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Financial Performance & Scoring -- © 2007 Gaskins IPO Desktop/IPOdesktop |
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Pre-IPO analysis, grading & scoring -- updated April 28 |
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. Business Model Rating Criteria |
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A = high growth market, potential leader; B = more competitive market; C= 'public venture capital' |
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. Calculations |
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. IPO Price to annualized Sales Ratio -- (Price / Sales) |
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Numerator |
Denominator |
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IPO market capitalization… |
Annualized Sales (based on recent results) |
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(post-IPO # of shares times mid-point of IPO price range) |
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. IPO Price to annualized Earnings (loss) -- (Price / Earnings) |
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Numerator |
Denominator |
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IPO market cap |
Annualized Earnings (loss) from the last quarter |
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=================== |
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SEARCH BY COMPANY |
In your browser use 'Edit/Find' to search for companies |
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or ticker for analysis |
scheduled below |
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=================== |
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April 30 week IPO schedule |
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|
VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
|
Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
|
|
Acorn International ATV |
$405 |
2.1 |
101 |
2.1 |
2.3 |
26% |
|
Chinese infomercials & direct mail: C+, 7 |
Post-IPO shrs: 30m |
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|
AMC Entertainment AC |
$2,774 |
1.2 |
-23 |
2.5 |
-2.3 |
4.3% |
|
411 theaters: AMC & Loews brands: C+, 7 |
Post-IPO shrs: 146m |
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|
Cavium Networks CAVM |
$418 |
9.4 |
-174 |
5.4 |
5.5 |
16% |
|
semi-conductors for networks: C+, 7 |
Post-IPO shrs: 38m |
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|
Interactive Brkrs IBKR |
$10,000 |
8.0 |
14 |
3.6 |
3.6 |
5% |
|
Greenwich, CT: B-, 8 |
Post-IPO shrs: 400m |
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|
NeurogesX (NGSX) |
$175 |
n/a |
-6 |
3.4 |
3.3 |
32% |
|
biopharma pain management: C, 6 |
Post-IPO shrs: 12.5m |
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|
Qiao Xing-Mobile (QXM) |
$683 |
3.0 |
18 |
2.9 |
2.7 |
32% |
|
Mobile handsets: C+, 7 |
Post-IPO shrs: 52.5m |
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=================== |
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April 30wk financials, analysis, grading, scoring |
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Acorn International |
ATV, C+, 7 |
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|
Chinese infomercials & direct mail |
Post-IPO shrs: 30m |
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|
Shanghai, China |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
IPO Mkt |
||
|
Rev ($mm) |
$95 |
$170 |
$196 |
Cap (mm) |
||
|
Gross margin % |
63% |
59% |
63% |
$405 |
||
|
Profit (loss) |
$15 |
$8 |
$4 |
@$13.5 |
||
|
Profit (loss) % |
15% |
4.7% |
2% |
|||
|
VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
|
Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
|
|
Acorn International ATV |
$405 |
2.1 |
101 |
2.1 |
2.3 |
26% |
|
SCORECARD |
Mgt |
Market |
Market Do- |
Proprie- |
Total |
|
|
1-5, 5 is high |
Growth |
mination |
tary |
rating |
||
|
20 is perfect |
2 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
7 |
|
|
7.7mm American Depositary Shares |
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|
representing 23.1mm shares |
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|
Taxation |
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|
. Incorporated in the Cayman Islands and China DRTV is a BVI company and is not subject to |
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|
taxes in those jurisdictions. |
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|
. Other subsidiaries and affiliated companies are PRC companies. |
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|
. In addition to usual statutory taxes, subsidiaries and affiliated companies are subject to a 17% |
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|
value added tax, or VAT, on sales in accordance with relevant PRC tax laws. |
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|
. VAT taxes payable are accounted for through the balance sheet and do not have an income |
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|
statement effect. |
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|
. The usual statutory income tax rate applicable to PRC companies is 33% |
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|
Expects to report for the March quarter |
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|
o Total net revenues in the range of $67.7 million to $69.5 million, compared to $57.5 million in |
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|
the quarter ended March 31, 2006; |
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|
