|
Financial Performance & Scoring -- © 2007 Gaskins IPO Desktop/IPOdesktop |
||||||
|
Pre-IPO analysis, grading & scoring -- updated August 11 |
||||||
|
. Business Model Rating Criteria |
||||||
|
A = high growth market, potential leader; B = more competitive market; C= 'public venture capital' |
||||||
|
. Calculations |
||||||
|
. IPO Price to annualized Sales Ratio -- (Price / Sales) |
||||||
|
Numerator |
Denominator |
|||||
|
IPO market capitalization… |
Annualized Sales (based on recent results) |
|||||
|
(post-IPO # of shares times mid-point of IPO price range) |
||||||
|
. IPO Price to annualized Earnings (loss) -- (Price / Earnings) |
||||||
|
Numerator |
Denominator |
|||||
|
IPO market cap |
Annualized Earnings (loss) from the last quarter |
|||||
|
=================== |
||||||
|
SEARCH BY COMPANY |
In your browser use 'Edit/Find' to search for companies |
|||||
|
or ticker for analysis |
scheduled below |
|||||
|
=================== |
||||||
|
Aug 13 week IPO schedule |
||||||
|
VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
|
Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
|
|
CCS Medical (CCSM) |
$570 |
1.0 |
165 |
2.0 |
-2.0 |
26% |
|
medical supply distributor: C+, 7 -- highly leveraged, high p/e ratio |
Post-IPO shrs:38mm |
|||||
|
Vmware (VMW) |
$10,503 |
8.8 |
77 |
11.7 |
34.6 |
9% |
|
virtual storage solutions: B, 10* |
Post-IPO shrs:375mm |
|||||
|
*however notice software IPO aftermarket performance, below |
||||||
|
=================== |
||||||
|
SEARCH BY COMPANY |
In your browser use 'Edit/Find' to search for companies |
|||||
|
or ticker for analysis |
scheduled below |
|||||
|
=================== |
||||||
|
Aug13 week IPO schedule: analysis, grading, scoring |
||||||
|
CCS Medical |
CCSM, C+, 7 -- highly leveraged, high p/e ratio |
|||||
|
medical supply distributor |
Post-IPO shrs:38mm |
|||||
|
Clearwater, FL |
2006 |
June, 07* |
IPO Mkt |
|||
|
Rev ($mm) |
$432 |
$274 |
Cap (mm) |
|||
|
Gross Profit |
44% |
46% |
$570 |
|||
|
Interest expense % |
12% |
10% |
@$15 |
|||
|
Profit (loss) $mm |
-$27.0 |
$4.9 |
||||
|
Profit (loss) % |
-6% |
2% |
||||
|
* six months ended June 30 |
||||||
|
Last four quarters |
Sept, 06 |
Dec, 06 |
March, 07 |
June, 07 |
||
|
Rev ($mm) |
$113 |
$120 |
$137 |
$138 |
||
|
Gross Profit |
42% |
44% |
47% |
45% |
||
|
Interest expense % |
11.5% |
10.8% |
9.5% |
10.4% |
||
|
Profit (loss) $mm |
-$4.1 |
-$1.1 |
$4.0 |
$0.9 |
||
|
Profit (loss) % |
-4% |
-1% |
3% |
1% |
||
|
Number of customers |
390,446 |
397,051 |
399,081 |
399,846 |
||
|
Acquisition cost per diabetic patient* |
$132 |
$141 |
$159 |
$168 |
||
|
*Notice the increase in acquisiton cost |
||||||
|
VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
|
Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
|
|
CCS Medical (CCSM) |
$570 |
1.0 |
165 |
2.0 |
-2.0 |
26% |
|
SCORECARD |
Mgt |
Market |
Market Do- |
Proprie- |
Total |
|
|
1-5, 5 is high |
Growth |
mination |
tary |
rating |
||
|
20 is perfect |
2 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
7 |
|
|
Business |
||||||
|
. A leading medical supply management company delivering products and value-added services to |
||||||
|
individuals living with select chronic medical conditions, including diabetes, urological and ostomy-related |
||||||
|
disorders, chronic wounds, incontinence, respiratory conditions and other illnesses |
||||||
|
. Targets healthcare professionals who focus on chronic conditions to expand an extensive relationship |
||||||
|
based network. Target markets are large, growing at epidemic (definition: the occurrence of more cases of |
||||||
|
a disease than would be expected in a community or region during a given time period) levels and being |
||||||
|
serviced more frequently by mail |
||||||
|
. Primary product focus is on diabetes, a large and fast growing component of the chronic care market. |
