|
Financial Performance & Scoring -- © 2006 Gaskins IPO Desktop/ IPOdesktop.com |
||||||
|
Pre-IPO analysis |
||||||
|
. Business Model Rating Criteria |
||||||
|
A = high growth market, potential leader; B = more competitive market; C='public venture capital' |
||||||
|
. Calculations |
||||||
|
. IPO Price to annualized Sales Ratio -- (Price / Sales) |
||||||
|
Numerator |
Denominator |
|||||
|
IPO market capitalization… |
Annualized Sales (last quarter's revenues times 4) |
|||||
|
(post-IPO # of shares times mid-point of IPO price range) |
||||||
|
. IPO Price to annualized Earnings (loss) -- (Price / Earnings) |
||||||
|
Numerator |
Denominator |
|||||
|
IPO market cap |
Annualized Earnings (loss) from the last quarter |
|||||
|
========================================================================= |
||||||
|
SEARCH BY COMPANY |
Use 'Edit, find on this page' to search for companies |
|||||
|
for analysis |
scheduled below |
|||||
|
========================================================================= |
||||||
|
Summary -- scheduled for week of June 12 |
||||||
|
VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
|
Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
|
|
Summary -- scheduled for week of June 12 |
||||||
|
Golfsmith Intern'l (GOLF) |
$233 |
0.8 |
-67 |
1.9 |
4.6 |
39% |
|
retails golf equipment |
Post-IPO shrs: 15.5mm |
|||||
|
Houston Wire (HWCC) |
$272 |
1.0 |
14 |
4.9 |
5.2 |
41% |
|
wire & cable distributor |
Post-IPO shrs:21mm |
|||||
|
SynchronossTech SNCR |
$310 |
4.9 |
52 |
3.4 |
3.5 |
25% |
|
e-commerce transaction management |
Post-IPO shrs: 31mm |
|||||
|
VeraSun Energy (VSE) |
$1,419 |
3.2 |
131 |
3.9 |
4.3 |
23% |
|
2nd largest ethanol producer in US |
Post-IPO shrs: 75mm |
|||||
|
Verigy Ltd. (VRGY) |
$995 |
1.5 |
-16 |
3.1 |
3.3 |
15% |
|
test systems for semiconductors |
Oct 31 fiscal year |
Post-IPO shrs: 58.5mm |
||||
|
Volcano Corp (VOLC) |
$351 |
4.4 |
-14 |
4.8 |
6.0 |
21% |
|
products diagnose heart disease |
Post-IPO shrs: 32mm |
|||||
|
========================================================================= |
||||||
|
========================================================================= |
||||||
|
SEARCH BY COMPANY |
Use 'Edit, find on this page' to search for companies |
|||||
|
for analysis |
scheduled below |
|||||
|
========================================================================= |
||||||
|
Analysis -- week of June 12 |
||||||
|
Note: VeraSun (VSE) & Houson Wire (HWCC) posted separately |
||||||
|
Golfsmith Intern'l |
GOLF, C+, 6 |
|||||
|
retails golf equipment |
Post-IPO shrs: 15.5mm |
|||||
|
Austin, TX |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
Mar 31 qtr |
IPO Mkt |
|
|
Revenue ($mm) |
$258.0 |
$296.0 |
$324.0 |
$75.0 |
Cap (mm) |
|
|
Gross profit % |
33.6% |
34.1% |
35.8% |
34.4% |
$233 |
|
|
Operating income % |
4.9% |
3.3% |
4.5% |
2.5% |
@$15 |
|
|
Net income (loss) $mm |
$1.0 |
($4.8) |
$3.0 |
($0.9) |
||
|
Net income % |
0.4% |
-1.6% |
0.9% |
-1.2% |
||
|
VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
|
Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
|
|
Golfsmith Intern'l (GOLF) |
$233 |
0.8 |
-67 |
1.9 |
4.6 |
39% |
|
SCORECARD |
Mgt |
Market |
Market Do- |
Proprie- |
Total |
|
|
1-5, 5 is high |
Growth |
mination |
tary |
rating |
||
|
20 is perfect |
2 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
6 |
|
|
Note: GOLF received a grade of C+ because of it's size, even though financial performance |
||||||
|
has been spotty, and operating income declined in the March quarter. |
||||||
|
Business |
||||||
|
. The nation's largest specialty retailer of golf equipment, apparel and accessories based |
||||||
|
on sales. |
||||||
|
. 55 stores across the nation, including three new stores opened in the second quarter of |
||||||
|
'2006 |
||||||
|
. Direct-to-consumer channel consists of www.golfsmith.com and comprehensive |
