the 22% after tax profit margin will continue given the competition |
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Business |
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. First product offering was a video compression-decompression software library, or codec, which |
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has been actively sought out and downloaded by consumers over 180 million times in the last four |
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years, including over 50 million times during the last twelve months. |
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. Have since built on the success of DIVX’s codec [an analog-to-digital (A/D) and digital-to |
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analog (D/A) converter for translating the signals from the outside world to digital, and back |
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again].with other consumer software, including the DivX Player application. |
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. During the second quarter of 2006, DIVX distributed over 15 million copies of the DivX Player |
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application to consumers from the website, DivX.com, which averaged over five million unique |
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visitors per month during that same period. |
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Industry overview |
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. DIVX believes three general trends—digitization, connectedness and openness—are converging |
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to create a historic transformation of content. |
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. The cost to produce, distribute and market content today is lower than it was in the past, allowing |
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a larger and more diverse group of people to create and generate revenue from quality content. |
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. Content is also becoming more international, as people around the world become engaged |
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consumers of global content and publish their own content to a global audience. |
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Sources of revenues |
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. Three of these are derived from technologies, including technology licensing to manufacturers of |
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consumer hardware devices, software licensing to independent software vendors and consumers, |
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and services relating to digital media distribution over the Internet that is made possible via the |
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deployment of DIVX’s technologies. |
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Licenses technology |
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. DIVX also licenses its technologies to consumer hardware device manufacturers and certify their |
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products to ensure the interoperable support of DivX-encoded content. |
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. Over 46 million DivX Certified hardware devices have been shipped worldwide through June 30, |
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2006, including over 10 million devices reported to DIVX by its customers during the second |
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quarter of 2006. |
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. Customers include major consumer video hardware original equipment manufacturers such as |
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Koninklijke Philips Electronics, or Philips, and Samsung Electronics. |
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. DIVX is entitled to receive a royalty for each DivX Certified device customers ship. |
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Business segments |
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. Technology licensing revenues from consumer hardware device manufacturers comprised 70%, |
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71%, 55% and 22% of total revenues in the first half of 2006 and in the full years 2005, 2004 and |
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2003, respectively |
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. License revenue is derived primarily from per-unit royalties received from original equipment |
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manufacturers. |
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. DIVX licenses its technologies to manufacturers of integrated circuits designed for consumer |
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hardware products, as well as consumer hardware device manufacturers who have licensed DIVX |
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technologies for incorporation in products such as DVD players, personal media players, portable |
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media players, and digital still cameras. |
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. Licensing arrangements typically entitle the company to receive a royalty for each product unit |
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incorporating technologies that is shipped by original equipment manufacturer partners. |