||||||
|
Products distributed in the diabetes market include blood glucose testing supplies, insulin pumps and |
||||||
|
related supplies, and prescription medications. |
||||||
|
History |
||||||
|
Formed in September 2005 in connection with the acquisition of Chronic Care Solutions, Inc. and MPTC |
||||||
|
Holdings, Inc. by Warburg Pincus |
||||||
|
Competition |
||||||
|
Retail pharmacies such as CVS Corporation, Rite Aid Corporation, and Walgreen Co |
||||||
|
. Direct-to-consumer distributors of medical supplies such as Polymedica Corp., Edgepark Surgical, and |
||||||
|
Byram Healthcare; healthcare product distributors such as Henry Schein Inc., PSS World Medical Inc., and |
||||||
|
Patterson Companies, Inc. |
||||||
|
. Pharmacy benefit management companies such as Caremark Inc., Medco Health Solutions Inc., and |
||||||
|
Express Scripts, Inc |
||||||
|
. Prescription drug plans with in-house pharmacies. |
||||||
|
Use of $138mm in IPO proceeds |
||||||
|
Repay debt |
||||||
|
=================== |
||||||
|
Vmware |
VMW, B, 10 -- however notice software IPO aftermarket performance, below |
|||||
|
virtual storage solutions |
Post-IPO shrs:375mm |
|||||
|
Palo Alto, CA |
2005 |
2006 |
June, 06* |
June, 07* |
IPO Mkt |
|
|
Rev ($mm) |
$387 |
$704 |
$204 |
$374 |
Cap (mm) |
|
|
Gross Profit |
83% |
82% |
83% |
83% |
$10,503 |
|
|
Profit (loss) $mm |
$67.0 |
$86.0 |
$35.7 |
$75.3 |
@$28 |
|
|
Profit (loss) % |
17% |
12% |
18% |
20% |
||
|
Deferred revenue |
$199 |
$416 |
||||
|
* six months ended June 30 |
||||||
|
Last five quarters |
June, 06 |
Sept, 06 |
Dec, 06 |
March, 07 |
June, 07 |
|
|
Rev ($mm) |
$156 |
$189 |
$230 |
$259 |
$297 |
|
|
Gross Profit |
83% |
80% |
83% |
83% |
84% |
|
|
Profit (loss) $mm |
$15.1 |
$19.3 |
$31.0 |
$41.1 |
$34.2 |
|
|
Profit (loss) % |
10% |
10% |
13% |
16% |
12% |
|
|
VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
|
Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
|
|
Vmware (VMW) |
$10,503 |
8.8 |
77 |
11.7 |
34.6 |
9% |
|
SCORECARD |
Mgt |
Market |
Market Do- |
Proprie- |
Total |
|
|
1-5, 5 is high |
Growth |
mination |
tary |
rating |
||
|
20 is perfect |
2 |
3 |
3 |
2 |
10 |
|
|
Software IPO performance in the last 12months |
||||||
|
Notice: on average software IPOs have lost 12% of their value in the aftermarket |
||||||
|
Company |
IPO |
1st day |
1st day |
Aug 9 |
%chg |
%chg from |
|
(most recent IPOs first) |
price |
close |
% chg |
price |
from IPO |
from 1st |
|
from IPO |
day |
|||||
|
DemandTec (DMAN) |
$11.00 |
$9.63 |
-12% |
$9.50 |
-14% |
-1% |
|
BladeLogic (BLOG) |
$17.00 |
$25.07 |
47% |
$22.57 |
33% |
-10% |
|
Netezza (NX) |
$12.00 |
$17.39 |
45% |
$13.94 |
16% |
-20% |
|
Solera Hldg )SLH) |
$16.00 |
$18.40 |
15% |
$20.03 |
25% |
9% |
|
Sourcefire (FIRE) |
$15.00 |
$15.49 |
3% |
$10.10 |
-33% |
-35% |
|
Salary.com (SLRY) |
$10.50 |
$12.50 |
19% |
$12.89 |
23% |
3% |
|
Double-Take (DBTK) |
$11.00 |
$12.66 |
15% |
$16.25 |
48% |
28% |
|
Guidance (GUID) |
$11.50 |
$15.18 |
32% |
$12.16 |
6% |
-20% |
|
MEDecision (MEDE) |
$10.00 |
$10.00 |
0% |
$4.05 |
-60% |
-60% |
|
DivX (DIVX) |
$16.00 |
$18.70 |
17% |
$13.96 |
-13% |
-25% |
|
CommVault (CLVT) |
$14.50 |
$17.00 |
17% |
$17.56 |
21% |
3% |
|
Total (11) |
19% |
-11% |
||||
|
Range |
-12 to 47% |
-60 to 28% |
||||
|
Ticker |
IPO date |
Business |
||||
|
BLOG |
7/24/2007 |
data center automation software |
||||
|
NZ |
7/18/2007 |
data warehousing |
||||
|
DMAN |
8/8/2007 |
on-demand pricing optimization software |
||||
|
SLH |
5/10/2007 |
auto claimes processing software |
||||
|
FIRE |
3/8/2007 |
real-time computer network intrusion detection |
||||
|
SLRY |
2/14/2007 |
on-demand compensation management software |
||||
|
DBTK |
12/14/2006 |
data protection software for Microsoft servers |
||||
|
GUID |
12/12/2006 |
analyzes digital data across a network. |
||||
|
MEDE |
12/12/2006 |