||||||
|
catalogs |
||||||
|
History |
||||||
|
. Founded in 1967 as a clubmaking company offering custom-made clubs, clubmaking |
||||||
|
components and club repair services. |
||||||
|
. In 1972, opened our first retail store, and in 1975, mailed first general golf products |
||||||
|
catalog. |
||||||
|
. In 1997, launched Internet site to further expand the direct-to-consumer business. |
||||||
|
Acquisition |
||||||
|
In October 2002, Atlantic Equity Partners III, L.P., an investment fund managed by First |
||||||
|
Atlantic Capital, Ltd., acquired GOLF from the original founders, Carl, Barbara and |
||||||
|
Franklin Paul. |
||||||
|
Store openings & growth plan |
||||||
|
. Since the acquisition, has accelerated growth plan by opening additional stores in new |
||||||
|
and existing markets. |
||||||
|
. Opened three new stores in the second quarter of 2006, six new stores during fiscal |
||||||
|
2005, eight new stores during fiscal 2004 and 12 new stores during fiscal 2003, including |
||||||
|
six stores from the acquisition of Don Sherwood Golf & Tennis in July 2003. |
||||||
|
Growth paln |
||||||
|
. Plans to open an additional seven to nine stores in 2006 and between 14 and 16 stores |
||||||
|
in 2007. |
||||||
|
. Based on past experience, opening a new store within the core 15,000 to 20,000 square |
||||||
|
foot format requires $750,000 for capital expenditures, $150,000 for pre-opening |
||||||
|
expenses and $875,000 for inventory depending on the level of work required at the site |
||||||
|
and the time of year that it is opened. |
||||||
|
. GOLF's store model has produced favorable results, including positive store-level cash |
||||||
|
flow in the first full year of operations in most of our stores. |
||||||
|
Competition |
||||||
|
. Competes in both in the off-course specialty retail segment and in the online and |
||||||
|
catalog retail segment. |
||||||
|
. The off-course specialty retail segment is characterized by sales of a complete selection |
||||||
|
of golf equipment and apparel, a unified store image, favorable pricing and |
||||||
|
knowledgeable staff. The online and catalog retail segment is characterized by |
||||||
|
competitive pricing, shopping convenience and a wide product selection. |
||||||
|
Use of $81mm in IPO proceeds |
||||||
|
together with borrowings under a new senior secured credit facility |
||||||
|
. Repay $94m in debt |
||||||
|
. Pay First Atlantic Capital $3mm termination fee. Golf is also obligated to pay $600,000 |
||||||
|
per year until 2012 |
||||||
|
================================================================= |
||||||
|
Synchronoss Tech |
SNCR, C+, 7 |
|||||
|
e-commerce transaction management |
Post-IPO shrs: 31mm |
|||||
|
Bridgewater, NJ |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
Mar 31 qtr |
IPO Mkt |
|
|
Revenue ($mm) |
$16.6 |
$27.2 |
$54.2 |
$15.7 |
Cap (mm) |
|
|
Gross profit % |
53.6% |
34.9% |
44.3% |
43.9% |
$310 |
|
|
Net income (loss) $mm |
($1.0) |
($0.0) |
$12.4 |
$1.5 |
@$10 |
|
|
Net income % |
-6% |
0% |
23% |
10% |
||
|
VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
|
Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
|
|
SynchronossTech SNCR |
$310 |
4.9 |
52 |
3.4 |
3.5 |
25% |
|
SCORECARD |
Mgt |
Market |
Market Do- |
Proprie- |
Total |
|
|
1-5, 5 is high |
Growth |
mination |
tary |
rating |
||
|
20 is perfect |
2 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
7 |
|
|
Note: Cingular Wireless accounted for 71% of revenues for the March quarter. |
||||||
|
Proprietary is rated 1 because SNCR's customers/prospects also develop |
||||||
|
internally a version of the SNCR solution |
||||||
|
Business |
||||||
|
. E-commerce transaction management solutions to the communications services |
||||||
|
marketplace based on penetration into key providers of communications services. |
||||||
|