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. Though significantly smaller in magnitude than royalties from unit-based shipments, DIVX also |
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receive technology fees from integrated circuit manufacturers, original design manufacturers and |
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original equipment manufacturers for rights to include DIVX technologies in their products and |
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for DivX product certifications. |
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Cyclical |
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. Because royalties are generated by the shipment volumes of consumer hardware device |
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customers, and because sales by consumer hardware device manufacturers are highly cyclical, |
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DIVX expects revenues relating to consumer hardware devices to be highly cyclical, with second |
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quarter revenues in any calendar year being generally lower than any other quarter in that calendar |
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year. |
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Software license revenues |
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. Revenues from software licensing comprised 9%, 11%, 20% and 33% of total revenues in the |
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first half of 2006 and in the full years 2005, 2004 and 2003, respectively. |
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. While software licensing revenues as a percentage of total revenues have declined, in absolute |
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dollars such revenues have increased for each period presented. |
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. Software license revenues are derived primarily through per-unit royalties from independent |
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software vendors and to a lesser extent from direct software sales to consumers via DIVX’s |
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website. |
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. DIVX works with independent software vendors to help them incorporate DIVX technologies |
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into their video creation, editing and playback software products. |
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. Licensing arrangements typically entitle DIVX to receive a royalty for each DivX-enabled |
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software unit shipped by independent software vendor partners. |
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. DIVX also offers software to consumers via the DIVX website both for a fee and on a free or |
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trial basis. |
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Advertising and product distribution revenues |
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. Advertising and distribution revenues comprised approximately 20%, 15%, 17% and 28% of |
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total revenues in the first half of 2006 and in the full years 2005, 2004 and 2003, respectively. |
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. In absolute dollars, advertising and product distribution revenues have increased for each period |
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presented. |
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Customer concentration |
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. Derived 79%, 82%, 75% and 55% of total revenues from licensing technology in the first half of |
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2006 and in the full years 2005, 2004 and 2003, respectively. |
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. Most of revenue from the licensing of technologies to consumer hardware device manufacturers, |
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software vendors and consumers. |
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. In the first half of 2006, two customers accounted for 20% and 10%, respectively, of revenues. In |
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2005, the same two customers accounted for 15% and 13%, respectively, of revenues. In 2004, the |
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same two customers accounted for 10% and 13%, respectively, of revenues. In 2003, a third |
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customer accounted for 27% of revenues. |
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. In 2005 and in the first half of 2006, Philips accounted for approximately 13% and 10%, |
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respectively, of DIVX total revenues, and top 10 licensees by revenue accounted for |
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41% and 48%, respectively, of total revenues. |
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International sales |
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. For the first half of 2006 and for the full years 2005, 2004 and 2003, revenues outside North |
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America comprised 75%, 78%, 63% and 39%, respectively, of total revenues. |
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. In particular, a large number of such consumer hardware device manufacturers are located in |