o Gross profit in the range of $36.0 million to $37.6 million, compared to $32.0 million in the |
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|
quarter ended March 31, 2006; |
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|
o Income from operations in the range of $5.8 million to $6.2 million (including approximately |
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|
$1.3 million in anticipated share-based compensation expenses), compared to $4.6 million in the |
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|
quarter ended March 31, 2006; and |
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|
o Net income in the range of $6.8 million to $7.3 million (including approximately $1.5 million in |
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|
investment gains), compared to $5.4 million in the quarter ended March 31, 2006. |
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|
Business |
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|
> leading integrated multi-platform marketing company in China |
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|
> Two primary sales platforms: |
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|
. Direct sales platform and |
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|
. Nationwide distribution network |
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|
Operations |
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|
Operates the largest TV direct sales business in China in terms of revenues and TV air time |
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|
purchased according to Euromonitor International (Asia) Pte Ltd., or Euromonitor. |
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|
. ATV believes it was one of the first companies in China to use TV direct sales programs, often |
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|
referred to as TV infomercials, in combination with a nationwide distribution network to market |
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|
and sell products and services to consumers |
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|
. In 2006, also began using the TV direct sales platform to promote and sell third-party branded |
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|
products and services pursuant to joint sales arrangements and marketing services arrangements. |
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|
Nationwide distribution network |
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|
. Vertically integrated direct sales operations, which include product development, TV and other |
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|
direct sales and marketing, call center operations, and order fulfillment and delivery, combined |
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|
with ATV's nationwide distribution network, allow it, according to ATV, to effectively reach |
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|
consumers and maximize sales throughout China. |
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|
. ATV's nationwide distribution network extends across all provinces and allows ATV to reach |
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|
over 20,000 retail outlets covering nearly all of the cities and counties in China. |
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|
. Sales generated through the nationwide distribution network accounted for 54.9% and 45.3% of |
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|
net revenues in 2005 and 2006, respectively. |
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|
Competition |
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|
Because of its integrated vertical business model, ATV faces competition from the following |
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|
companies operating in the value chain: |
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|
o Other TV direct sales companies operating in China with generally similar business models to, |
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|
including Pacific Media, China SevenStar and Smile TV (Chi Ma Ao); |
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|
o TV home shopping companies that operate on one or two TV shopping channels in a single |
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|
province such as Oriental CJ Home Shopping, GS Chongqing Home Shopping and GD Hyundai |
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|
Home Shopping, as well as TVSN, which operates on multiple TV channels; |
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|
o Domestic and international sellers of consumer branded products that sell their products in |
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|
China. For example, ATV's Ozing electronic learning devices compete with electronic learning |
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|
devices under the BBK, e100, Noah and other brands, and ATV's cell phone products compete |
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|
with similar products sold by local and international cell phone manufacturers; |
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|
o Traditional retailers and distributors, as well as direct marketers, such as Avon, operating in |
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|
China |
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|
o Other Internet and e-commerce companies in China that offer consumer products online via an |
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|
