IPOdesktop.com Pre-IPO grading & scoring methodology
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Financial Performance & Scoring -- © 2006 Gaskins IPO Desktop/IPOdesktop |
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Pre-IPO analysis, grading & scoring -- updated Nov 27 |
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. Business Model Rating Criteria |
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A = high growth market, potential leader; B = more competitive market; C= 'public venture capital' |
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. Calculations |
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. IPO Price to annualized Sales Ratio -- (Price / Sales) |
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Numerator |
Denominator |
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IPO market capitalization… |
Annualized Sales (last six or nine months) |
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(post-IPO # of shares times mid-point of IPO price range) |
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. IPO Price to annualized Earnings (loss) -- (Price / Earnings) |
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Numerator |
Denominator |
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IPO market cap |
Annualized Earnings (loss) from the last quarter |
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SEARCH BY COMPANY |
In your browser use 'Edit/Find' to search for companies |
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or ticker for analysis |
scheduled below |
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Summary ratios for the week of Nov 27 (IPOs not previously analyzed, scored & graded) |
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(P/E ratios based on annualizing recent results, see notes) |
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Note: two not graded, scored or analyzed |
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. Grupo Aeroportdel Centro Norte (OMAB) uses Mexican GAAP (generall accepted accounting principles) |
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. Wireless Ronin Technologies (RNIN) is for accredited investors |
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Netlist (NLST) |
NLST, C+, 7 |
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memory subsystems for server OEMs |
Post-IPO shrs:19.5mm |
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Irvine, CA |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
Sept 06* |
Sept 06** |
IPO Mkt |
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Rev ($mm) |
$100 |
$144 |
$80 |
$109 |
$44 |
Cap (mm) |
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Gross Margin % |
14% |
7% |
8% |
14% |
16% |
$156 |
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Profit (loss) ($mm)* |
($16) |
($1) |
($2) |
$3 |
$2 |
@$8 |
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Profit (loss) % |
-16% |
-1% |
-3% |
3% |
4% |
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*nine months ended Sept |
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**quarter ended Sept 30, 2006 |
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VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
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Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
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Netlist (NLST) |
$156 |
0.9 |
22 |
2.9 |
2.9 |
32% |
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SCORECARD |
Mgt |
Market |
Market Do- |
Proprie- |
Total |
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1-5, 5 is high |
Growth |
mination |
tary |
rating |
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20 is perfect |
2 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
7 |
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Summary |
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. Strong September quarter with upward momentum |
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. Small customer, but is added OEM customers |
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. Has new products in the process of being approved by OEMs |
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. Small gross suggests products are not all that proprietary |
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Business |
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. High performance memory subsystems sold to original equipment manufacturers, or OEMs, in |
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the server, high performance computing and communications markets |
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. NLST memory subsystems are incorporated into multiple platforms at International Business |
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Machines Corporation, or IBM, Dell Inc., Gateway, Inc., Lenovo Group Limited, or Lenovo, and |
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Hewlett-Packard Company. |
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Small number of customers |
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. Dell, IBM & Lenovo represented 35%, 20% & 13%, respectively, of net sales in fiscal 2005, and |
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. 36%, 41% and 2%, respectively, of net sales in the first nine months of fiscal 2006. |
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. The decline in sales to Lenovo was due to NLST's sales emphasis on high-end server |
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applications. |
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. NLST expects that Dell and IBM will continue to represent a significant percentage of net sales |
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for at least the next 12 months. |
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IBM sales grow |
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. Sales to IBM continued to grow significantly in the first nine months of fiscal 2006, driven by |
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high demand for IBM's line of blade servers that incorporates NLST's proprietary very low profile |
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memory subsystem. |
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. Sales to Dell also grew significantly as DDR2 products began to ship in volume. |
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. In addition, NLST began shipments to other leading OEMs, including Gateway and Hewlett- |
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Packard. |
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. NLST has several new products in various stages of qualification that are anticipated to be |
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incorporated into additional platforms currently in development at customers. |
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Net sales results |
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Nine months ended September 30, 2006 |
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. Net sales for the nine months ended September 30, 2006 were $109.4 million, an increase of |
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$52.9 million, or 94%, over the first nine months of fiscal 2005. |
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. $35.8 million of the increase was attributable to higher unit sales of very low profile memory |
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subsystems. |
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. In addition, DDR2 server memory subsystem sales increased by $21.1 million and DDR |
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subsystem sales decreased by $7.4 million due to customers transitioning to DDR2 architectures |
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. Sales of memory subsystems used to control redundant arrays of independent disks (RAIDs) |
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commenced late in the second quarter of fiscal 2006 and contributed $10.2 million to the increase |
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in revenues. |
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. Finally, sales of laptop and desktop personal computer, or PC, memory subsystems decreased |
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$9.8 million as NLST focused on sales of higher margin server memory subsystems. |
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Nine months ended September 30, 2005 |
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. Net sales for the year ended December 31, 2005 were $79.9 million, a decrease of $63.8 million, |
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or 44%, from the year ended January 1, 2005. |
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. This decrease was due to a $72.6 million decrease in net sales to one key customer, partially |
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offset by the commencement of shipments of very low profile subsystem during fiscal 2005. |
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. The decrease in net sales to the key customer was attributable to its shift in memory technology |
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from DDR to DDR2. |
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. NLST's sales decreased significantly as the key customer delayed qualifying new suppliers |
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during this transition. |
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History |
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. Commenced operations in September 2000 and initially focused on memory subsystems for the |
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telecommunications markets. |
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. Beginning in the second quarter of 2001, shifted focus to the server and high performance |
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computing markets, due in large part to the telecommunications market downturn. |
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. In 2002, we became a qualified supplier for RLX Technologies, Inc., a blade server |
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manufacturer. |
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. One of the products initially developed for RLX, a proprietary 2-inch form factor, 1-gigabyte |
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memory subsystem, led to the development of a range of additional memory subsystems |
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Employees |
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As of September 30, 2006, had 115 full-time employees |
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Intellectual property |
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. As of September 30, 2006, had four patents issued and eleven patent applications pending |
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. Assuming that they are properly maintained, one of the issued patents will expire in 2022 and the |
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other three will expire in 2024. |
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Competition |
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. Products are primarily targeted for the server, high performance computing and communications |
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markets. |
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. Primary competitors are memory module providers such as SimpleTech, Inc., SMART Modular |
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Technologies, Inc., and Viking Interworks, a division of Sanmina-SCI Corporation. |
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. Also faces competition from DRAM manufacturers in a limited range of applications |
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Use of $45mm in IPO proceeds |
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o $6.0 million to establish a manufacturing facility in China; |
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o $5.0 million to reduce outstanding borrowings under revolving line of credit; |
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o$1.8 million to repay outstanding indebtedness as required under term loan agreement |
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o remainder for general corporate purposes, including funding our working capital requirements, |
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increasing research and development activities and sales and marketing resources to enter new |
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markets, and acquiring complementary businesses, products or technologies. |
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