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Asia, which is reflected in the large percentage of international revenues derived from Asia, which |
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comprised 59%, 56%, 49% and 26% of sales for the first half of 2006 and for the full years 2005, |
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2004 and 2003, respectively |
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Competition |
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. Potential competitors currently include Apple Computer, Google, Microsoft, News Corporation, |
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Sony and Yahoo!. |
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. For example, DIVX’s digital rights management technology competes with technologies from |
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companies such as Apple Computer, ContentGuard, Intertrust Technologies, Microsoft, Nagra |
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Audio, NDS Group and 4C Entity, as well as the internal development efforts of certain of |
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DIVX’s licensees. |
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. Similarly, content distribution providers, such as Amazon.com, Apple Computer, CinemaNow, |
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Google, MovieLink, Netflix and subscription entertainment services and cable and satellite |
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providers compete against DIVX content distribution services. In addition, Google, Microsoft, |
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Yahoo!, MySpace.com, a subsidiary of News Corporation, and YouTube offer online communities |
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that compete with Stage6.com. |
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. DIVX’s proprietary technologies also compete with other video compression technologies, |
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including other implementations of MPEG-4 or implementations of H.264/AVC. A number of |
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companies such as Adobe Systems, Google, Microsoft and RealNetworks offer other competing |
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video formats. |
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Intellectual property |
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Trademarks. |
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As of June 30, 2006, had 21 trademark registrations and 40 pending trademark applications in the |
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U.S. and 29 other countries for a variety of word marks, logos and slogans. |
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Copyrights. |
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. Has a significant amount of copyright-protected materials, including among other things, |
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software, codecs and textual material |
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. Has also obtained U.S. copyright registrations on 16 software products as of June 30, 2006. |
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Patents |
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. As of June 30, 2006, had one issued U.S. patent. |
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. Are in the process of applying for additional patent coverage for various aspects of technology, |
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including technologies for digital rights management, digital media formats, mobile content |
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delivery, connected devices and video encoding and decoding. |
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. As a result, as of June 30, 2006, had 31 U.S. and international patent applications on file relating |
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to various aspects of DIVX’s technology. |
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MPEG LA technology license. |
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. Has entered into a license agreement with MPEG LA, effective January 2000, under its MPEG-4 |
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Part 2 Visual Patent Portfolio. |
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. Agreement with MPEG LA will expire on December 31, 2008, unless the agreement is earlier |
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|
terminated |
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|
. Upon expiration, the license agreement may be renewed for successive five year periods upon |
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notice of renewal to DIVX by MPEG LA. |
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. For the first half of 2006 and for the full years 2005, 2004 and 2003, DIVX paid $1.5 million, |
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$2.0 million, $1.0 million and $0 to MPEG LA under this license agreement |
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Use of $87.4mm in IPO proceeds from sale of 7.5mm shares |
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|
(shareholders intend to offer 1.6mm shares) |
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|
. For working capital and general corporate purposes. |
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|
. In addition, may use a portion of the net proceeds to acquire or license products, technologies or |