for healthcare insurers |
||||
|
DIVX |
9/21/2006 |
digital video compression software |
||||
|
CVLT |
9/21/2006 |
data management software |
||||
|
Business |
||||||
|
. The leading provider of virtualization solutions |
||||||
|
. Virtualization solutions represent a pioneering approach to computing that separates the operating system |
||||||
|
and application software from the underlying hardware to achieve significant improvements in efficiency, |
||||||
|
availability, flexibility and manageability. |
||||||
|
. VMW solutions enable organizations to aggregate multiple servers, storage infrastructure and networks |
||||||
|
together into shared pools of capacity that can be allocated dynamically, securely and reliably to |
||||||
|
applications as needed, increasing hardware utilization and reducing spending. |
||||||
|
. VMW believes that the market opportunity for its virtualization solutions is large and expanding, with |
||||||
|
24.6 million x86 servers and 489.7 million business client PCs installed worldwide as of December 2006. |
||||||
|
Customer base |
||||||
|
. Includes 100% of the Fortune 100 and over 84% of the Fortune 1,000. |
||||||
|
. Has grown to include 20,000 organizations of all sizes across numerous industries |
||||||
|
. VMW believes its solutions deliver significant economic value for customers, and many have adopted |
||||||
|
VMW's solutions as the strategic and architectural foundation for their future computing initiatives. |
||||||
|
Market growth |
||||||
|
. VMW believes that the addressable market opportunity for its virtualization solutions is large and |
||||||
|
expanding. |
||||||
|
. IDC estimates that less than one million of the 24.6 million x86 servers and less than five million of the |
||||||
|
489.7 million business client PCs deployed worldwide are running virtualization software. |
||||||
|
. VMW believes industry trends towards more powerful yet under-utilized multi-core servers and the |
||||||
|
increasing complexity of managing desktop environments will further accelerate the widespread adoption |
||||||
|
of virtualization for both server and desktop deployments. |
||||||
|
Virtualization history |
||||||
|
. First introduced in the 1970s to enable multiple business applications to share and fully harness the |
||||||
|
centralized computing capacity of mainframe systems. |
||||||
|
. Virtualization was effectively abandoned during the 1980s and 1990s when client-server applications and |
||||||
|
inexpensive x86 servers and desktops established the model of distributed computing. |
||||||
|
. Rather than sharing resources centrally in the mainframe model, organizations used the low cost of |
||||||
|
distributed systems to build up islands of computing capacity, providing some benefits but also introducing |
||||||
|
new challenges. |
||||||
|
. In 1999, VMware introduced virtualization to x86 systems as a means to efficiently address many of these |
||||||
|
challenges and to transform x86 systems into general purpose, shared hardware infrastructure that offers |
||||||
|
full isolation, mobility and operating system choice for application environments. |
||||||
|
Industry Background |
||||||
|
The introduction of x86 servers in the 1980s provided a low-cost alternative to mainframe and proprietary |
||||||
|
UNIX systems. The broad adoption of Windows and the emergence of Linux as server operating systems in |
||||||
|
the 1990s established x86 servers as the industry standard. The growth in x86 server and desktop |
||||||
|
deployments has introduced new operational risks and IT infrastructure challenges. |
||||||
|
> These challenges include: |
||||||
|
o Low Infrastructure Utilization |
||||||
|
Typical x86 server deployments achieve an average utilization of only 10% to 15% of total capacity, |
||||||
|
