|
Mastercard (MA) |
MA, C+, 7 |
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|
credit & debit cards for financial institutions |
Post-IPO shrs:135mm |
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|
Purchase, New York |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
March 3mos |
IPO Mkt |
|
|
Revenue ($mm) |
$2,231 |
$2,593 |
$2,938 |
$738 |
Cap (mm) |
|
|
Operating income % |
-27% |
13% |
13% |
25% |
$5,603 |
|
|
Net income ($mm) |
($391) |
$238 |
$267 |
$127 |
@$41.5 |
|
|
Net income % |
-18% |
9% |
9% |
17% |
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|
EBITDA % of revenue |
4% |
5% |
6% |
7% |
||
|
Gross $ Value (mm) |
1,281,000 |
1,467,000 |
1,661,000 |
426,000 |
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|
Processed transactions (mm) |
9,943 |
12,152 |
13,733 |
3,521 |
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|
Ave transaction value |
$129 |
$121 |
$121 |
$121 |
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|
% revenue from operations |
66% |
63% |
67% |
63% |
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|
% revenue from assessments |
34% |
37% |
36% |
37% |
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|
VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
|
Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
|
|
Mastercard (MA) |
$5,603 |
1.9 |
11 |
2.9 |
2.9 |
46% |
|
SCORECARD |
Mgt |
Market |
Market Do- |
Proprie- |
Total |
|
|
1-5, 5 is high |
Growth |
mination |
tary |
rating |
||
|
20 is perfect |
2 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
7 |
|
|
VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price |
|
Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
May 23 |
|
|
Mastercard (MA) |
$5,603 |
1.9 |
11 |
2.9 |
2.9 |
|
|
Capital One (COF) |
$24,980 |
2.0 |
7 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
$82.30 |
|
American Express Co. (AXP) |
$64,430 |
2.5 |
18 |
5.9 |
5.9 |
$52.22 |
At 11 times March 31 quarter (annualized) earnings it appears that investors can't go
wrong on a company this big and branded, even though there are significant risks to their
growth, including the following
Risk summary
1. No more special assessments
and it's not clear what the that impact will be because assessments (in total) account for
about 37% of revenues
2. Debit card growth in the US is questionable
although today (May 23) MA added a college-savings debit card, that will work in 23,000
grocery stores & drugstores, 14,000 gas stations and 8,000 restaurants
3. More competition
"MA issuers are now permitted to issue general purpose credit or debit cards in the
United States on any other general purpose card network (such as American Express or
Discover). This may cause MA members to issue fewer cards with our brand and to enter
into arrangements with our competitors to issue cards, thereby reducing the volume of
transactions that we process, decreasing our revenues
"A number of our large customers, including Bank of America, Citibank, HSBC, USAA
and GE Finance, have begun to issue or have announced that they will issue American
Express or Discover-branded cards."
"Interchange fees, which represent a sharing of payment system costs among the financial
institutions participating in a four-party payment card system such as ours, are generally the
largest component of the costs that acquirers charge merchants in connection with the acceptance of payment cards.
" Regulators are seeking to reduce these costs through regulatory action.
5. Donation of Stock is unusual and cash donations impact other shareholders
. A leading global payment solutions company that provides a variety of services in
support of the credit, debit and related payment programs of nearly 25,000 financial
institutions.
. Manages a family of well-known, widely accepted payment card brands, including
MasterCard®, MasterCard Electronic™, Maestro® and Cirrus®, which MA licenses to
these financial institutions. As part of managing these brands, MA also provides financial
institution customers with a sophisticated set of information and transaction processing
services and establish and enforce rules and standards surrounding the use of our
payment card system.
. Generates revenues from the fees that MA charges customers for providing these
transaction processing and other payment-related services (operations fees) and by
assessing customers based on the dollar volume of activity on the cards that carry our
brands (assessments).
Reasons for revenue growth & expectations
. "Higher gross usage on cards carrying our brands for goods and services, a larger
number of transactions processed by MasterCard, higher cross-border travel by
cardholders using our cards and certain pricing changes that went into effect on April 1,
‘2005."
. "The pricing changes, including implementing new fees, increasing existing fees or
modifying our fee calculation methodology accounted for approximately 5% of net
revenue growth in 2005 and in the first three months of 2006."
. "We review our pricing on a regular basis and do not anticipate significant pricing
increases in 2006. As a result, we do not expect the same level of revenue growth in
‘2006 as we experienced in 2005."
"At the time of this offering, we intend to donate 13,496,933 newly-issued shares of our
Class A common stock and cash to The MasterCard Foundation, a private charitable
foundation incorporated in Canada. In connection with this donation we expect to record
an expense that is equal to the aggregate value of the cash and shares we are donating,
which expense will generally not be deductible for tax purposes. As a result of this
expense, we expect to record a significant net loss in the second quarter of 2006 and a
net loss for the 2006 fiscal year."