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|
businesses, but currently has no agreements or commitments relating to material acquisitions or |
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|
licenses |
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========================================================= |
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Hawkeye Holdings |
HWR, C, 7 |
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|
3rd largest US ethanol producer |
restated |
restated |
proforma |
Post-IPO shrs:39mm |
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|
Iowa Falls, IA |
2004 |
2005 |
6mos June |
IPO Mkt |
||
|
Rev ($mm) |
$8.3 |
$89.0 |
$94.5 |
Cap (mm) |
||
|
Gross profit |
6.0% |
17.9% |
33.5% |
$856 |
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|
Interest expense |
$0.9 |
$65.7 |
$31.7 |
@$22 |
||
|
Interest expense % |
10% |
74% |
34% |
|||
|
Income/loss ($mm) |
-$2.2 |
-$31.0 |
-$3.3 |
|||
|
Net income/loss % |
-254% |
-47% |
-10% |
|||
|
VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
|
Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
|
|
Hawkeye Hldngs (HWR) |
$856 |
4.5 |
-130 |
1.9 |
2.1 |
41% |
|
SCORECARD |
Mgt |
Market |
Market Do- |
Proprie- |
Total |
|
|
1-5, 5 is high |
Growth |
mination |
tary |
rating |
||
|
20 is perfect |
2 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
7 |
|
|
Summary: highly leveraged, notice interest expense is about the same as the gross margin, |
||||||
|
not a profitable company |
||||||
|
Business |
||||||
|
. Third largest ethanol producer in the United States based on production capacity as reported by |
||||||
|
the Renewable Fuels Association—RFA. |
||||||
|
. Owns two of the largest ethanol production facilities in the United States and we are capable of |
||||||
|
producing aggregate ethanol output of approximately 215 MMGPY. |
||||||
|
. Intends to expand production capacity by approximately another 330 MMGPY over the next few |
||||||
|
years, by breaking ground on the third plant by October 2006, the fourth plant by March 2007, and |
||||||
|
the fifth plant in the second quarter of 2007, which will bring our total production capacity to |
||||||
|
Industry |
||||||
|
. According to the RFA, world ethanol production rose to 12 billion gallons in 2005. Fuel-grade |
||||||
|
ethanol accounted for 73% of world production. |
||||||
|
. The United States and Brazil are the world's largest producers of ethanol. According to RFA, as |
||||||
|
of August 2006, industry capacity in the United States was 4.8 billion gallons per year, with an |
||||||
|
additional 2.8 billion gallons per year of capacity under construction. |
||||||
|
. The ethanol industry in the United States consists of more than 100 production facilities and is |
||||||
|
primarily corn-based, while ethanol production in Brazil is primarily sugar cane-based. |
||||||
|
Ethanol prices are extremely volatile. |
||||||
|
. In early 2005, ethanol prices decreased due to a perceived over-supply of ethanol, which had a |
||||||
|
negative effect on operating results in the first quarter of 2005. |
||||||
|
. Since that time, ethanol prices have recovered due to increased gasoline prices, legislative |
||||||
|
changes and continued oil refining capacity shortages, resulting in an average realized price for the |
||||||
|
first six months of 2006 that is $0.56 per gallon higher than for the comparable period of the prior |
||||||
|
year. |
||||||
|
. The ethanol Bloomberg rack price rose from $1.19 per gallon in May 2005 to $1.84 per gallon at |
||||||
|
December 31, 2005, and was $2.55 per gallon at August 31, 2006. |
||||||
|
Recent Developments |
||||||
|
• In 2005, secured the right to acquire four well-located sites in Iowa, upon three of which HWR |
||||||
|
intends to build the Menlo, Ogden and Shell Rock plants. In July 2006, completed the acquisition |
||||||
|
of the site located in Menlo, Iowa. The sites are each approximately 100 acres and HWR believes |
||||||
|
are located in prime areas in Iowa for the construction of ethanol plants. |
||||||
|
• In July 2006, signed a letter of intent with AECom, a global project design and management |
||||||
|
company, to build six plants, including the Menlo, Ogden and Shell Rock plants, using technology |
||||||
|
from Delta-T, an ethanol technology provider. |
||||||
|
. Each plant is expected to take approximately 18 months to construct and is expected to cost |
||||||
|
approximately $1.25–$1.50 per gallon of capacity. |
||||||
|
Competition |
||||||
|
. Competes with Archer Daniels Midland—ADM, the largest ethanol producer in the United States |
||||||
|
with 1,070 million gallons of current annual capacity, representing 25% of total production |
||||||
|
capacity in the United States. |
||||||
|
. Also competes with other large ethanol producers such as VeraSun (230 MMGPY), Aventine |
||||||
|
(150 MMGPY), Cargill (120 MMGPY) and Abengoa (110 MMGPY). |
||||||
|
Use of $325mm in IPO proceeds |
||||||
|
. $125.0 million to redeem a portion of the 8% mandatorily redeemable preferred stock |
||||||
|
. $150.0 million to fund the growth strategy |
||||||
|
. $50.0 million to repay debt under a 2006 senior secured first lien term loan facility. |
||||||
|
============================================================ |
||||||
|
Home Diagnostics |
HDIX, C+, 7 |
|||||
|
blood monitoring & supplies for diabetics |
Post-IPO shrs:18mm |
|||||
|
Fort Lauderdale, Florida |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
6mos June |
IPO Mkt |
|
|
Rev ($mm) |
$74.0 |
$85.0 |
