137 archived Pre-IPO
reports Jan 1 to Aug 17, 2007 plus more
> Includes VMware
> Grading,
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IPO Performance
PerformanceLast 109
IPOs from Jan 1, 07 to July 23, 2007 > Condensed
> Showing
pre-IPO grade/score & more . Range is +141% to -47% . 2
to 1 advance/decline . Average IPO +17%
. Nasdaq +11% for the same time period
Price/TradeCNBC Power Lunch SPACs,
Special Purpose Acquistion Cos
> GT Solar
shares fall as much as 15 percent in debut (Reuters)
Traded Thursday, July24 -12%GT Solar InternationalSOLR
> Equipment for solar energy .
$16.50, mid-range, $500mm
. Pre-IPO grade/score: C+, 7 > Private Equity
bailout...
...analyst comment: 100% of $500mm in IPO proceeds to the private
equity group that purchased the company January 1, 2006. Plus a
$90 million dividend was paid to the private equity group June 30,
2008, pre-IPO. That's almost $600mm cashout via an IPO, quite
unusual in this market. > SOLR
Analyst Report
Price-to-book value is 1500, very high. Price-to-tangible book value is
-60. . A lower positive ratio is better
-12% Real Goods Solar RSOL
solar energy systems integrator
. $10, range bottom, $55mm
. Pre-IPO
grade/score: C+, 6
Traded Thursday, May 1, 2008 +3.4% Pioneer SW
Energy L.P. PSE
to acquire oil & gas properties in Texas
. $19, range bottom, 8.25mm units
. $157mm
. Pre-IPO grade/score: C+, 6
EDITORIAL
> Most professional money managers who manage other people’s money
simply will not even consider buying a small OTCBB or pink sheet
company that is not NASDAQ & Sarbanes-Oxley compliant, and most are
not
> The intent of Sarbanes-Oxley & NASDAQ corporate governance
compliance is to minimize Enron-type situations where shareholders are
harmed
> NASDAQ corporate governance requirements address:
. Independent Directors, Audit Committees
. Conflicts of Interest, Code of Conduct
. Shareholder Approval, Shareholder Meetings
. Stockholder Voting Rights, Quorum
. Solicitation of Proxies, Distribution of Annual and Interim Reports
> Sarbanes-Oxley violations & penalties include
. Improperly constituted board of directors -- nullifies prior board
decisions
. Improperly certified 10K’s and 10Q’s, especially with regard to
financial control assertions, loans to officers & directors and
other assertions . S-O violations can and do result in
actual prison terms & fines.
Banks
need Visa's IPO
proceeds
to replenish capital
. National City in
Cleveland has about a third of its
loans in these (debt challenged) sectors, and Regions Financial, in
Birmingham, Ala., a bit less than half.
. Substantial losses would quickly erode capital.
. At 6.5%, National City's tier-one capital -- a measure of a bank's
financial health -- is only half a percentage point above the
regulatory minimum,
.Although the bank should get a $490
million windfall from selling part of its stake in Visa when the
card issuer goes public
source: Wall Street Journal, March 13, 2007
Traded Tuesday, Jan 29, 2008 -3%
ATA ATAI
In China, computer-based testing& test preparation
. $9.50 range bottom, $46mm
. Pre IPO grade/score: C+, 7 +0%
Cascal B.V. HOO
water/wastewater services in 8 countries
. $12 bottom of reduced range (original range was $17-$19)
. $144mm
. Pre IPO grade/score: C+, 6
+1%
ReneSola SOL
Chinese mfg of solar cell silicon wafers
. $13 under range, $130mm
(already trades on the London AIM)
. Pre IPO grade/score: C+, 7
-2% Chimera Investment CIM
Mortgage REIT
. $15 (forecasted), $500mm
. Pre-IPO grade/score: C, 6 Traded Thurs Nov 15 +.00%
EnergySolutions ES
nuclear services
. $23 above range, $690mm
. Pre-IPO grade/score: C+, 8 Traded
Wed, Nov 14, 2007 +.00%
EnteroMedics ETRM
herapeutic device for obesity
. $8 under range, $40mm
. Pre-IPO grade/score: C, 6
+39%
MSCI MXB
Morgan Stanley analytics spinoff
. $18 above initial range, $252mm . Pre-IPO grade/score: C+, 7 +22%
Virtual Radiologic VRAD
remote diagnostic services
. $17 mid-range, $68mm
. Pre-IPO grade/score: C, 6 Och-Ziff
(OZM),
Blackstone (BX) > IPOHardball! video > IPOHardball! audio MP3 Traded Wed, Nov 14, 2007 -29% Och-Ziff Cap Mgt OZM (1) OZM Master Fund underperforms S&P500
. OZM's master fund is up 16.6% since inception but it started with a
small base.
. OZM's lead fund's performance over a 1, 3 & 5 year period is
significantly less than the S&P500.
. On the other hand their assets have increased 33% since December 31,
2006 so they are great salesmen.
. However, we believe their dismal performance relative to the S&P
over the last 1, 3 & 5 years will come back to bite them.
(2) Money managers do lose assets
Fortress FIG
> Assets under management (AUM) declined 7.9% in one quarter, 31.6%
annualized decline
> AUM totaled $39.9 billion at the end of the third quarter (Sept),
down from $43.3 billion at the end of the second quarter (June).
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