according to International Data Corporation (IDC), a market research firm. Organizations typically run one |
||||||
|
application per server to avoid the risk of vulnerabilities in one application affecting the availability of |
||||||
|
another application on the same server. |
||||||
|
o Increasing Physical Infrastructure Costs |
||||||
|
The operational costs to support growing physical infrastructure have steadily increased. Most computing |
||||||
|
infrastructure must remain operational at all times, resulting in power consumption, cooling and facilities |
||||||
|
costs that do not vary with utilization levels. |
||||||
|
o Increasing IT Management Costs |
||||||
|
As computing environments become more complex, the level of specialized education and experience |
||||||
|
required for infrastructure management personnel and the associated costs of such personnel have |
||||||
|
increased. Organizations spend disproportionate time and resources on manual tasks associated with server |
||||||
|
maintenance, and thus require more personnel to complete these tasks. |
||||||
|
o Insufficient Failover and Disaster Protection |
||||||
|
Organizations are increasingly affected by the downtime of critical server applications and inaccessibility |
||||||
|
of critical end user desktops. The threat of security attacks, natural disasters, health pandemics and |
||||||
|
terrorism has elevated the importance of business continuity planning for both desktops and servers. |
||||||
|
o Desktop Management and Security |
||||||
|
Managing and securing enterprise desktops present numerous challenges. Controlling a distributed desktop |
||||||
|
environment and enforcing management, access and security policies without impairing users' ability to |
||||||
|
work effectively is complex and expensive. Numerous patches and upgrades must be continually applied to |
||||||
|
desktop environments to eliminate security vulnerabilities. |
||||||
|
VMW's virtualization solutions |
||||||
|
. Run on industry-standard servers and desktops and support a wide range of operating system and |
||||||
|
application environments, as well as networking and storage infrastructure. |
||||||
|
. Functions independently of the hardware and operating system to provide customers with a broad |
||||||
|
platform choice |
||||||
|
. VMW's solutions provide a key integration point for hardware and infrastructure management vendors to |
||||||
|
deliver differentiated value that can be applied uniformly across all application and operating system |
||||||
|
environments. |
||||||
|
> Key benefits to VMW's virtualization solutions include: |
||||||
|
o Server Consolidation and Infrastructure Optimization |
||||||
|
Enables organizations to achieve significantly higher resource utilization by pooling common infrastructure |
||||||
|
resources and breaking the legacy "one application to one server" model. |
||||||
|
o Physical Infrastructure Cost Reduction |
||||||
|
. Through server consolidation and containment, solutions reduce the required number of servers and other |
||||||
|
related infrastructure overhead. |
||||||
|
. Organizations are able to significantly decrease physical infrastructure costs through reduced data center |
||||||
|
space, power and cooling requirements. |
||||||
|
o Improved Operational Flexibility and Responsiveness |
||||||
|
. Offers a set of automation and management solutions that reduce the amount of time IT professionals |
||||||
|
must spend on largely reactive tasks, such as provisioning, configuration, monitoring and maintenance |
||||||
|
. Additionally, as the need for physical infrastructure decreases, so does the need for the highly-specialized |
||||||
|
personnel required to manage and maintain such environments. |
||||||
|
o Increased Application Availability and Improved Business Continuity |
||||||
|
. Solutions enable organizations to reduce both planned and unplanned downtime in their computing |