$100.0 |
$56.0 |
Cap (mm) |
|
|
Gross profit |
59.5% |
58.8% |
59.0% |
58.9% |
$264 |
|
|
Income ($mm) |
$7.9 |
$2.0 |
$5.9 |
$3.2 |
@$15 |
|
|
Net income % |
10.7% |
2.4% |
5.9% |
5.7% |
||
|
VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
|
Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
|
|
Home Diagnstcs (HDIX) |
$264 |
2.4 |
41 |
2.7 |
4.3 |
38% |
|
SCORECARD |
Mgt |
Market |
Market Do- |
Proprie- |
Total |
|
|
1-5, 5 is high |
Growth |
mination |
tary |
rating |
||
|
20 is perfect |
2 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
7 |
|
|
Business |
||||||
|
. Blood glucose monitoring systems and disposable supplies for diabetics. |
||||||
|
. HDIX believes it offers diabetics performance and features that are comparable to or better than |
||||||
|
competitors’ products |
||||||
|
. In most cases at a substantially lower price. |
||||||
|
Market growth |
||||||
|
. Frost & Sullivan estimates that the combined worldwide market for blood glucose monitors and |
||||||
|
test strips was approximately $6.3 billion in 2005, of which $3.7 billion was in North America, |
||||||
|
. And that the market for monitors and test strips will grow 8% per annum in North America and |
||||||
|
16% per annum outside of North America over the next five years. |
||||||
|
Branding |
||||||
|
. Market products through distribution channels in two ways, under the HDI brand, including |
||||||
|
SideKick, TrueTrack Smart System, TrackEASE Smart System and Prestige IQ, |
||||||
|
. And in a unique co-branded format through which customers market HDIX’s products under |
||||||
|
their brands alongside the HDI brands. |
||||||
|
Distribution channels |
||||||
|
• Retail pharmacies: Leading retail customers include industry leaders such as Walgreen Co., |
||||||
|
CVS Corporation and Brooks Eckerd Pharmacy. In 2005, net sales directly to the retail pharmacy |
||||||
|
customers were $20.5 million. |
||||||
|
• Domestic distributors: Domestic distributor customers include the leaders in medical products |
||||||
|
delivery, AmerisourceBergen Corporation, Cardinal Health Inc., McKesson Corporation and |
||||||
|
Invacare Corporation, which deliver HDIX’s products into food and drug retailers and mass |
||||||
|
merchandisers, home medical equipment providers and acute, primary and extended care markets. |
||||||
|
In 2005, net sales to our domestic distributor customers were $53.3 million. |
||||||
|
• Mail service: Sells products to leading mail service providers such as Apria Healthcare Group |
||||||
|
Inc., CCS Medical, Liberty Medical Supply Inc. and Lincare Holdings Inc., which supply their |
||||||
|
customers with our products by mail. In 2005, net sales to our mail service customers were $16.2 |
||||||
|
million. |
||||||
|
• International: Markets products internationally through regional distributors and have developed |
||||||
|
strong partnerships with such companies as Farmacias Ahumadas S.A. (FASA) in Latin America, |
||||||
|
SuperDrug Stores plc in the United Kingdom, Grace Medical Inc. in China and DiaCare |
||||||
|
International Pty. Ltd. in Australia. In 2005, net sales to our international customers were $10.2 |
||||||
|
million. |
||||||
|
Managed care |
||||||
|
. Also focuses marketing efforts on the managed care market. |
||||||
|
. In the past 24 months, has had success in this effort, winning multiple formulary contracts with |
||||||
|
pharmacy benefits managers, such as Caremark Rx Inc., ProCare Rx Pharmacy Care, LLC, |
||||||
|
RxAmerica L.L.C., and with state Medicaid formularies, including California, Florida, Illinois and |
||||||
|
Missouri. |
||||||
|
. HDIX’s successes and growing recognition have been further rewarded with exclusive provider |
||||||
|
status for certain regional health plans, including Molina Healthcare, Inc., Total Health Care, Inc. |
||||||
|
and Great Lakes Health Plan, Inc. |
||||||
|
Competition |
||||||
|
. Competitors include Bayer Corp., Becton Dickinson Corp., LifeScan Inc., a division of Johnson |
||||||
|
& Johnson, the MediSense Inc. and TheraSense Inc. divisions of Abbott Laboratories, and Roche |
||||||
|
Ltd. These competitors’products, like HDIX’s, use a meter and disposable test strips to test blood |
||||||
|
obtained by pricking the finger or, in some cases, the forearm. |
||||||
|
. In addition, other companies are developing or marketing continuous blood glucose testing |
||||||
|
devices and technologies that could compete with HDIX devices. |
||||||
|
. To date, the FDA has approved five continuous monitors or sensors: one by DexCom, Inc., three |
||||||
|
by Medtronic Corp. and one by Cygnus Corp., which ceased operations and sold its remaining |
||||||
|
assets to Animas Corp., a subsidiary of Johnson & Johnson. The Medtronic CGMS System Gold, |
||||||
|
the Medtronic Guardian System and the Cygnus GlucoWatch all have been approved for limited |
||||||
|
indications. |
||||||
|
. Neither the Medtronic CGMS System Gold nor the Medtronic Guardian System provide real |
||||||
|
time blood glucose measurements, but rather, in the case of the CGMS System, store values for |
||||||
|
later retrieval by a healthcare professional, or, in the case of the Guardian System, notify the |
||||||
|
patient when it detects dangerously high or low levels of blood glucose. Medtronic received FDA |
||||||
|
approval for its MiniMed Paradigm REAL-Time Insulin Pump and Continuous Glucose |
||||||
|
Monitoring System in April 2006. |
||||||
|
. The Medtronic Paradigm System measures glucose levels via an implantable sensor and |
||||||
|