"For the full year ended 2005 and the three months ended March 31, 2006, net revenues
earned from JPMorgan Chase and its affiliates were approximately $319 million, or 11%
of total net revenues, and $82 million or 11% of total net revenues, respectively."
RISKS
1. No more special assessments
"Following the offering transactions, we will no longer have the right to impose special
assessments upon the members of MasterCard International, which could leave MA
exposed to significant losses that could materially and adversely affect results of
operations, cash flow and financial condition, or, in certain circumstances, even cause
MA’s to become insolvent, and result in a significant reduction in the value, or the
complete loss, of your investment.
"Due to the loss of MasterCard International’s right to impose special assessments upon
its members in connection with this offering, Standard & Poor’s Rating Services expects
to lower MA’s counterparty credit ratings from A-/A-2 with negative outlook to BBB+/A-2
with stable outlook and subordinated debt rating from BBB+ with negative outlook to BBB
with stable outlook. Until the completion of this offering, MA’s existing ratings will remain
on credit watch with negative outlook. The expected downgrading will result in an
increase of interest expense if borrowings were necessary under our credit facility. In
addition, further downgrading of our credit ratings by Standard & Poor’s Rating Services
or by any other rating agency could materially and adversely affect our future ability to
obtain funding or materially increase the cost of any additional funding.
More on lowered credit rating
. Due to Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services’ (S&P) assessment of MasterCard’s
vulnerability to legal risk, on May 16, 2003, S&P lowered MasterCard’s counterparty
credit rating to A-/A-2, subordinated debt rating to BBB+ and placed MasterCard on
negative outlook.
. Following the announcement of this offering, S&P placed MA’s on credit watch with
negative implications.
. Upon completion of the initial public offering, S&P expects to lower our counterparty
credit ratings from A-/A-2 to BBB+/A-2 and our subordinated debt rating from BBB+ to
BBB, both with stable outlook.
2. Debit card growth in the US is questionable
If MA is unable to grow its debit business, particularly in the United States, it may fail to
maintain and increase our revenue growth.
In recent years, MA believes that industry-wide offline and online debit transactions have
grown more rapidly than credit or charge transactions. However, in the United States, MA
believes that transactions involving MA brands account for a smaller share of all offline,
signature-based debit transactions than they do credit or charge transactions. In addition,
many of competitors process a greater number of online, PIN-based debit transactions at
the point of sale than MA does, since MA’s Maestro brand has relatively low market
penetration in the United States. MA may not be able to increase its market penetration
for debit transactions in the United States since many of competitors have long-standing
and strong market positions. MA may also be impacted adversely by any tendency
among U.S. consumers or financial institutions to migrate from offline, signature-based
debit transactions to online, PIN-based transactions, because the latter types of
transactions are more likely to be processed by other ATM/debit point-of-sale networks.
In addition, MA generally earns higher revenues on point-of-sale purchase transactions
than on cash access transactions, and on domestic credit and offline debit transactions
than on comparable online debit transactions.
3. More competition
MA has repealed its Competitive Programs Policy as a result of a final judgment in
litigation with the U.S. Department of Justice, and our business may suffer as a result.
"Based on a final judgment of our litigation with the U.S. Department of Justice, in
October 2004, our CPP, which prohibited financial institutions participating in our system
from issuing competing proprietary payment cards, became unenforceable and was
subsequently repealed. As a result, MA issuers are now permitted to issue general
purpose credit or debit cards in the United States on any other general purpose card
network (such as American Express or Discover).
This may cause MA members to issue fewer cards with our brand and to enter into
arrangements with our competitors to issue cards, thereby reducing the volume of
transactions that we process, decreasing our
revenues.
"A number of our large customers, including Bank of America, Citibank, HSBC,
USAA and GE Finance, have begun to issue or have announced that they will issue
American Express or Discover-branded cards." Accordingly, the repeal of the CPP
may have a material adverse effect on MA’s business, revenue and profitability.
4. Legal and Regulatory Risks
. "Interchange fees, which represent a sharing of payment system costs among the
financial institutions participating in a four-party payment card system such as ours, are
generally the largest component of the costs that acquirers charge merchants in
connection with the acceptance of payment cards.
. "Typically, interchange fees are paid by the merchant bank (the acquirer) to the
cardholder bank (the issuer) in connection with transactions initiated with our payment
system’s cards. Interchange fees, including MasterCard’s default interchange fees
(MIFs), are subject to increasingly intense regulatory scrutiny worldwide as they have
increased in recent years and as card-based forms of payment have become relatively
more important to local economies.
. "Regulators are seeking to reduce these costs through regulatory action. For example:
‘-- In the European Union, the European Commission has issued a Statement of
Objections challenging MasterCard’s cross-border MIF under European Union
competition rules and has recently stated that it intends to issue a supplemental
statement of objections in the near future. If we do not obtain a favorable ruling, the
European Commission could order MA’s to change the manner in which MasterCard
calculates its cross-border MIF.