Internet platform, including eBay's China site, Alibaba's Tao Bao, and Dang Dang. |
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|
o In addition, large multi-national home shopping companies, |
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|
. Such as QVC, may enter the China market directly or indirectly. |
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|
. Entry by these players becomes more likely if existing PRC restrictions on content, number of |
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|
advertising hours per day and foreign ownership of TV stations are relaxed. |
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|
result in substantial cost and diversion of resources and management attention." |
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|
Use of $80mm in IPO proceeds from sale of 6.7mm shares |
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|
(shareholders intend to sell 1mm shares) |
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|
o $25 million to increase our purchases of, and pre-payments for, TV advertising time |
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|
o $10 million to build product and service brands, expand sales and marketing for distribution |
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|
sales, and further strengthen business management systems and infrastructure within the |
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|
nationwide distribution network; |
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|
o $10 million for product and service development, including upgrades of existing products and |
||||||
|
services and development of new products and services; |
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|
o $10 million to enhance and upgrade technology and other business infrastructure and platforms, |
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|
as well as customer data mining capabilities; |
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|
o $20 million to explore and strengthen alternative direct sales platforms, such as dedicated TV |
||||||
|
home shopping channels, catalog sales and Internet-based direct sales; and |
||||||
|
o balance to fund capital expenditures, working capital and for other general corporate purposes. |
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|
=================== |
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|
AMC Entertainment |
AC, C+, 7 |
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|
411 theaters: AMC & Loews brands |
Post-IPO shrs: 146m |
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|
Kansas City, MO |
2006 |
IPO Mkt |
||||
|
Rev ($mm) |
$2,380 |
Cap (mm) |
||||
|
Operating expenses |
98% |
$2,774 |
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|
Profit (loss) |
-$123 |
@$7.5 |
||||
|
Profit (loss) % |
-5% |
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|
EBITDA |
$392 |
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|
EBITDA % of reve |
16% |
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|
VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
|
Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
|
|
AMC Entertainment AC |
$2,774 |
1.2 |
-23 |
2.5 |
-2.3 |
4.3% |
|
SCORECARD |
Mgt |
Market |
Market Do- |
Proprie- |
Total |
|
|
1-5, 5 is high |
Growth |
mination |
tary |
rating |
||
|
20 is perfect |
2 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
7 |
|
|
(SEC filing under Marquee Holdings) |
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|
Compare & Contrast |
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|
VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Annual |
|
Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
div rate |
|
|
Regal Entmnt (RGC) @$21.30 |
$3,170 |
1.2 |
37 |
-143 |
-13 |
5.6% |
|
AMC Entertainment AC |
$2,774 |
1.2 |
-23 |
2.5 |
-2.3 |
4.3% |
|
Cinemark Holdings (CNK) |
$2,014 |
1.2 |
-575 |
2.2 |
-3.0 |
4% |
|
NCM (NCMI) @$26.47 |
$1,100 |
5.0 |
-105 |
-1.6 |
-1.6 |
n/a |
|
*AC is scheduled for April 30wk |
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|
Theaters/ |
Screens |
Screens/ |
Market cap |
Mkt Cap |
Price/ |
|
|
Screens |
Theater |
per theater |
per screen |
EBITDA |
||
|
Regal Entertmnt (RGC) |
539 |
6403 |
12 |
$5,881,262 |
$495,080 |
6.8 |
|
AMC Entertainment AC |
382 |
5340 |
14 |
$7,261,780 |
$519,476 |
7.1 |
|
Cinemark Holdings (CNK) |
396 |
4488 |
11 |
$5,085,859 |
$448,752 |
17.4 |
|
NCM (NCMI) |
1,113 |
14,081 |
13 |
$988,320 |
$78,119 |
-212 |
|
Notice: |
EBITDA |
|||||
|
Only RGC is profitable, and RGC pays the highest dividend |
Company |
% of Rev |
||||
|
CNK's price-to-sales ratio is the same as RGC, but RBC is profitable |
RGC |
17.8% |
||||
|
EBITDA |
AC |
16.5% |
||||
|
. CNK is expensive in terms of the Price-to-EBIDTDA multiple, relative to RGC & AC |
CNK |
7.2% |
||||
|
. CNK's EBITDA % of revenues is 30% to 40% of RGC's & AC's |
NCMI |
-2.4% |
||||
|
Dividend policy |
||||||
|
. $0.82 per share (or a quarterly rate initially equal to $0.205 per share) |
||||||
|
. 4.3% annual rate at $19 |
||||||
|
Business |
||||||
|
. One of the world's leading theatrical exhibition companies based on a number of characteristics, |
||||||
|
including total revenues. |
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|
. Founded in 1920 and since that time have pioneered many of the industry's most important |
||||||
|
innovations, including the multiplex theatre format in the early 1960's and the North American |
||||||
|
megaplex theatre format in the mid-1990's. |