||||||
|
environments by allowing them to securely migrate entire virtual environments to separate servers or even |
||||||
|
data center locations without user interruption. |
||||||
|
o Improved Desktop Manageability and Security |
||||||
|
. VMW's desktop virtualization solutions allow IT organizations to efficiently control and secure desktop |
||||||
|
environments to end users regardless of their location, desktop hardware, operating system or business |
||||||
|
application access needs. |
||||||
|
History with EMC Corp (NYSE: EMC, $37bb market cap) |
||||||
|
. VMW was acquired by EMC in January 2004, and prior to this offering operated as a wholly owned |
||||||
|
subsidiary of EMC |
||||||
|
. Immediately following this offering and subject to the closing of the sales of our Class A common stock |
||||||
|
to Intel Capital Corporation and Cisco Systems, Inc. EMC will hold 87% of VMW's outstanding common |
||||||
|
stock and 98% of the combined voting power of outstanding common stock |
||||||
|
Competition |
||||||
|
> Microsoft is the primary competitor for virtualization solutions |
||||||
|
. Microsoft currently provides products that compete with some of VMW's entry-level offerings and has |
||||||
|
announced its intention to provide products that will compete with some of VMW's enterprise-class |
||||||
|
products in the future. |
||||||
|
. VMR has developed its virtualization solutions as a software layer between the hardware and the |
||||||
|
operating system that is not tied to a specific operating system |
||||||
|
. VMR believes its approach is differentiated from Microsoft's and delivers significant flexibility and |
||||||
|
superior economic value to customers. |
||||||
|
> Other |
||||||
|
. Also competes with small companies whose products are based on emerging open-source technologies for |
||||||
|
system virtualization. |
||||||
|
. In addition, competes with companies that take different approaches to virtualization. |
||||||
|
. However, VMR believes these solutions offer limited support for heterogeneous operating system |
||||||
|
deployments. |
||||||
|
. Furthermore, VMR's VMware Infrastructure suite competes with products that provide high availability |
||||||
|
clustering, workload management and resource management. |
||||||
|
Intellectual Property |
||||||
|
. 22 US patents covering various aspects of server virtualization and other technologies |
||||||
|
. The granted United States patents will expire beginning in 2018, with the latest granted patent expiring in |
||||||
|
'2024. |
||||||
|
. Also has numerous United States provisional and non-provisional patent applications pending that cover |
||||||
|
other aspects of virtualization and other technologies. |
||||||
|
Investments by Intel & Cisco |
||||||
|
> Intel |
||||||
|
. Intel Capital, the global investment arm of Intel, has agreed to invest $218.5 million in VMR's Class A |
||||||
|
common stock at $23.00 per share |
||||||
|
. Intel's investment is intended to foster strengthened intercompany collaboration towards accelerating |
||||||
|
VMware virtualization product adoption on Intel architecture and reinforcing the value of virtualization |
||||||
|
technology for customers. |
||||||
|
> Cisco |
||||||
|
In July 2007, Cisco Systems, Inc., or Cisco, agreed to purchase $150mm of Class A common stock from |
||||||
|
EMC at $25.00 per share for an aggregate purchase price of $150.0 million |
||||||
|
Use of $866mm in IPO proceeds from sale of 75.1mm shares |
||||||
|
including 9.5mm shares to be sold to Intel |
||||||
|
o Repay $350.0 million of intercompany indebtedness* owed to EMC; |
||||||
|
o Purchase from EMC VMW's new headquarters facilities for an amount equal to the cost expended by |
||||||
|
EMC to date in constructing the facilities, which totaled approximately $127.0 million |