‘--In the United Kingdom the Office of Fair Trading (OFT) issued a decision on September
6, 2005 concluding that MasterCard’s U.K. MIFs contravene U.K. and European Union
competition law. If this decision is upheld on appeal, it could have a significant adverse
impact on the revenues of MasterCard’s U.K. members and on MasterCard’s competitive
position and overall business in the U.K. In addition, the OFT has stated that it will
commence a new investigation of MasterCard’s current U.K. MIFs and, if it determines
that they contravene U.K. and European Union competition law, it will issue a new
decision and possibly levy fines accruing from the date of its first decision. This new
investigation will examine whether the new methodology for setting U.K. MIFs adopted by
MasterCard in November 2004—in connection with which MasterCard withdrew the
authority of the U.K. members to set domestic MIFs and related fees and conferred such
authority exclusively on MasterCard’s President and Chief Executive Officer
‘—contravenes applicable law.
‘-- In Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia has enacted regulations controlling the
costs that can be considered in setting interchange fees for four-party payment card
systems such as ours, but do not regulate the merchant discount charged by proprietary
end-to-end networks (such as those offered by American Express or Discover), which
have already benefited from these regulations.
Interchange fees are also being reviewed in a number of other jurisdictions, including
Colombia, Mexico, New Zealand, Poland, Portugal, Norway, Sweden, Brazil, Hungary
and Spain. We believe that regulators are increasingly adopting a coordinated approach
to interchange matters and, as a result, developments in any one jurisdiction may
influence regulators’ approach to interchange in other jurisdictions. In the United States,
interchange fees have also been the topic of increased congressional and regulatory
interest. In particular, the U.S. House of Representatives has passed a bill that would
commission a study by the Federal Trade Commission of the role of interchange in
alleged price gouging at gas stations. In February 2006, the Energy and Commerce
Committee of the U.S. House of Representatives held a hearing on interchange fees.
Also, the general topic of interchange fees has been raised in hearings and other forums,
including conferences held by various Federal Reserve banks. Individual state
legislatures in the United States are also reviewing interchange fees. For instance,
legislators in the states of Washington, Tennessee and Kentucky have proposed bills that
would limit or cap interchange fees. Finally, the Merchants Payment Coalition, a coalition
of trade associations representing businesses that accept credit and debit cards, is
mounting a challenge to interchange fees in the United States by seeking legislative and
regulatory intervention.
In addition
"In addition, merchants are seeking to reduce interchange fees through litigation. In the
United States, merchants have filed over forty class-action suits alleging that our
interchange fees violate federal antitrust laws. These suits allege, among other things,
that MasterCard’s purported setting of interchange fees constitutes horizontal price-fixing
between and among MasterCard, Visa and their member banks in violation of Section 1
of the Sherman Act, which prohibits contracts, combinations or conspiracies that
unreasonably restrain trade. The suits seek treble damages in an unspecified amount,
attorney’s fees and injunctive relief. MA is devoting substantial management and
financial resources to the defense of MIFs and to the other legal and regulatory
challenges MA faces.
5. Donation of Stock is unusual and cash donations impact other shareholders
MA expects to record a significant net loss for the second quarter and full year of 2006 as
a result of the donation of shares of our Class A common stock and cash to The
MasterCard Foundation, and we may make additional cash donations to The MasterCard
Foundation to allow it to make charitable disbursements during the first four years of its
operations.
At the time of this offering, MA intends to donate 13,496,933 newly-issued shares of the
new Class A common stock, representing approximately 10% of equity, to The
MasterCard Foundation, a private charitable foundation incorporated in Canada.
MA also expects to donate an estimated $40 million in cash to the Foundation in support
of its operating expenses and charitable disbursements for the first four years of its
operations, and we may make additional cash contributions to the Foundation during and
after this period.
Because the Foundation’s operations are currently being established, the overall size and
timing of MA’s expected initial cash donation have not been finally determined.
Use of $2.43bb in IPO proceeds
. $1.78bb to redeem buyback stock from shareholders; $729mm* (30%) to affiliates of the
underwriters
. $650,000 to increase capital, defend against legal and regulatory challenges, expand
role in targeted geographies and higher growth segments of the global payments industry
and for other general corporate purposes
*$729mm to underwriters
"Certain of the underwriters, including J.P. Morgan Securities Inc., Citigroup Global
Markets Inc., HSBC Securities (USA) Inc., Harris Nesbitt Corp., Santander Investment
Services S.A., KeyBanc Capital Markets, a division of McDonald Investments Inc.,
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., Cowen & Co., LLC, ABN AMRO Rothschild LLC, Barclays
Capital Inc., Calyon Securities (USA) Inc., Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC, ING
Financial Markets LLC, Mitsubishi UFJ Securities International plc, Mizuho International
plc and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, are members or affiliates of members of
MasterCard International and, based on an initial public offering price per share of $41.50
and assuming no exercise of the underwriters’ option to purchase additional shares,
collectively will receive approximately 30% of the proceeds used for the redemption of
Class B common stock described above. In addition, several of the underwriters or their
affiliates also perform other services for us"