. SNCR's on-demand software platform enables communications service providers, or |
||||||
|
CSPs, to take, manage and provision orders and other customer-oriented transactions |
||||||
|
and create complex service bundles. |
||||||
|
. SNCR CSP customers use its platform and technology to service both consumer and |
||||||
|
business customers, including over 300 of the Fortune 500 companies. |
||||||
|
Transactional service arrangements: |
||||||
|
. Transaction service revenues consist of revenues derived from the processing of |
||||||
|
transactions through our service platform and represented 83% of net revenues for 2005 |
||||||
|
and 87% for the three months ended March 31, 2006. |
||||||
|
. Transaction service arrangements include services such as equipment orders, new |
||||||
|
account setup, number port requests, credit checks and inventory management. |
||||||
|
Target markets |
||||||
|
. Complex and high-growth industry segments including wireless, Voice over Internet |
||||||
|
Protocol, or VoIP, wireline and other markets. We have designed our solution to be |
||||||
|
flexible, allowing us to meet the rapidly changing and converging services offered by |
||||||
|
CSPs. By simplifying technological complexities through the automation and integration |
||||||
|
of disparate systems, we enable CSPs to acquire, retain and service customers quickly, |
||||||
|
reliably and cost-effectively. Our industry-leading customers, which we believe are |
||||||
|
representative customers based on our past and expected revenues and the types of |
||||||
|
CSPs we serve, include Cingular Wireless, Vonage Holdings, Cablevision Systems, |
||||||
|
Level 3 Communications, Verizon Business, Clearwire, 360networks, Time Warner |
||||||
|
Cable, Comcast and AT&T. In particular, |
||||||
|
Customers |
||||||
|
. Has long-standing relationship with Cingular Wireless, from whom SNCR currently |
||||||
|
derives a substantial portion of our revenues. Cingular Wireless accounted for 75% of |
||||||
|
revenues for the three months ended December 31, 2005, 80% of revenues during 2005 |
||||||
|
and 71% of revenues for the three months ended March 31, 2006. |
||||||
|
. Other customers include wireline, wireless, cable, broadband and VoIP service |
||||||
|
providers including Vonage Holdings, Cablevision Systems, Level 3 Communications, |
||||||
|
Verizon Business, Clearwire, 360networks, Time Warner Cable, Comcast and AT&T. |
||||||
|
Competition |
||||||
|
Internally developed |
||||||
|
. Competes with CSPs' (communications service providers) internally developed IT |
||||||
|
systems. While many CSPs continue to rely upon their internal solutions, SNCR believes |
||||||
|
that due to the complexity of telecommunications networking infrastructure, systems |
||||||
|
developed in-house are often inefficient, costly and provide unreliable results. SMCR |
||||||
|
believes its solutions provide a lower total cost of ownership, faster time-to-market and |
||||||
|
the ability to scale more rapidly based on end-user demand than internally developed |
||||||
|
solutions. |
||||||
|
Vendors |
||||||
|
. Competes with gateway systems vendors such as Neustar and VeriSign, which offer |
||||||
|
clearinghouse-type services such as managing area codes and phone numbers, routing |
||||||
|
telephone calls, managing Internet domain directories and securing electronic commerce |
||||||
|
and communications. |
||||||
|
. SNCR does not currently provide such services and therefore does not directly compete |
||||||
|
with the clearinghouse-type services offered by gateway systems vendors. |
||||||
|
. In areas where SNCR competes with gateway systems vendors, it believes it |
||||||
|
differentiates by deploying exception handling and managing transactions ranging from |
||||||
|
initial subscription to customer lifecycle transactions, such as ongoing additions, |
||||||
|