transmits the data to an insulin pump every five minutes, for a period of up to three days. |
||||||
|
However, patients must still perform a confirmatory test with finger-stick measurements prior to |
||||||
|
every insulin injection. DexCom received FDA approval in March 2006 for adjunctive use of its |
||||||
|
STS Continuous Glucose Monitoring System, or STS, which also provides continuous real-time |
||||||
|
blood glucose measurements for a period of up to three days. |
||||||
|
. The system includes a small implantable sensor that continuously measures glucose levels in |
||||||
|
subcutaneous tissue and a small external receiver to which the sensor transmits glucose levels at |
||||||
|
specified intervals. |
||||||
|
. Diabetic patients using the DexCom STS are still required to calibrate the STS with finger-stick |
||||||
|
measurements twice per day to ensure reliable operation. Additionally, DexCom is developing a |
||||||
|
long-term system, which will provide continuous real-time blood glucose measurements for a |
||||||
|
period of up to one year. Others are also developing technology for long-term continuous glucose |
||||||
|
monitoring, including Abbott and Medtronic, but progress is difficult to assess. Although the |
||||||
|
introduction of these continuous blood glucose testing devices could adversely affect our business, |
||||||
|
no device has yet been approved or, to our knowledge, developed as a replacement to the finger |
||||||
|
stick testing method. |
||||||
|
. Within the last few years there have been a series of low-cost blood glucose monitoring systems |
||||||
|
introduced into the United States market, such as GlucoCheck, Easy Gluco, EZSmart, Senova, |
||||||
|
Control and GlucoLeader. Most of these systems are manufactured by companies based in Asia |
||||||
|
that have United States distribution partners. |
||||||
|
. These manufacturers offer low-cost alternatives that are being marketed primarily within the mail |
||||||
|
service, long-term care and durable medical equipment distribution channels. |
||||||
|
Use of $44.4mm in IPO proceeds from sale of 3.3mm shares |
||||||
|
(shareholders intend to offer 3.3mm shares) |
||||||
|
• $10.4 million to redeem all outstanding shares of Series F Preferred Stock |
||||||
|
• $5.8 million to complete the purchase of manufacturing equipment for new product |
||||||
|
development (out of a total purchase price of $12.6 million); |
||||||
|
• to repay outstanding indebtedness to Wachovia Bank N.A. ($2.2 million at July 31, 2006); and |
||||||
|
• balance to fund working capital and for other general corporate purposes. |
||||||
|
==================================================================== |
||||||
|
Porter Bancorp |
PBIB, B-, 7 |
|||||
|
regional bank |
Post-IPO shrs:7.6mm |
|||||
|
Louisville, KY |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
6mos June |
IPO Mkt |
|
|
Net interest income |
$26.1 |
$30.2 |
$36.4 |
$18.4 |
Cap (mm) |
|
|
Income ($mm) |
$8.4 |
$10.9 |
$14.6 |
$6.8 |
$186 |
|
|
Net income % |
32.2% |
36.1% |
40.1% |
37.0% |
@$24.5 |
|
|
VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
|
Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
|
|
Porter Bancorp (PBIB) |
$186 |
5.1 |
14 |
1.8 |
2.1 |
21% |
|
SCORECARD |
Mgt |
Market |
Market Do- |
Proprie- |
Total |
|
|
1-5, 5 is high |
Growth |
mination |
tary |
rating |
||
|
20 is perfect |
2 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
7 |
|
|
Summary: regional bank IPOing at a relatively low P/E ratio |
||||||
|
Business |
||||||
|
. Bank holding company headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky |
||||||
|
. Seventh largest independent banking organization domiciled in the state based on total assets |
||||||
|
. Operates banking offices in Louisville and 12 other Kentucky communities located along central |
||||||
|
Kentucky’s Interstate 65 corridor |
||||||
|
. As of June 30, 2006, had total assets of $1.0 billion, total loans of $814.5 million, total deposits |
||||||
|
of $812.2 million and stockholders’ equity of $75.5 million |
||||||
|
Competition |
||||||
|
. Experiences competition in the market from many other financial institutions. |
||||||
|
. There are a number of banks that offer services exclusively over the internet, such as NetBank |
||||||
|
and E*TRADE Bank, and other banks, such as Bank of America and Wells Fargo Bank that |
||||||
|
market their internet services to their customers nationwide. |
||||||
|
Use of $28mm in IPO proceeds from sale of 1.25mm shares |
||||||
|
(shareholders intend to sell 300,000 shares) |
||||||
|
. General corporate purposes, which may include, among other things, development of new |
||||||
|
banking offices in Louisville, expansion into new and in existing markets in central Kentucky and |
||||||
|
to provide additional capital to PBI Bank to support asset growth. |
||||||
|
. Also anticipates that the increase in capital will allow the company to pay off $9.5 million in |
||||||
|
notes that mature on December 31, 2008 |
||||||
|
========================================================== |
||||||
|
Riverbed Technology |
RVBD, C+, 8 |
|||||
|
appliances to optimize bandwidth |
Post-IPO shrs:64mm |
|||||
|
San Francisco, CA |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
6mos June |
IPO Mkt |
|
|
Rev ($mm) |
---- |
$2.6 |
$22.9 |
$31.8 |
Cap (mm) |
|
|
Gross profit |
---- |
38.5% |
62.4% |
65.4% |
$515 |
|
|
Income ($mm) |
-$4.0 |
-$9.8 |
-$17.1 |
-$10.3 |
@$8 |
|
|
Net income % |
---- |
-376.9% |
-74.7% |
-32.4% |
||
|
VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