||||||
|
o For working capital and other general corporate purposes, including to finance growth, develop new |
||||||
|
products and fund capital expenditures and potential acquisitions. |
||||||
|
* the intercompany indebtedness was incurred in April 2007 to fund an $800 million dividend paid to EMC |
||||||
|
in the form of a note. |
||||||
|
=================== |
||||||
|
Financial Performance & Scoring -- © 2007 Gaskins IPO Desktop/IPOdesktop |
||||||
|
Pre-IPO analysis, grading & scoring -- updated August 3 |
||||||
|
. Business Model Rating Criteria |
||||||
|
A = high growth market, potential leader; B = more competitive market; C= 'public venture capital' |
||||||
|
. Calculations |
||||||
|
. IPO Price to annualized Sales Ratio -- (Price / Sales) |
||||||
|
Numerator |
Denominator |
|||||
|
IPO market capitalization… |
Annualized Sales (based on recent results) |
|||||
|
(post-IPO # of shares times mid-point of IPO price range) |
||||||
|
. IPO Price to annualized Earnings (loss) -- (Price / Earnings) |
||||||
|
Numerator |
Denominator |
|||||
|
IPO market cap |
Annualized Earnings (loss) from the last quarter |
|||||
|
=================== |
||||||
|
SEARCH BY COMPANY |
In your browser use 'Edit/Find' to search for companies |
|||||
|
or ticker for analysis |
scheduled below |
|||||
|
=================== |
||||||
|
Aug 6 week IPO schedule |
||||||
|
VALUATION RATIOS |
IPO Mrkt |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
Price / |
% offered |
|
Cap (mm) |
Sales |
Earnings |
BookValue |
TangibleBV |
in IPO |
|
|
Cross Match Tech |
$431 |
4.9 |
-179 |
1.8 |
3.0 |
41% |
|
biometric technologies: C+, 7 |
Post-IPO shrs:29mm |
|||||
|
Cumberland Phar (CPIX) |
$378 |
16.0 |
128 |
3.9 |
3.0 |
25% |
|
acquisition of prescription products: C+, 6.5 |
Post-IPO shrs:25mm |
|||||
|
DemandTec (DMAN) |
$288 |
5.5 |
-60 |
6.0 |
7.5 |
23% |
|
demand mgt softwr for retailiing: C+, 6.5 |
Post-IPO shrs:26mm |
|||||
|
E-House (China) (EJ) |
$933 |
10.1 |
37 |
4.9 |
5.0 |
20% |
|
China real estate services: B-, 9 |
Post-IPO shrs:75mm |
|||||
|
Hireright (HIRE) |
$179 |
2.8 |
37 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
39% |
|
employee screening software: C+, 7 |
Post-IPO shrs:11mm |
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|
Horsehead Holding ZINC |
$646 |
1.1 |
6 |
4.4 |
3.8 |
16% |
|
zinc recyler: C+, 6 |
Post-IPO shrs:34mm |
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|
Masimo Corp (MASI) |
$898 |
3.8 |
51 |
10.4 |
11.0 |
23% |
|
on-invasive patient monitoring: C+, 8 |
Post-IPO shrs:53mm |
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|
MercadoLibre (MELI) |
$745 |
12.0 |
186 |
11.0 |
17.0 |
37% |
|
Online trading platform, Latin Am: C+, 7 |
Post-IPO shrs:44mm |
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Paragon Shipng (PRGN) |
$408 |
n/a |
n/a |
1.6 |
1.6 |
43% |
|
dry bulk shipping: C+, 6 |
Post-IPO shrs:24mm |
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|
Quicksilver Gas LP KGS |
$230 |
10.6 |
-64 |
2.5 |
5.2 |
43% |
|
natural gas processor in Texas: C+, 7 |
Post-IPO shrs:11.5mm |
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Tully's Coffee (TULY) |
$99 |
1.5 |
-11 |
3.5 |
3.6 |
39% |
|
specialty coffee stores: C, 5 |
March fiscal |
Post-IPO shrs:9mm |
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WuXi PharmaTech (WX) |
$720 |
5.3 |
30 |
3.5 |
3.7 |
22% |
|
biopharma R&D outsourcing: B-, 9 |
Post-IPO shrs:60mm |
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=================== |
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SEARCH BY COMPANY |
In your browser use 'Edit/Find' to search for companies |
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or ticker for analysis |
scheduled below |
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Aug 6 week IPO schedule: analysis, grading, scoring < | ||||||