subtractions and changes to services. We believe our expertise and proprietary |
||||||
|
technology enable CSPs to rely on us for complete transaction management solutions. |
||||||
|
. Also competes with systems integrators such as Accenture. These vendors develop |
||||||
|
customized solutions for CSPs, which typically involves building and operating a custom |
||||||
|
e-commerce transaction management solution. |
||||||
|
Use of $59mm in IPO proceeds from sale of 6.55mm shares |
||||||
|
(shareholders intend to offer 1.05mm shares) |
||||||
|
Fund the expansion of the business |
||||||
|
======================================================== |
||||||
|
Verigy Ltd. |
VRGY C, 6 |
|||||
|
test systems for semiconductors |
Oct 31 fiscal year |
Post-IPO shrs: 58.5mm |
||||
|
Singapore, Singapore |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
Jan 31 qtr |
IPO Mkt |
|
|
Revenue ($mm) |
$540.0 |
$607.0 |
$456.0 |
$170.0 |
Cap (mm) |
|
|
Gross Profit % |
42.8% |
41.7% |
30.7% |
41.8% |
$995 |
|
|
Net income (loss) $mm |
($28.0) |
($8.0) |
($119.0) |
($16.0) |
@$17 |
|
|
Net income % |
-5% |
-1% |
-26% |
-9% |
||
|
VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
|
Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
|
|
Verigy Ltd. (VRGY) |
$995 |
1.5 |
-16 |
3.1 |
3.3 |
15% |
|
SCORECARD |
Mgt |
Market |
Market Do- |
Proprie- |
Total |
|
|
1-5, 5 is high |
Growth |
mination |
rating |
|||
|
20 is perfect |
1 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
6 |
|
|
Note: Market growth is 1 because semiconductor growth is cyclical and not structural |
||||||
|
and because customers/prospects also internally develop competiting test systems. |
||||||
|
. Management is rated 1 because the company has not shown a profit which is |
||||||
|
also why VRGY also has a C grade |
||||||
|
Business |
||||||
|
. Advanced test systems and solutions for the semiconductor industry. |
||||||
|
. Offers a single platform for each of the two general categories of devices being tested: |
||||||
|
93000 Series platform, designed to test SOCs, SIPs and high-speed memory devices, |
||||||
|
and the Versatest V5000 Series platform, designed to test memory devices, including |
||||||
|
flash memory and multi-chip packages. |
||||||
|
. Also provide a range of services that assist our customers in quickly and cost effectively |
||||||
|
delivering the innovative, feature-rich products demanded by their end users. |
||||||
|
Customers |
||||||
|
. Sells products and services directly to a wide range of customers, including integrated |
||||||
|
device manufacturers, or IDMs, test subcontractors, which includes specialty assembly, |
||||||
|
package and test companies as well as wafer foundries, and fabless design companies. . |
||||||
|
Has a broad installed customer base, having sold over 1,200 93000 Series systems and |
||||||
|
over 2,000 Versatest Series systems. |
||||||
|
. For the three months ended January 31, 2006, two customers, STATS ChipPAC Ltd. |
||||||
|
and Intel Corporation, represented greater than 10% of net revenue while one customer, |
||||||
|
Spansion Inc., accounted for more than 10% of our net revenue for the three months |
||||||
|
ended January 31, 2005. |
||||||
|
. In fiscal 2005, no single customer represented greater than 10% of net revenue. In fiscal |
||||||
|
2004, one customer, Spansion Inc., accounted for more than 10% of net revenue. In |
||||||
|
fiscal 2003, three customers, ASE Test, Inc., Intel Corporation and Spansion Inc., each |
||||||
|
accounted for more than 10% of net revenue. |
||||||
|
Cyclical business trends |
||||||
|
. Cyclical periods have had and will have significant impacts on the business because |
||||||
|
customers often delay or accelerate purchases in reaction to changes in their businesses |
||||||
|
and to demand fluctuations in the semiconductor industry. |
||||||
|