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|
. In addition, we have acquired some of the most respected companies in the theatrical exhibition |
||||||
|
industry, including Loews and General Cinema, and we have a demonstrated track record of |
||||||
|
successfully integrating those companies through timely theatre conversion, headcount reductions |
||||||
|
and consolidation of corporate operations. |
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|
. As of December 28, 2006, we owned, operated or held interests in 382 theatres with a total of |
||||||
|
5,340 screens, approximately 87% of which were located in the United States and Canada. |
||||||
|
. Our theatres are primarily located in large urban markets in which we have a strong market |
||||||
|
position relative to our competitors. |
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|
Use of $714mm in IPO proceeds |
||||||
|
. 100% to selling shareholders |
||||||
|
. All are private equity or buy-out funds |
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|
=================== |
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|
Cavium Networks |
CAVM, C+, 7 |
|||||
|
semi-conductors for networks |
Post-IPO shrs: 38m |
|||||
|
Mountain View, CA |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
March, 06* |
March, 07* |
IPO Mkt |
|
Rev ($mm) |
$7 |
$19 |
$34 |
$7 |
$11 |
Cap (mm) |
|
Gross margin % |
58% |
59% |
62% |
63% |
63% |
$418 |
|
Profit (loss) |
-$11 |
-$11 |
-$8 |
-$3 |
-$1 |
@$11 |
|
Profit (loss) % |
-154% |
-58.2% |
-22% |
-40% |
-5% |
|
|
*Qtr ended March 31 |
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|
VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
|
Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
|
|
Cavium Networks CAVM |
$418 |
9.4 |
-174 |
5.4 |
5.5 |
16% |
|
SCORECARD |
Mgt |
Market |
Market Do- |
Proprie- |
Total |
|
|
1-5, 5 is high |
Growth |
mination |
tary |
rating |
||
|
20 is perfect |
2 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
7 |
|
|
Business |
||||||
|
. Highly integrated semiconductor processors that enable intelligent networking, communications |
||||||
|
and security applications. |
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|
. Products also include a rich suite of embedded security protocols that enable unified threat |
||||||
|
management, or UTM, secure connectivity and network perimeter protection. |
||||||
|
Products |
||||||
|
. Are systems on a chip, or SoCs, which incorporate single or multiple processor cores, a highly |
||||||
|
integrated architecture and customizable software that is based on a broad range of standard |
||||||
|
operating systems. |
||||||
|
. Are used in a broad array of networking equipment, including routers, switches, content-aware |
||||||
|
switches, UTM and other security appliances, application-aware gateways, voice/video/data, or |
||||||
|
triple-play, gateways, wireless local area network, or WLAN, and 3G access and aggregation |
||||||
|
devices, storage networking equipment, servers and intelligent network interface cards. |
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|
Customers |
||||||
|
. In 2006, generated revenue from over 100 customers, including Aruba Networks, Inc., Cisco |
||||||
|
Systems, Inc., Citrix Systems, Inc., F5 Networks, Inc., Furukawa Electric Co., Ltd., Juniper |
||||||
|
Networks, Inc., Nokia Corporation, SafeNet, Inc., SonicWALL, Inc. and Yamaha Corporation |
||||||
|
. Received 56% of revenue in 2006 from top five customers and 60% of revenue in the first |
||||||
|
quarter of 2007 from the top five customers |
||||||
|
Sales |
||||||
|
. Primarily sells products to OEMs, either directly or through their contract manufacturers |
||||||
|
. Contract manufacturers purchase CAVM products only when an OEM incorporates CAVM's |
||||||
|
product into the OEM's product, not as commercial off-the-shelf products. |
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|
History |
||||||
|
. From incorporation in 2000 through 2003, primarily engaged in the design and development of |
||||||
|
the first processor family, NITROX, which began shipping commercially in 2003. |
||||||
|
. In 2004, introduced and commenced commercial shipments of NITROX Soho. |
||||||
|
. In 2006, commenced first commercial shipments of the OCTEON family of multi-core MIPS64 |
||||||
|
processors. |
||||||
|
. In addition, introduced a number of new products within all three of these product families in |
||||||
|
2006 |
||||||
|
. Since inception, has invested heavily in new product development and has not yet achieved |
||||||
|
profitability on a quarterly or annual basis. |
||||||
|
. Revenue has grown from $7.4 million in 2004 to $34.2 million in 2006, driven primarily by |
||||||
|
demand in the enterprise network and data center markets. |
||||||
|
. CAVM expects product sales for use in the enterprise network and data center markets to |
||||||
|
continue to represent a substantial portion of our revenue in the foreseeable future. |
||||||
|
Intellectual property |
||||||
|
. Has six issued and 27 pending patent applications in the United States, and two issued and 27 |
||||||
|
pending foreign patent applications. |
||||||
|
. The six issued patents in the United States expire in the years beginning in 2021 through 2023 |
||||||
|
. The two issued foreign patents expire in 2022. |
||||||
|
. Issued patents and pending patent applications relate to security processors, multi-core |
||||||
|
microprocessor processing and other processing concepts |
||||||
|
Competition |
||||||