|
Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
|
|
Riverbed Tech (RVBD) |
$515 |
8.1 |
-25 |
6.6 |
6.8 |
13% |
|
SCORECARD |
Mgt |
Market |
Market Do- |
Proprie- |
Total |
|
|
1-5, 5 is high |
Growth |
mination |
tary |
rating |
||
|
20 is perfect |
2 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
8 |
|
|
Summary: significant top line revenue growth, adequate gross margin, still showing |
||||||
|
significant losses, to-date, lots of competition |
||||||
|
Business |
||||||
|
. Products enhance performance of wide area networks (WANs) |
||||||
|
. Incorporated in May 2002 and shipped first Steelhead appliance in May 2004 |
||||||
|
Steelhead appliance line |
||||||
|
Utilizes proprietary software to deliver significant benefits to customers, including the ability to: |
||||||
|
. Accelerate performance of applications and access to data over the WAN; |
||||||
|
. Consolidate geographically distributed IT resources; |
||||||
|
. Reduce the need for WAN bandwidth; |
||||||
|
. Shorten storage back-up and replication time over the WAN; |
||||||
|
. Provide local storage for continued access to remote files during WAN failures; and |
||||||
|
. Improve productivity and reduce frustration for IT managers and end-users. |
||||||
|
Shipments |
||||||
|
. Began commercial shipments of products in May 2004. |
||||||
|
. Since that time, products have been sold to more than 1,000 customers worldwide, from large |
||||||
|
global organizations with hundreds or thousands of locations to smaller organizations with as few |
||||||
|
as two locations. |
||||||
|
. Sells products and support indirectly through value-added resellers (VARs) and original |
||||||
|
equipment manufacturer (OEM) partners and directly through a sales force. |
||||||
|
Intellectual property |
||||||
|
. Two United States patents for the Content-Based Segmentation Scheme (which covers aspects of |
||||||
|
the Data Streamlining) and has a United States patent ready to issue for aspects of the |
||||||
|
Transaction Accelerator system (the architectural framework of RiOS). |
||||||
|
Competition |
||||||
|
. RVBD believes it is currently the only provider of a comprehensive WDS solution. |
||||||
|
. However, a large number of vendors provide one or more of the component optimization |
||||||
|
technologies that comprise the WDS market or have made recent acquisitions in an attempt to |
||||||
|
bolster their current WAN optimization or WAFS platforms. |
||||||
|
. For example, Packeteer, a WAN optimization vendor, recently acquired Tacit Networks, a |
||||||
|
WAFS vendor. |
||||||
|
. Primary competitors include Cisco Systems (through its Actona acquisition), Juniper Networks |
||||||
|
(through its Peribit Networks acquisition), F5 Networks (through its Swan Labs acquisition), |
||||||
|
Packeteer (through its Tacit Networks acquisition) and Citrix Systems (through its Orbital Data |
||||||
|
acquisition). |
||||||
|
. Also faces competition from a large number of smaller private companies and new market |
||||||
|
entrants. |
||||||
|
. Competes with cache-based architectures, including Cisco Systems’ WAE product. Caches store |
||||||
|
copies of data in a local cache to help client-side servers avoid having to request the |
||||||
|
retransmission of the same data again across a WAN. |
||||||
|
. RVBD’s WDS architecture, which includes its Data Streamlining technology, is a substitute for |
||||||
|
caching. RVBD’s Data Streamlining technology employs sophisticated data mapping and pattern |
||||||
|
recognition techniques to minimize the amount of redundant data traversing WAN connections. |
||||||
|
RVBD’s Steelhead appliances detect requests for redundant information and send little more than |
||||||
|
the data that has actually been modified over the WAN. |
||||||
|
. In addition, caches store only the specific data objects associated with a particular caching |
||||||
|
technology. For instance, file caches only store files, while web caches only store static web |
||||||
|
objects. |
||||||
|
. RVBD’s Steelhead appliances store WAN traffic at the byte level, without regard for the |
||||||
|
application that was used or data object name. |
||||||
|
. Also competes with WAN optimization products, including Juniper’s WX appliances, which |
||||||
|
typically offer some combination of compression, TCP optimization and quality-of-service |
||||||
|
functions, in order to reduce network congestion and to more efficiently utilize bandwidth. |
||||||
|
. RVBD’s Steelhead appliances employ its Data Streamlining algorithms to remove repeat traffic, |
||||||
|
and thereby reduce network congestion and more efficiently utilize bandwidth. |
||||||
|
. Further, RVBD’s Steelhead appliances include Transport Streamlining and Application |
||||||
|
Streamlining techniques to optimize the behavior of TCP and other application protocols. |
||||||
|
. Finally, RVBD believes it competes favorably in each of the sub-segments of WAN optimization |
||||||
|
and WAFS in addition to being the only provider of a comprehensive WDS solution. |
||||||
|
Use of $57mm in IPO proceeds |
||||||
|
. For working capital and other general corporate purposes, including to finance growth, develop |
||||||
|
new products and fund capital expenditures. |
||||||
|
. In addition, RVBD may choose to repay its credit facility with Lighthouse Capital Partners V, |
||||||
|
L.P. or expand current business through acquisitions of other businesses, products or technologies. |
||||||
|
=============================================================== |
||||||