. Historically, these demand fluctuations have resulted in significant variations in results |
||||||
|
of operations. For example, revenues increased 12% from $540 million in fiscal 2003 to |
||||||
|
$607 million in fiscal 2004, but decreased 25% from $607 million in fiscal 2004 to $456 |
||||||
|
million in fiscal 2005, reflecting trends in the semiconductor industry during those periods. |
||||||
|
. Upturns and downturns in the semiconductor industry in recent years have generally |
||||||
|
affected the semiconductor test equipment and services industry more significantly than |
||||||
|
the overall capital equipment sector. |
||||||
|
. Furthermore, VRGY sells to a variety of customers, including subcontractors. Because |
||||||
|
VRGY sells to subcontractors, which during market downturns tend to reduce or cancel |
||||||
|
orders for new test systems and test services more quickly and dramatically than other |
||||||
|
customers, any downturn may cause a quicker and more significant adverse impact on |
||||||
|
the business than on the broader semiconductor industry. |
||||||
|
Spin-off from Agilent Tech (NYSE: A), $15bb market cap |
||||||
|
. Historically, operated as part of Agilent, and not as a stand-alone company. Financial |
||||||
|
statements were not previously prepared for Verigy, will not be operated as a separate |
||||||
|
legal entity prior to separation from Agilent, expects to occur on June 1, 2006. |
||||||
|
. Agilent Technologies, Inc. provides bio-analytical and electronic measurement solutions |
||||||
|
to the communications, electronics, life sciences, and chemical analysis industries. |
||||||
|
operates in three segments: Electronic Measurement, Bio-Analytical Measurement, and |
||||||
|
Semiconductor Test Solution |
||||||
|
. 'A' itself was spun off from Hewlett Packard in 1999 |
||||||
|
May face competition from Agilent |
||||||
|
Agilent has agreed that, except as described below, for a period of three years after the |
||||||
|
distribution date, Agilent will not develop, manufacture, distribute, support or service |
||||||
|
automated semiconductor test systems for providing high-volume functional test of Ics |
||||||
|
(including memory and high speed memory devices and SOCs) or SIPs, or components |
||||||
|
for such products. However, during this three-year period, Agilent may compete with |
||||||
|
respect to: |
||||||
|
o Products (other than automated semiconductor test systems for high-volume functional |
||||||
|
test) for providing functional test of ICs or SIPs, whether or not including parametric test |
||||||
|
(the testing of selected parameters of a device or group of devices to identify errors or |
||||||
|
flaws), design verification or engineering characterization capabilities; |
||||||
|
o Automated semiconductor test development systems (including hardware and software) |
||||||
|
that are intended to enable development of test programs and protocols for use in high- |
||||||
|
volume functional test of ICs or SIPs, whether or not such development test systems |
||||||
|
themselves are capable of providing such high-volume functional test; and |
||||||
|
o Products (other than automated semiconductor test systems for high-volume functional |
||||||
|
test) for providing parametric test, design verification, engineering characterization or |
||||||
|
functional test of: (i) wireless communications devices, such as cellular telephones or |
||||||
|
wireless networking products, whether in packaged device or module form, and whether |
||||||
|
or not implemented as an IC or SIP; (ii) modules (such as RF front-end modules) |
||||||
|
containing one or more ICs connected with other active or passive devices; and (iii) RF |
||||||
|
and higher frequency (e.g., microwave and optical) devices and components such as |
||||||
|
oscillators, mixers, amplifiers and 3-port devices, to the extent that such devices or |
||||||