|
. Primary competitors to be other companies that provide embedded processor products to the |
||||||
|
market, including Freescale, Broadcom, Raza, Marvell, PMC-Sierra, Intel, and to a lesser extent, |
||||||
|
Hifn. |
||||||
|
. Most of these competitors offer products that differ in functionality and processing speeds and |
||||||
|
address some or all of our four target end markets. In comparison we offer a broad array of highly |
||||||
|
integrated, intelligent solutions at various performance levels and prices for each of our end |
||||||
|
markets. |
||||||
|
> VM product features & competitive advantages, according to CAVM |
||||||
|
. CAVM products generally include a multiple number of processor cores, greater integration of |
||||||
|
L4-L7 hardware acceleration and interfaces, and efficient power consumption for networking, |
||||||
|
communication and security applications. |
||||||
|
. Features previously available in the marketplace; CAVM's ability to recruit good talent including |
||||||
|
software engineers and chip designers; and CAVM's ability to protect our intellectual property. |
||||||
|
Use of $61.5mm in IPO proceeds |
||||||
|
. $3.6mm to repay debt |
||||||
|
. $1.9mm to pay a license fee |
||||||
|
. balance for working capital and other general corporate purposes. |
||||||
|
=================== |
||||||
|
Interactive Brokers |
IBKR, B-, 8 |
|||||
|
Greenwich, CT |
Post-IPO shrs: 400m |
|||||
|
electronic broker |
2003 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
IPO Mkt |
|
|
Rev ($mm) |
$651 |
$622 |
$1,099 |
$1,737 |
Cap (mm) |
|
|
Interest |
$46 |
$58 |
$170 |
484 |
$12,040 |
|
|
Net revenues |
$605 |
$564 |
$929 |
$1,253 |
@$30.1 |
|
|
Executiion & clearing % of net rev |
21% |
27% |
23% |
25% |
||
|
Partnership Profit (loss) |
$345 |
$270 |
$536 |
$734 |
||
|
Income taxes, 45% rate |
$155 |
$122 |
$241 |
$330 |
||
|
Fully taxed income |
$190 |
$149 |
$295 |
$404 |
||
|
Profit (loss) % of net rev |
29% |
24% |
27% |
23% |
||
|
VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
|
Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
|
|
Interactive Brokers IBKR |
$12,040 |
9.6 |
30 |
3.8 |
4.3 |
10% |
|
Greenwich, CT |
Mgt |
Market |
Market Do- |
Proprie- |
Total |
|
|
electronic broker |
Growth |
mination |
tary |
rating |
||
|
20 is perfect |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
8 |
|
|
Compare & contrast -- ratios |
||||||
|
VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price |
|
Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
May 3 |
|
|
Interactive Brokers IBKR |
$12,040 |
9.6 |
30 |
3.8 |
4.3 |
$30.01 |
|
NYMEX Holdgs (NMX) |
$11,420 |
17.4 |
51 |
13.4 |
21.0 |
$124.00 |
|
CBOT Holdings BOT |
$8,410 |
11 |
38 |
11.0 |
11.0 |
$195.21 |
|
Chicago Merc (CME) |
$18,120 |
14 |
35 |
11.1 |
11.1 |
$520.00 |
|
InterconExchng (ICE) |
$9,470 |
19 |
43 |
7.6 |
-155.2 |
$137.65 |
|
Intern'l Sec Exc (ISE)* |
$2,560 |
11.4 |
38 |
9.3 |
9.3 |
$67.00 |
|
Based on annualizing March quarter results |
||||||
|
*Deutsche Boerse agreed to buy ISE for $2.8 billion. |
||||||
|
Recent developments |
||||||
|
. Expects total net revenues to be between $318 million and $338 million for the quarter ended |
||||||
|
March 31, 2007, compared to total net revenues of $1.25 billion for the year ended December 31, |
||||||
|
'2006. |
||||||
|
. Expects income before income tax to be between $181 million and $192 million for the quarter |
||||||
|
ended March 31, 2007, compared to income before income tax of $761.6 million for the year |
||||||
|
ended December 31, 2006 |
||||||
|
. Unexpectedly heavy options activity in advance of certain corporate announcements adversely |
||||||
|
impacted market making operations during the quarter ended March 31, 2007. |
||||||
|
. Operating results for the quarter ended March 31, 2007 are not necessarily indicative of the |
||||||
|
results to be expected in future periods. |
||||||
|
Business |
||||||
|
. Automated, integrated, interactive, global electronic market making |
||||||
|
. Specializing in derivatives and equities, options, futures and ETFs listed on electronic exchanges |
||||||
|
. Business is done by computers, not people |
||||||
|
Major global market networking trend (global market of electronic networks) |
||||||
|
Resource allocation optimization using a global network of electronic platforms |
||||||
|
. The network is formed by electronic exchanges market markers, brokers and customers |
||||||
|
. IBKR provides 60 exchanges with liquidity and global access to institutional and professional |
||||||
|
individual investors |
||||||
|
Growth plan |
||||||
|
Use IBKR's established platform to expand further to new exchanges, products & customers |
||||||
|
Competitive strengths |
||||||
|
• Proprietary technology |
||||||
|
IBKR views itself primarily as a technology company. Since inception in 1977, has focused on |
||||||
|
developing proprietary software to automate broker-dealer functions. Believes that itsearly and |
||||||
|
continuous investment in technology, as well as overall technological capabilities, provides a |
||||||
|
significant advantage over competition by enabling us IBKR make markets profitably in financial |
||||||
|
instruments (e.g., equity options, futures, index options and equities) worldwide with low spreads |
||||||
|
between bid and offer prices, while at the same time providing customers with the ability to effect |
||||||
|
trades at execution and commission costs that are among the lowest in the industry. |
||||||
|
• Experienced management team |
||||||