|
Warner Chilcott Hldngs |
WCRX, 7, C |
|||||
|
women's healthcare & dermatology prods |
successor |
Post-IPO shrs:231mm |
||||
|
Hamilton, Bermuda |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
6mos June |
IPO Mkt |
|
|
Rev ($mm) |
$365.0 |
$490.0 |
$515.0 |
$353.0 |
Cap (mm) |
|
|
Gross profit |
88.5% |
89.2% |
81.6% |
80.5% |
$4,158 |
|
|
Income ($mm) |
$96.0 |
$152.0 |
-$557.0 |
-$64.0 |
@$18 |
|
|
Net income % |
26.3% |
31.0% |
-108.2% |
-18.1% |
||
|
Above expenses include |
||||||
|
Amortization of intangible assets |
281 |
|||||
|
Acquired R&D in process |
38 |
52 |
233 |
122 |
||
|
Interest expense |
$7.7 |
$9.3 |
$148.0 |
$91.0 |
||
|
Interest expense $ of rev |
2.1% |
1.9% |
28.7% |
25.8% |
||
|
VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
|
Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
|
|
Warner Chilcott (WCRX) |
$4,158 |
5.9 |
-32 |
3.0 |
-2.7 |
31% |
|
SCORECARD |
Mgt |
Market |
Market Do- |
Proprie- |
Total |
|
|
1-5, 5 is high |
Growth |
mination |
tary |
rating |
||
|
20 is perfect |
2 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
7 |
|
|
Summary: highlighly leveraged, interest expense % of revenue is 25.8%, negative price-to-tangible book ratio is -2.7 -- suggesting a grade of C |
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Business |
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. Aleading specialty pharmaceutical company focused on marketing, selling, developing and |
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manufacturing branded prescription pharmaceutical products |
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. In women’s healthcare and |
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. In dermatology in the United States. |
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Competition |
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Principal competitors are in the United States and include: |
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. Hormonal Contraceptives—Johnson & Johnson (Ortho Tri-Cyclen® Lo, Ortho Evra®), Schering |
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A.G./Berlex (Yasmin®, Yaz®), Akzo Nobel N.V./Organon (Nuvaring®) and Barr |
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Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Seasonale®); |
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. Hormone Therapy—Wyeth (Premarin®, Premarin® Vaginal Cream, Prempro™, Premphase®), |
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Pfizer, Inc. (Estring®), Schering A.G./Berlex (Climara®, Menostar®) and Barr Pharmaceuticals, |
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Inc. (Cenestin®); |
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. Doryx—Medicis Pharmaceutical Corporation (Dynacin®) and Bradley Pharmaceutical |
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(Adoxa®); and |
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. Psoriasis—Galderma Laboratories, L.P. (Clobex®), Connetics Corporation (Olux® foam, |
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Luxíq® foam), Allergan, Inc. (Tazorac®). |
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. WCRX branded pharmaceutical products are or may become subject to competition from generic |
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equivalents. Ovcon, Estrace Tablets and Estrace Cream are currently not protected by patents. |
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. Potential generic entrants may also challenge WCRX patents. For example, Watson submitted an |
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abbreviated ANDA in June, 2006 seeking approval to market a generic version of Loestrin 24 Fe |
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prior to the expiration of WCRX’s patent. WCRX has filed an infringement lawsuit against |
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Watson in response to this submission. In addition, under an agreement to settle patent claims |
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against Barr relating to WCRX’s Estrostep oral contraceptive and our femhrt hormone therapy |
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product, WCRX granted Barr a non-exclusive license to launch generic versions of Estrostep and |
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femhrt six months prior to patent expiration in 2008 and 2010, respectively. |
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Use of $1.2bb in IPO proceeds |
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. Pay $470.0 million to reduce the $1,621.9 million (as of June 30, 2006) of debt outstanding |
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under the $1,790.0 million senior secured credit facility |
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. Pay $228.4 million to repurchase a portion of the $600.0 million 8 3/4% senior subordinated |
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notes due 2015 issued by Warner Chilcott Corporation |
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. Pay $462.8 million to repurchase the Preferred Shares issued by Warner Chilcott Holdings |
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Company II, Limited; and |
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. Pay $27.4 million as a termination fee to under an advisory services and monitoring agreement. |
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. Remainder of the net proceeds for general corporate purposes. |
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