|
components are in the form of an IC or SIP. |
||||||
|
Competiton |
||||||
|
. Primary competitors include Advantest, Credence Systems, LTX Corporation, Nextest, |
||||||
|
Teradyne and Yokogawa. |
||||||
|
. Also compete with products developed internally by customers. |
||||||
|
Use of $134mm in IPO proceeds |
||||||
|
. $105mm for general corporate purposes, including working capital |
||||||
|
. $40mm in costs related to separation from Agilent |
||||||
|
========================================================= |
||||||
|
Volcano Corp |
VOLC, C, 6 |
|||||
|
products diagnose heart disease |
Post-IPO shrs: 32mm |
|||||
|
Rancho Cordova, CA |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
Mar 31 qtr |
IPO Mkt |
|
|
Revenue ($mm) |
$23.5 |
$61.1 |
$92.0 |
$20.0 |
Cap (mm) |
|
|
Gross Profit % |
37.9% |
51.1% |
47.8% |
58.5% |
$351 |
|
|
Net income (loss) $mm |
($15.1) |
($16.2) |
($15.2) |
($6.3) |
@$11 |
|
|
Net income % |
-64% |
-27% |
-17% |
-32% |
||
|
VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
|
Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
|
|
Volcano Corp (VOLC) |
$351 |
4.4 |
-14 |
4.8 |
6.0 |
21% |
|
SCORECARD |
Mgt |
Market |
Market Do- |
Proprie- |
Total |
|
|
1-5, 5 is high |
Growth |
mination |
tary |
rating |
||
|
20 is perfect |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
6 |
|
|
Business |
||||||
|
. Intravascular ultrasound, or IVUS, and functional measurement, or FM, products |
||||||
|
. VOLC believes its products enhance the diagnosis and treatment of vascular and |
||||||
|
structural heart disease. |
||||||
|
Distribution |
||||||
|
. Fukuda Denshi, VOLC's exclusive IVUS distributor in Japan, accounted for 24.2% of |
||||||
|
revenues in the three months ended March 31, 2006, 34.5% in 2005 and 12.0% in 2004. |
||||||
|
. In the first quarter of 2005, Goodman, formerly Boston Scientific's distributor of its IVUS |
||||||
|
products in Japan, began to distribute VOLC's IVUS products in Japan through a sub |
||||||
|
distribution agreement with Fukuda Denshi. |
||||||
|
. Due to this new distribution relationship, VOLC experienced a significant increase in |
||||||
|
orders for IVUS consoles and catheters from Fukuda Denshi during 2005 as Goodman |
||||||
|
purchased initial inventory of products to market to its over 1,100 interventional |
||||||
|
cardiology accounts. |
||||||
|
. As a result of the significant order activity by Goodman, VOLC's revenues, including the |
||||||
|
mix of consoles and single-procedure disposable catheters, and the costs of those |
||||||
|
revenues in 2005 may not be comparable to other periods. |
||||||
|
. Additionally, Fukuda Denshi transferred the Japanese regulatory approvals, or shonins, |
||||||
|
for IVUS products to VOLC on June 1, 2006. Due to the transfer, VOLC is now able to |
||||||
|
sell directly to distributors in Japan as opposed to being required to sell IVUS products |
||||||
|
only to Fukuda Denshi. |
||||||
|
. As a result, for a portion of 2006, VOLC will sell directly to Goodman and Fukuda |
||||||
|
Denshi and the percentage of revenues attributable to Fukuda Denshi will decline. |
||||||
|
Competition |
||||||
|
. Primary IVUS competitor globally is Boston Scientific, also competes with Terumo |
||||||
|
Corporation in Japan. |
||||||
|
. In the FM market, the primary competitor is Radi Medical Systems AB, a private medical |
||||||
|
device manufacturer. |
||||||
|
Use of $66mm in IPO proceeds |
||||||
|
o $30.0 million for sales and marketing initiatives to support the ongoing |
||||||
|
commercialization of products; and |
||||||
|
o $28.2 million for repayment of outstanding debt to FFC Partners II, L.P. and FFC |
||||||
|
Executive Partners II, L.P. |
||||||
|
o Balanced to research and development activities and general corporate purposes. |
||||||
|
========================================================== |
||||||